West Virginia vs. Syracuse, Camping World Bowl: Prediction ...

Who's ready for another week of football? Last week was all over the place, but overall was a little bit down in quality from week 2. This week should be back to form, with the SEC kicking off and quite a few ranked vs ranked matchups. What games are the best to watch? Read on to find out. Also, I am only ranking the top 20 games from here on out just to keep me sane. So sorry to all for you Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe fans, among others, as you missed the list. Anyway, here we go.
20) Middle Tennessee vs UTSA (-6.5) - 8:00 Fri., CBS Sports Network: This game wasn't supposed to be in my post. I had USF vs FAU at #14, but Covid happened, so it got postponed. Now we get to see a Friday night showdown in the Alamodome. Middle Tennessee has looked pathetic so far, and this is their last chance to say they have any shot of going over 500. UTSA earned a 2 score win over SFA on Saturday, but they didn't look great. They should be back to their normal form Friday, as they'll get a narrow win.
19) Mississippi State vs LSU (-16.5) - 3:30, CBS: First off, I want to point out that this game also didn't make my original list. I had Tulsa vs Arkansas State at #7, but that got postponed, bumping this game in. Anyway, the Mike Leach era has begun in Starkville. It'll probably take a couple games to get the Air Raid going strong, but it will be fun to watch. LSU lost a ton of talent, but Coach O never backs down from a fight. LSU should be able to jump ahead early, and take this one home pretty comfortably.
18) Georgia State (-2.5) vs Charlotte - Noon, ESPNU: These teams actually have a lot more in common than one would think. Both are relatively new to the FBS, were able to go bowling last season, and look like they will be taking a step back this year. Georgia State looked really good against the Cajuns last week, but fell apart late and lost in OT. Meanwhile, this is a huge game for Charlotte. It's their home opener, and they need a win to prove the can have a shot at a winning record. With both these team's conferences looking very deep this year, a boost of momentum from a win here could be the difference in a winning or losing record.
17) Florida International vs Liberty (-7) - 1:00, ESPN3: These teams may not be known all that well, but this should be a fun shootout. FIU was a pretty good team last year, although it did end with a loss to Arkansas State in a very thrilling Camellia Bowl. They did lose their QB to the NFL though, along with some other talent. Liberty actually kicked off their season last week, earning a 7 point win over Western Kentucky. Those game reps could be the difference here, as that will give them an edge in this close game.
16) Florida State vs Miami (-11) - 7:30, ABC: Hurricanes fans, you should not be proud of that victory last week. That was one of the ugliest games I have ever seen, and unfortunately I think we are in store for another game like that here. The U has been pretty good offensively this year, and that will continue here. FSU has been a different story. They lost to Georgia Tech 2 weeks ago even after the Yellow Jackets missed 4 kicks. Now they are without their Head Coach after he tested positive for Covid. This will be ugly for both team, and an easy win for the U. Gameday should NOT be here at all.
15) North Carolina State vs Virginia Tech (-7) - 8:00, ACC Network: What a game NC State played last week. It was a very exciting game, with the Wolfpack winning 45-42, but it wasn't great defensively. I don't have ACC Network, so I couldn't watch the game, but it had to be ugly if you give up that many. VT is kicking off their season this week and should be about the same level as last year. While the season ended on a sour note losing to Kentucky and Virginia in their final 2 games, they still have a very underrated coach in Fuente. This should be a fun, back-and-forth game.
14) Georgia Southern vs Louisiana (-11.5) - Noon, ESPN2: This is one of those games that I think will be good, but I have no clue why I feel that way. The Cajuns had a pretty thrilling game against Georgia State last week, getting the win in overtime. They may be 2-0, but last week proves they still have work to do. Georgia Southern's triple-option offense will be a good test for this defense. They looked ugly against Campbell, but a ton of players were out. They are back now, and will give the Cajuns a run for their money.
13) Texas (-18) vs Texas Tech - 3:30, Fox: I want to have faith in Texas Tech, but they aren't making me very hopeful so far. They allowed Houston Baptist's QB to throw for 567 yards and 4 TDs. 567! They somehow were still able to get a 35-33 win, but this will be the test of a lifetime for the Red Raider defense. Sam Ehlinger looked great against UTEP in week 1, and the whole team looked amazing in their 59-3 win. This will be another step up, and with a tough challenge from TCU coming next week, this may be a trap. One thing is for sure: there will be tons of points.
12) Georgia Tech (-8) vs Syracuse - Noon, ESPN3: Syracuse's offense has looked pretty terrible to start the season. The Orange have scored 16 points in 2 games, and have averaged a pitiful 187 yards a game. They could be getting desperate for a momentum boost, and here is a good chance for one. GT was holding their own with UCF last week, but couldn't hang around late as they were outscored 21-0 in the 4th. Now they have a long road trip ahead, and could be looking towards the bye week after this. I still have GT winning, but Cuse will hang around.
11) Tulane (-3.5) vs Southern Mississippi - 2:30, Stadium - It's time for a bowl rematch! These teams faced off in last year's Armed Forces Bowl, with Southern Miss going up 13-0 in the first and not scoring the rest of the game, as Tulane won 30-13. This year's affair should be a good bit closer, especially since these teams will be pretty familiar with one another. The Green Wave seem to have a tendency to play in close games this year, with both of their games so far being 27-24. Another 3 point game is fine with me.
10) Florida (-14) vs Mississippi - Noon, ESPN: The Lane Train has rolled into the SEC, as Lane Kiffin is the new Head Coach at Ole Miss. The level of competition here is much tougher than what he had in Conference USA, and that is clear with the first matchup. Florida is coming off and Orange Bowl win, and looks to upend Georgia in the SEC East. Their path to that starts here, in what could be a tricky game to start. Lane Kiffin's play style will be a new test for all SEC teams, and will keep the Rebels in the game for awhile.
9) UAB (-6.5) vs South Alabama - 7:30 Thurs., ESPN: This should be a nice interstate showdown under the lights. Both teams are 1-1, with UAB looking a lot like USF so far, beating a FCS team and losing big time to an ACC team. Unlike USF, the Blazers look to be a contender in Conference USA. South Alabama should be a nice challenge for them. The Jaguars are also 1-1, but have had some closer games. They are about the same level as most upper-tier Conference USA teams, so UAB needs show they can handle their competition. I'd easily recommend watching this over the NFL game tonight.
8) Duke vs Virginia (-5) - 4:00, ACC Network: Duke was VERY underwhelming against BC last Saturday. They had a great performance against Notre Dame week 1, but just couldn't even contend with the Eagles on Saturday. Their offense will need to bring some power, as UVA sure knows how to put up some points. Sure, they lost their QB, but the offense should still have some firepower. Their defense will need to improve from last year to have any shot of making the ACC Championship game again, but for this week, expect a shootout in Charlottesville.
7) Troy vs BYU (-14) - 10:15, ESPN: Who needs Pac-12 After Dark this year when you have Saturday Nights in Provo? Both of these teams absolutely demolished their competition in their first game, but it will be a challenge to keep that up. Troy was very good against MTSU, absolutely crushing the Blue Raiders in nearly every aspect. BYU was lucky that Navy had 0 contact practices before their season, as the Midshipmen were not prepared at all for the game. BYU won 55-3. I love the Cougars this year, but this will be closer than predicted. I see a one-score game, maybe even OT.
6) Tennessee (-3.5) vs South Carolina - 7:30, SEC Network: The first SEC Saturday Night of the year gives us what should be a very good defensive showdown. Tennessee returns quite a few players from a team that finished strong last year, winning their final 6, including the Gator Bowl on their way to an 8-5 record. The Gamecocks, however, weren't able to go bowling, as they really struggled down the stretch. There will be plenty of unknowns in this first game for both teams, but be ready to take the under, and to watch a good old fashioned dogfight.
5) Iowa State (-2.5) vs TCU - 1:30, Fox Sports 1: These are likely the 2 best defenses in the Big 12 this year, and they should make for a great matchup. TCU was supposed to kick off against SMU on the 11th, but that game had to be cancelled. The Horned Frogs lost 6 of their final 8 last year, but with a bunch of guys returning from injury, they can make some things happen this year. Iowa State struggled against the Cajuns, especially on special teams, allowing 2 return TDs in a 31-14 loss. Both defenses will be good here, and this will be a game there 1 mistake could decide it.
4) Louisville vs Pittsburgh (-3) - Noon, ACC Network: Is Pitt a real contender in the ACC? They have looked very strong so far this year, demolishing Austin Peay and looking very good against Syracuse. This, however, will be their first real challenge of the year. Louisville looked very sloppy hosting Miami last week, but there is a chance that could just have been the big game jitters getting to them. They should be able to settle in for this one, which will be a good test to see where they truly stack up in the conference. The winner of this one will gain a lot more respect in the ACC, and this will be a fight to the end.
3) Kentucky vs Auburn (-7.5) - Noon, SEC Network: Another ranked vs ranked matchup, this SEC clash should have plenty of defense to go around. Kentucky is looking to build off of a great 2019, and they get back former starting QB Terry Wilson after losing Lynn Bowden Jr. to the NFL. They'll be ready to ground and pound it behind their solid offensive line, but Auburn will make that tricky. The Tigers return some good players on defense, and as long as Bo Nix is healthy, the Tigers are in good hands. Kentucky won their last game in Auburn in 2009, will there be another upset here? Don't count it out.
2) West Virginia vs Oklahoma State (-7) - 3:30, ABC: That sure was an odd game for Oklahoma State last week. The Pokes lost QB Spencer Sanders to an ankle sprain in the 1st quarter, and got stuck in a defensive slog of a game against Tulsa. Chuba Hubbard couldn't get anything going either, only getting 93 yards on 27 carries. They were able to get a 16-7 win, but it was ugly. WVU blew out Eastern Kentucky in their lone game, but you can't take much from that. The health of Sanders will be a key factor here, and could decide who wins. Whether he plays or not, expect a fun, back-and-forth nailbiter.
1) Army vs Cincinnati (-13.5) - 3:30, ESPN: This week's top game is a good old-fashioned ground and pound showdown. Army has looked fantastic so far, and while they have only played 2 below-average teams, their defense has been incredible. Their triple-option will be a big challenge for Cincy, as they don't face another offense like that at all this year. The Bearcats also looked really good against Austin Peay, but again, you can't take much from that. This will be a fast game where the clock will be running a lot, and the defenses will decide who gets a close win.

I as a college football fan am inspired by the lovely chaos of the game. Every week there's bound to be unexpected outcomes and amazing head-scratching performances by teams. This is an attempt to crown the KING of chaos among all power five teams for 2019. We start with our criteria, three categories were assessed.
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Chaos Score (How Wrong was the Spread)
This is simply looking at, on average, how many points off was the spread from the final result? Logically we can look at the spread for a game as what's "expected" to happen to surely the NCAA king of chaos would constantly be making the pre-game spread look stupid by overperforming or underperforming. This is the most important category.
Top Five Most Predictable Teams

Team	Spread was Within Five Pts	Spread was Within Ten Pts	Average Chaos Score
5. Oklahoma State	8	9	7.5
4. Florida	6	8	7.5
3. Texas	7	8	7.0
2. Alabama	4	9	6.9
1. Iowa	6	9	6.4

Top Ten Most Unpredictable Teams

Team	Top Five Weirdest Games	Biggest Whiff by Spread
10. Illinois	17--21--25--27.5--32	(+31) vs Wisc (Wins 24-23)
9. Kansas State	17.5--18--23--28--31.5	(+24.5) vs OK (Wins 48-41)
8. Syracuse	14.5--15.5--34--41.5--53.5	(+10.5) vs Duke (Wins 49-6)
7. Kansas	19--22--23--41--44	(+20) vs BC (Wins 48-24)
6. Duke	19.5--23.5--30.5--37.5--53.5	(-10.5) vs SYR (Loses 49-6)
5. Miami	21--22--25--25.5--26.5	(-20.5) vs FIU (Loses 30-24)
4. Ohio State	22--24--24--27.5--32.5	(-38.5) vs Miami(OH) (Wins 76-5)
3. Wisconsin	18--27--30--32--39	(-10) vs USF (Wins 39-0)
2. Virginia Tech	21--21--24--37.5--38.5	(-6.5) vs GT (Wins 45-0)
1. Maryland	29.5--41.5--42--48--52.5	(+6.5) vs Penn St (Loses 56-0)

As you can clearly see this shows us the teams that spread could almost never figure out. This metric alone will not give us a college football chaos king by itself because we can all agree that the only thing "chaotic" about Ohio State and Maryland is that they would win and lose by huge margins. A true chaos king also scores highly in the next two factors I considered.
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How Often was the Spread Right?
A true king of chaos in the NCAA finds a way to lose when they are the favorite and win despite being the underdog as regularly as possible. Team that can master this craft of confusing the crap out of their fanbase truly bless us.
Top Fifteen Teams Without Drama

TEAM	Record As Favorite	Record As Underdog	Lone Surprise
15. Texas	7--1	0--4	(-1) vs TCU (Loses 37-27)
14. Minnesota	9--0	1--2	(+6.5) vs PSU (Wins 31-26)
13. Indiana	7--0	1--4	(+2.5) vs NEB (Wins 27-24)
12. Penn State	10--1	0--1	(-6.5) vsMINN (Loses 31-26)
11. Texas A&M	7--1	0--4	(-4.5) vs AUB (Loses 28-20)
10. Florida	9--0	1--2	(+3) vs AUB (Wins 24-13)
9. Rutgers	1--0	1--10	(+7.5) vs Liberty (W 44-34)
8. Oklahoma	12--1	0--0	(-24.5) vs KSU (Loses 48-41)
7. Georgia	11--1	0--1	(-20.5) vs SC (Loses 20-17)
6. Wisconsin	10--1	0--2	(-31) vs ILL (Loses 24-23)
5. LSU	12--0	1--0	(+6) vs ALA (Wins 46-41)
4. Iowa	9--0	0--3	N/A
3. Michigan	9--0	0--3	N/A
2. Clemson	13--0	0--0	N/A
1. Ohio State	13--0	0--0	N/A

The ever consistent Big 10 has 8 of the top 15 and 3 of the 4 teams with no surprises all season. Now we get to the fun part with the teams that the spread was a glorified coin toss.
Top Ten Teams Spread Had No Chance Against

TEAM	Record as Favorite	Record as Underdog	Biggest Surprise
10. Illinois	3--2	3--4	(+31) vs WISC (Wins 24-23)
9. Colorado	1--2	4--5	(+14.5) vs UW (Wins 20-14)
8. Tennessee	3--2	4--3	(-24.5) vs GSU (Loses 38-30)
7. UCLA	1--3	3--5	(+19) vs WSU (Wins 67-63)
6. Boston College	2--2	4--4	(-20) vs KU (Loses 48-24)
5. Kansas State	3--1	5--3	(+31.5) vs OK (Wins 48-41)
4. Virginia Tech	5--3	3--1	(-2.5) vs Duke (Loses 45-10)
3. Arizona State	3--3	4--2	(+16) vs MSU (Wins 10-7)
2. California	2--2	5--3	(+8.5) vs WSU (Wins 33-20)
1. Miami	4--5	2--1	(-20.5) vs FIU (Loses 30-24)

So now we see the teams that could not decide whether they were bad or good but there's one more recipe to chaos that we are missing. The final category incorporates one of the most obvious elements of CFB chaos.
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Point Difference (How Close Were the Games Usually?)
We all know that the most thrilling upsets of the season (think Oklahoma and Wisconsin) and the most incredible near upsets that we saw (Clemson) were all games decided in the final seconds. A true king of chaos not only surprises us by oveunder performing, but they also have a knack for playing close games against every opponent. True chaos teams literally don't care who's on the other sideline, they're going to battle to a close win or tough loss either way. In this category I only cared about close games, so I took the difference between the score and squared it. I capped it at 14 points to really reward teams that kept games inside two possessions. So losing 21-7 and 62-7 meant the same thing.
Top Three Most Boring Seasons

Team	Average Win	Average Loss	One Possession Games
3. Clemson	47--11	X	1
2. Rutgers	46--28	38--7	0
1. Ohio State	49--13	X	0

Top Ten Most Cardiac Arrests From Fans

Team	Average Win	Average Loss	One Possession Games
10. Texas	42--26	33--25	6
9. California	26--18	28--12	6
8. Colorado	31--24	37--18	7
7. TCU	39--18	32--24	7
6. Iowa	28--12	17--12	7
5. Iowa State	42--22	29--25	6
4. Miami	32--12	30--24	8
3. Arizona State	25--16	33--25	7
2. Pittsburgh	27--21	23--11	8
1. North Carolina	35--17	32--28	9

Three of the top four are from the ACC where chaos reigns supreme. Three of the top ten are also from the famous Pac-12 with its legendary Pac-12 After Dark. Also the state of Iowa just loves nail-biters this year. North Carolina was the only P5 school with 9 out of its 12 games being one possession final scores. Now we compile our three factors to create an official top ten chaos teams in the NCAA P5. You can play around and weight these factors differently but I ultimately stuck with the first category as being most important. How far "off" the final score was from what was expected to happen is still the most important thing, so it was weighted at 50% with the other two categories at 25%. I'm incredibly pleased with the final top ten list and I'd love to share it with you. If you want a spoiler for number one then you might notice just one school made a top ten appearance on all THREE categories.
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NUMBER TEN: TCU

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-55) vs Arkansas Pine-Bluff	39--7 (W)	9
(-3) vs Purdue	34--13 (W)	12
(-7.5) vs SMU	38--41 (L)	3
(-15) vs Kansas	51--14 (W)	10
(+5) vs Iowa State	24--49 (L)	11
(-3.5) vs Kansas State	17--24 (L)	4
(+1) vs Texas	37--27 (W)	8
(+2) vs Oklahoma State	27--34 (L)	7
(+2.5) vs Baylor	23--29 (L)	6
(-3.5) vs Texas Tech	33--31 (W)	5
(+18) vs Oklahoma	24--28 (L)	2
(-13.5) vs West Virginia	17--20 (L)	1

The fact that TCU's LEAST shocking result was blowing out Purdue as a 3 point favorite show a lot. One TCU was able to destroy Kansas, knock off Texas, and nearly upset Oklahoma. Meanwhile the same TCU team struggled against SMU, sucked against Iowa State, and then choked against West Virginia with bowl eligibility on the line. Here we have a 5 and 7 team that managed to almost defeat Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State...Incredible.
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NUMBER NINE: CALIFORNIA

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-17) vs UC Davis	27--13 (W)	12
(+13) vs Washington	20--19 (W)	1
(-14) vs North Texas	23--17 (W)	5
(+2.5) vs Ole Miss	28--20 (W)	6
(-4) vs Arizona State	17--24 (L)	3
(+21.5) vs Oregon	7--17 (L)	8
(-11) vs Oregon State	17--21 (L)	2
(+21) vs Utah	0--35 (L)	11
(+8.5) vs Washington State	33--20 (W)	7
(+4) vs USC	17--41 (L)	10
(+2.5) vs Stanford	24--20 (W)	4
(+1) vs UCLA	28--18 (W)	9

Outside of an easy win over UC Davis and a clear loss to Utah, everything else on this schedule is a wild ride. There was one California team that pulled upsets over Washington and Washington State, but there was also a Cal team that was crushed by USC and stunned by Oregon State.
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NUMBER EIGHT: IOWA STATE

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-23) vs Northern Iowa	29--26 (W)	1
(+1.5) vs Iowa	17--18 (L)	9
(-18) vs Louisiana Monroe	72--20 (W)	4
(-2.5) vs Baylor	21--23 (L)	6
(-5) vs TCU	49--24 (W)	10
(-9.5) vs West Virginia	38--14 (W)	12
(-7.5) vs Texas Tech	34--24 (W)	11
(-11) vs Oklahoma State	27--34 (L)	3
(+14.5) vs Oklahoma	41--42 (L)	2
(-7) vs Texas	23--21 (W)	5
(-25) vs Kansas	41--31 (W)	7
(-5) vs Kansas State	17--27 (L)	7

Iowa State fans were already confused from week one with a near embarrassment to Northern Iowa. The next week ISU somehow turned it around but still lost by one to Iowa. In back-to-back games this ISU team lost as big favorite to Oklahoma State and then nearly upset Oklahoma as big underdogs. Every week was a battle for this team with the 5th closest games in the P5.
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NUMBER SEVEN: NEBRASKA

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-35.5) vs South Alabama	35--21 (W)	10
(-4) vs Colorado	31--34 (L)	4
(-14) vs North Illinois	44--8 (W)	9
(-13) vs Illinois	42--38 (W)	2
(+17) vs Ohio State	7--48 (L)	8
(-7.5) vs Northwestern	13--10 (W)	5
(+7.5) vs Minnesota	7--34 (L)	11
(-2.5) vs Indiana	31--38 (L)	6
(-4) vs Purdue	27--31 (L)	3
(+14.5) vs Wisconsin	21--37 (L)	12
(-5) vs Maryland	54--7 (W)	1
(+4.5) vs Iowa	24--27 (L)	7

While we all remember the helpless Nebraska team that lost to Colorado, nearly lost to Illinois, and lost to Purdue, this Cornhuskers squad had a knack for finding close games and ended the season by crushing Maryland and nearly shocking Iowa. This is the third Big12 entrant.
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NUMBER SIX: BOSTON COLLEGE

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(+4.5) vs Virginia Tech	35--28 (W)	4
(-33.5) vs Richmond	45--13 (W)	12
(-20) vs Kansas	24--48 (L)	1
(-8) vs Rutgers	30--16 (W)	11
(+5) vs Wake Forest	24--27 (L)	7
(+4) vs Louisville	39--41 (L)	6
(+3.5) vs NC State	45--24 (W)	8
(+35) vs Clemson	7--59 (L)	9
(+3) vs Syracuse	58--27 (W)	3
(-2.5) vs Florida State	31--38 (L)	5
(+20.5) vs Notre Dame	7--40 (L)	10
(+8.5) vs Pittsburgh	26--19 (W)	2

It was an incredibly frustrating season for Boston College but they squeezed out six wins to still be bowl eligible. There was one BC squad that was able to win as an underdog against Va Tech, NC State, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile the same team shockingly lost by 24(!) to Kansas, and lost three nail-biters to Wake Forest, Louisville, and FSU.
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NUMBER FIVE: KANSAS

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-12) vs Indiana State	24--17 (W)	7
(-7) vs Coastal Carolina	7--12 (L)	4
(+20) vs Boston College	48--24 (W)	2
(+4.5) vs West Virginia	24--29 (L)	8
(+15) vs TCU	14--51 (L)	10
(+32.5) vs Oklahoma	20--45 (L)	11
(+21) vs Texas	48--50 (L)	1
(+6.5) vs Texas Tech	37--34 (W)	5
(+5) vs Kansas State	10--38 (L)	9
(+17.5) vs Oklahoma State	13--31 (L)	12
(+25) vs Iowa State	31--41 (L)	6
(+14) vs Baylor	6--61(L)	3

Here at number five with Kansas things start getting crazy. This is the third Big12 entry on this list. Kansas had a rough season and they had multiple weak showings this season. Almost losing to Indiana State, actually losing to Coastal Carolina, and being dominated by TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor were all low points. Yet what made Kansas so chaotic was somehow that same team crushed Boston College, nearly stunned Texas, battled against Iowa State, and then scored their only conference win over Texas Tech.
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NUMBER FOUR: ILLINOIS

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-18) vs Akron	42--3 (W)	9
(-21.5) vs UConn	31--23 (W)	5
(-7) vs Eastern Michigan	31--34 (L)	3
(+13) vs Nebraska	38--42 (L)	4
(+14) vs Minnesota	17--40 (L)	10
(+24.5) vs Michigan	25--42 (L)	12
(+31) vs Wisconsin	24--23 (W)	1
(+9.5) vs Purdue	24--6 (W)	6
(-19) vs Rutgers	38--10 (W)	10
(+14) vs Michigan State	37--34 (W)	2
(+15.5) vs Iowa	10--19 (L)	8
(-6) vs Northwestern	10--29 (L)	7

Illinois had such a season turnaround. This is the second Big10 team so far and they started the season with a weak performance to UConn and upset loss to EMU. A four game losing streak setup a lost season for the Fighting Illini until BOOM out of nowhere one of the biggest upsets of the year over Wisconsin. They backed it up with another monster win over Purdue as an underdog. Then as a two touchdown underdog against Michigan State they rallied again. Then it swung back in the other direction with an unexpected dud against Northwestern to end the year.
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NUMBER THREE: KANSAS STATE

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-20.5) vs Nicholls State	49--14 (W)	11
(-24) vs Bowling Green	52--0 (W)	8
(+6.5) vs Mississippi State	31--24 (W)	3
(+4) vs Oklahoma State	13--26 (L)	12
(+1) vs Baylor	12--31 (L)	10
(+3.5) vs TCU	24--17 (W)	5
(+24.5) vs Oklahoma	48--41 (W)	1
(-5) vs Kansas	38--10 (W)	9
(+7) vs Texas	24--27 (L)	6
(-13.5) vs West Virginia	20--24 (L)	2
(+2.5) vs Texas Tech	30--27 (W)	4
(+5) vs Iowa State	27--17 (W)	7

The fourth Big 12 school here also manufactured one of the biggest upsets of the year. There was a clear Top-25 Kansas State that destroyed Kansas, handled Mississippi State, took down TCU and Iowa State, and then stunned Oklahoma. There were also disappointments against Texas and especially West Virginia but this KSU squad just kept overperforming week after week.
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NUMBER TWO: VIRGINIA TECH

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(-4.5) vs Boston College	28--35 (L)	7
(-29.5) vs Old Dominion	31--17 (W)	11
(-21.5) vs Furman	24--17 (W)	5
(-2.5) vs Duke	10--45 (L)	4
(+14) vs Miami	42--35 (W)	2
(-28) vs Rhode Island	34--17 (W)	12
(+3.5) vs North Carolina	43--41 (W)	6
(+17.5) vs Notre Dame	20--21 (L)	1
(+2) vs Wake Forest	36--17 (W)	10
(-6.5) vs Georgia Tech	45--0 (W)	3
(-4) vs Pittsburgh	28--0 (W)	9
(-2.5) vs Virginia	30--39 (L)	8

Virginia Tech had an insane start to the season. First they lose to Boston College, then they struggled as big favorites over Old Dominion, then they nearly lose to Furman, and cap it off with an embarrassment against Duke. Then as big underdogs to Miami they scored a win. The season turned around with a late win over UNC, nearly shocking Notre Dame, DOMINATING Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh. Then right at the end a loss to Virginia.
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NUMBER ONE: MIAMI

(Spread) vs Opponent	Final Score	Chaos Rank
(+7) vs Florida	20--24 (L)	8
(-4.5) vs North Carolina	25--28 (L)	6
(-41) vs Bethune-Cookman	63--0 (W)	10
(-30.5) vs Central Michigan	17--12 (W)	1
(-14) vs Virginia Tech	35--42 (L)	4
(-2.5) vs Virginia	17--9 (W)	9
(-18) vs Georgia Tech	21--28 (L)	3
(+6) vs Pittsburgh	16--12 (W)	5
(+2.5) vs Florida State	27--10 (W)	11
(-7) vs Louisville	52--27 (W)	12
(-20.5) vs FIU	24--30 (L)	2
(-9.5) vs Duke	17--27 (L)	7

Truly nobody was king in all three categories quite like Miami. This is a Miami team that made absolutely no sense. On one hand they almost beat Florida, BUT then they lost to NC, BUT then they smoked Bethune-Cookman, BUT then they barely escaped with a win against Central Michigan and lost as big favorites to Virginia Tech, BUT then they turned it around with a close win over Virginia ONLY to suck again against Georgia Tech BUT THEN another turnaround to upset Pittsburgh AND Florida State as underdogs. All of this culminates in taking a three game winning streak and somehow choking to FIU and Duke in back to back weeks. Insane season of ups and downs (but mostly downs) for Miami they are team Chaos.
XXX
Top Twenty Team Chaos Rankings

Team	Chaos Rank (64 Tms)	Spread Correct?	Close Game (64 Tms)	Final Score
20. Washington State	24	9 out of 12	27	63
19. Purdue	34	7 out of 12	16	63
18. Syracuse	8	9 out of 12	58	64
17. Colorado	39	6 out of 12	8	64
16. Missouri	17	8 out of 12	44	66
15. Pittsburgh	36	8 out of 12	2	66
14. Maryland	1	10 out of 12	50	67
13. Tennessee	23	6 out of 12	36	67
12. UCLA	18	6 out of 12	37	70
11. Duke	6	8 out of 12	52	71
10. TCU	26	8 out of 12	7	73
9. California	31	5 out of 12	9	73
8. Iowa State	22	9 out of 12	5	73
7. Nebraska	15	9 out of 12	15	75
6. Boston College	13	6 out of 12	35	76
5. Kansas	7	9 out of 12	23	78
4. Illinois	10	7 out of 12	20	82
3. Kansas State	9	6 out of 12	11	88
2. Virginia Tech	2	6 out of 12	25	88
1. Miami	5	5 out of 12	4	95

As I was putting this together I thought of some improvements to the model and some other things to research but I loved getting to share this and I hope you enjoyed it. If this gets enough love I'll go through and look at G5 teams as well as releasing my data that I collected.

This is a weekly thread to discuss football in the ACC. Discussion should be limited to football in this conference. You should also go check out ACC, the subreddit for ACC sports!
Hey there, guys! It's your host of the ACC Discussion Thread, YellowSkarmory, back for post-week 2's post!
What happened, what's going to happen?:
Quick recap/preview: Week 2 happened, being kicked off with 2 Friday games inside the ACC! Virginia easily beat W&M and Wake beat Rice, but that's not the major point - not including ACC games, the ACC went 11-1. However, only 2 of those games were against P5 opponents, which they split, and against FBS teams they only went 6-1. The major game last week was Clemson-Texas A&M, which Clemson won by 14. This upcoming week, there's not all that much to look forward to; Clemson does travel to Syracuse though, along with another in-conference clash of FSU @ Virginia, and a technically OOC game between UNC and Wake Forest that is one of 2 of our midweek games, along with Kansas traveling to BC.
Last week's games:
OOC:
William & Mary 17 @ 52 #25 Virginia
Wake Forest 41 @ 21 Rice
Ohio 10 @ 20 Pittsburgh
#23 Syracuse 20 @ 63 Maryland
Old Dominion 17 @ 31 Virginia Tech
Western Carolina 0 @ 41 NC State
South Florida 10 @ 14 Georgia Tech
#11 Texas A&M 10 @ 24 #1 Clemson
Richmond 13 @ 45 Boston College
UL-Monroe 44 @ 45 Florida State (OT)
NC A&T 13 @ 45 Duke
Eastern Kentucky 0 @ 42 Louisville
In-conference:
Miami (FL) 25 @ 28 North Carolina
BYE:
Everybody played last week!
This week's games:
OOC:
#25 North Carolina @ Wake Forest - Friday, September 13th (6:00 PM ET) - NOTE: This is technically an OOC game.
Kansas @ Boston College - Friday, September 13th (7:00 PM ET)
Pittsburgh @ #12 Penn State - Saturday, September 14th (12:00 PM ET)
NC State @ West Virginia - Saturday, September 14th (12:00 PM ET)
Furman @ Virginia Tech - Saturday, September 14th (12:00 PM ET)
The Citadel @ Georgia Tech - Saturday, September 14th (12:30 PM ET)
Louisville vs. Western Kentucky - Saturday, September 14th (4:00 PM ET) - In Nashville, TN.
Bethune-Cookman @ Miami (FL) - Saturday, September 14th (4:00 PM ET)
Duke @ Middle Tennessee - Saturday, September 14th (7:00 PM ET)
In-conference:
#1 Clemson @ Syracuse - Saturday, September 14th (7:30 PM ET)
Florida State @ #24 Virginia - Saturday, September 14th (7:30 PM ET)
BYE:
Everybody plays this week!
Points of Discussion:

• Florida State barely escapes UL-Monroe in OT with another 2nd half struggle.
• Clemson beats Texas A&M 24-10.
• Maryland destroys Syracuse.
• Virginia Tech does get revenge on Old Dominion.
• UNC takes out Miami in a close game.
• Clemson travels to Syracuse to try and beat them on the road as revenge for their 2017 loss.
• Pitt travels to Penn State in a rivalry game.
• UNC and Wake Forest play in a game that's technically an OOC game.
• CCG Predictions?

Conference Standings:

Team	Conf. Record	Record
ATLANTIC	DIVISION	STANDINGS
Boston College	1-0	2-0
#1 Clemson	1-0	2-0
NC State	0-0	2-0
Wake Forest	0-0	2-0
Florida State	0-0	1-1
Louisville	0-0	1-1
Syracuse	0-0	1-1
COASTAL	DIVISION	STANDINGS
#25 North Carolina	1-0	2-0
#24 Virginia	1-0	2-0
Duke	0-0	1-1
Georgia Tech	0-1	1-1
Pittsburgh	0-1	1-1
Virginia Tech	0-1	1-1
Miami (FL)	0-1	0-2

Previous threads:
Pre-CCG Last Season (Final)
Post-Week 0
Post-Week 1
I pulled the rankings from the CFB poll. Enjoy!

Change of plans for today's bubble watch! Penn State's CommMedia website is acting very slow and refuses to allow me to upload my article, so I'm just pasting the body of the text here instead. Enjoy!
We’re in the homestretch. Selection Sunday is now less than a week away, and soon, televisions and computer monitors across the nation will be filled with the spectacle that is March Madness, as thousands of fans will watch in awe to see whether or not their bracket has already been busted.
Before the madness can ensue, there’s still a week of conference tournament zaniness to be had, as teams on the bubble will be making their final pushes to show the selection committee why they deserve an invitation to the big dance.
A handful of teams have already secured their spots in March via the automatic bid, earned by winning the conference tournament championship game. Others don’t have that security blanket and will be hoping to hear their name called via at-large invite.
As we do every week with Bauer’s Bubble Watch, we’ll assess each of these at-large contenders by evaluating their tournament résumés, composed of predictive and performance metrics, quadrant wins and losses, various selection committee statistics and other useful numbers. Those numbers will tell us whether a team merits the designation of “lock,” “safe for now” or “bubble”: our three categories, listed in descending order of safety.
This week, there are three more locks and six more bubbles popped, but there’s no more time for introductions. This is March, and this is 2020’s sixth edition of Bauer’s Bubble Watch.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Virginia
Safe for now:
Bubble: NC State
No doubt about it now: the defending champs will be returning to the postseason. Saturday’s victory over Louisville secures Virginia into the bracket and officially dispels all worry of the ACC being a three-bid league.
The only question for the ACC is whether or not it can get a fifth representative in March. The answer lies in how NC State finishes the year. While the Wolfpack ended the regular season on a positive note by knocking off Wake Forest, they still have work to do. Their metric rankings of No. 54 in NET, No. 51 in KenPom and No. 54 in SOR present a very much borderline case for inclusion in the field. An early exit in the ACC tournament would almost certainly send NC State to the NIT for the second-straight year. The Wolfpack will need to win one, maybe two games to show the selection committee that they merit serious discussion for an at-large bid.
Notre Dame’s bubble finally pops after blowing a late 13-point lead to Florida State last Wednesday. The Fighting Irish will be joined in the NIT by Syracuse and Clemson, the latter of which was making an interesting bubble case a week ago. Then the Tigers dropped their final two regular-season games to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. That’s college basketball for you.
American
Locks: Houston
Safe for now:
Bubble: Wichita State, Cincinnati, Memphis
It’s the same three AAC teams on the bubble that have been there most of the past month. Like usual, the conference’s best case for a second representative is Wichita State, as the Shockers have the metrics of a team that merits inclusion (No. 41 in NET, No. 39 in KenPom, No. 31 in KPI, No. 33 in SOR, etc.). But the lack of quality wins is really killing them. Their only Q1 victories are over teams ranked 59th and 61st in NET. Is that going to cut it? Maybe not. The Shockers will need a deep run in the conference tournament to feel any veil of safety.
A quick glance at the numbers shows that Cincinnati (No. 45 in KenPom, No. 28 in KPI, No. 47 in SOR) is in nearly the same boat as Wichita State; that is, until one sees the Bearcats’ four Quadrant 3 losses. Those losses aren’t going away any time soon. The saving grace is that the Bearcats own a head-to-head sweep of Wichita State and a season split with Houston, but that may not be enough for the selection committee to give them the go-ahead. It is worth noting that the Bearcats have won the AAC tournament each of the past two years. You better believe that they’re eyeing up a third-straight championship.
It’s looking like it’s a case of too little, too late for Memphis. The Tigers have won four of the last six, but their skids in late January and mid-February appear to have sunk their metrics to a point beyond recovery. Even a strong showing in the conference tournament would probably be too little. Auto-bid and NIT could be the Tigers’ only options at this point.
It’s worth pointing out that Tulsa will share the AAC regular season title despite not being on the bubble. What a bizarre conference.
Atlantic 10
Locks: Dayton
Safe for now:
Bubble: Richmond, Rhode Island
What was once an unlikely dream is starting to look like it could be a reality. Richmond is looking for its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011, and the Spiders are playing their way there. They’ve won nine of their last 10, most recently avoiding traps set by Davidson and Duquesne by defeating both foes by double-digit margins. Now sitting at 24-7 with the No. 37 NET and a modest 3-4 Q1 record, Richmond is right in the mix for an at-large bid. The only path for Richmond to feel completely safe is to win the A-10 tournament outright, but a respectable run in the postseason capped off with a loss to Dayton in the title game would probably have the Spiders on the right side of the bubble.
On the flip side, the tournament dream is quickly fading to black for Rhode Island. The Rams have won just three times in the past month, and two of those victories were over Q4 opponents. The metrics are quickly sinking, as now only KPI ranks above No. 45. Add those marks to a Q3 loss at Brown and just one Q1 victory over VCU in January, and it’s not looking pretty for Rhode Island. It’s possible that the Rams’ only path to March Madness is through the conference auto-bid.
Saint Louis is such a long shot that it probably doesn’t deserve to be mentioned as “on the bubble,” but the Billikens are making a compelling argument to get back there. Since being declared out of the running in mid-February, the Billikens have rattled off five straight wins heading into conference tournament play, one of those being Q1. While the at-large dream is likely still dead, a run to the A-10 championship game could have some experts thinking otherwise. Let’s put a pin in Saint Louis for now and check back in a few days.
Big East
Locks: Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Marquette
Safe for now: Providence
Bubble: Xavier
What else can be said about Providence? Six straight victories have capped off the regular season and one of the most unbelievable ascents in recent history, so much so that the Friars are now safely in the field just a month after being completely out of the conversation. Those four Q3/Q4 losses might prevent Providence from ever becoming a lock, but with seven Q1 wins and a plethora of top-45 metrics on the Friars’ résumé, it’s nearly impossible to imagine a world in which they are excluded from the tournament.
The only reason that Xavier doesn’t quite have the same safety as Providence is because of the Q1 record disparity (7-8 vs. 3-11), but it appears that the Musketeers are on the right side of the bubble. No major metric ranks worse than their BPI of No. 49, and their worst loss is a Q2 defeat at Wake Forest back in December. A first-round exit from the Big East tournament via loss to DePaul is probably the only way that Xavier could earn consideration for being left out of the field. Better win that game to remove any doubt.
It’s time to put Georgetown to bed. The Hoyas’ once-promising season has turned to ash with six consecutive losses to close out the year, putting Patrick Ewing’s squad at 15-16 overall and 5-13 in conference. Even an appearance in the NIT is not a lock. Should the committee abide by its old standards of “must be .500 to participate,” the Hoyas could be postseason-less in March.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State, Illinois
Safe for now:
Bubble: Indiana, Rutgers, Purdue
That’ll do, Illini. Illinois’ victory over Iowa on Sunday removes any inch of doubt. The Fighting Illini will be back in March Madness for the first time since 2013.
A big missed opportunity keeps Indiana on the bubble. The Hoosiers had the chance to put a Q1 win over Wisconsin on the team sheet, but a 16-5 run by the Badgers to close the game ended any talk of that. While most metrics point to the Hoosiers as a tournament team, one has to wonder if their low NET (No. 60) and 4-8 record down the stretch will cause the selection committee to have second thoughts. It would be in the Hoosiers’ best interest to defeat Nebraska in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament to preserve the résumé from any further damage.
Rutgers might be dancing for the first time in three decades. The Scarlet Knights took down Maryland at home on Tuesday then clawed out a monumental road victory over Purdue in overtime on Saturday. That win puts the Scarlet Knights at 19-11 overall and gives them their second win away from the RAC this season. Still, a 2-10 record outside of Piscataway is nothing to feel comfortable about. A win over Michigan in the first round of the Big Ten tournament would go a long way.
Is it time to close the book on Purdue? Perhaps. The Boilermakers are 16-15, and a loss of any kind in the conference tournament would bring the second column’s count up to 16. No at-large team has ever had 16 losses entering the tourney. Then again, no 16-loss tournament contender has ever had all three main predictive measures in the top 25. But when you reel in the big picture, it’s easy to see that the Boilermakers’ postseason hopes are on thin ice. Like a handful of teams mentioned above, it might be auto-bid-or-bust time for Purdue.
Any talk of the Big Ten being a 12-bid league is officially dead with Minnesota being removed from the watch. At 14-16, the best that the Golden Gophers can finish without winning the automatic bid is 18-17. Needless to say, that’s not going to cut it.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
Safe for now:
Bubble: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas
Oklahoma may have just saved its season. Following two résumé-boosting wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech, the Sooners appeared to be back on a downswing after being beat by Texas at the buzzer. What seemed like a surefire loss at TCU was ready to sink them even lower, but, incredibly, Oklahoma came back from 19 down in the second half to win in Fort Worth: a victory commanded by Austin Reaves’ 41 points. Some aspects of the team sheet still leave questions unanswered for the Sooners, but they definitely seem to be a lot safer than many other bubble teams right now.
It’s time for Texas Tech to panic. What once seemed like a guaranteed invite to the big dance has vanished in thin air thanks to a four-game slide to end the regular season. The No. 22 NET may save the Red Raiders from being on the outside looking in, but other numbers (No. 64 in KPI, No. 56 in SOR, 3-10 Q1 record) are doing their best to drag them to the NIT. Texas Tech needs to stop the bleeding with a win in the Big 12 tournament before it’s too late to recover.
Three weeks’ work of climbing out of bubble hell, vaporized in an instant. This is the story of the Texas Longhorns, which were deemed toast by many experts after a blowout loss at Iowa State on Feb. 15. While Shaka Smart’s crew has done a fine job digging itself out of a sizable hole, all that effort could be for naught following the Longhorns’ stunning 22-point defeat to Oklahoma State on senior night. Thursday brings the Big 12 quarterfinal matchup between Texas and Texas Tech. There may be no bigger remaining bubble game in any conference.
Like Saint Louis, another team not on the bubble but one to keep an eye on is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys probably can’t earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament without taking home the Big 12’s auto-bid, but you should take a look at their résumé anyway. You may be surprised.
Pac-12
Locks: Oregon, Colorado, Arizona
Safe for now: USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA
The predictive metrics may not like USC, but the bubble watch does. The Trojans have flipped a concerning 2-5 spell in February into a 3-0 regular-season finish, taking down Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA in the process. The Trojans now enter the conference tournament with a 22-9 record, rising NET and performance metric scores, and four Q1 wins. Even a loss in the quarterfinals should keep the Trojans in the field of 68.
A concerning slide for Arizona State finally stopped with a win over Washington State on Saturday, but that victory isn’t enough to keep the Sun Devils from falling back into bubble territory. Yes, the Sun Devils possess five Q1 wins and no loss worse than Q2, but the numbers are so unkind to the Sun Devils that they merit a good bit of worry (No. 52 in NET, No. 64 in KenPom, No. 68 in BPI, No. 65 in Sagarin, No. 43 in SOR). A premature loss in the Pac-12 tournament could send the Sun Devils to Dayton for the third-straight year.
An 0-2 road trip in Oregon ends Stanford’s season on a sour note, but the Cardinal’s bubble hopes are far from dead. Four Q1 wins and the No. 30 NET are the standout pieces of their résumé, and a KenPom ranking of No. 38 isn’t bad either. But the Cardinal are likely eyeing a trip to Dayton or a No. 1 seed in the NIT at the present moment. They’ll need one more win at minimum before Selection Sunday arrives.
The climb couldn’t last forever. UCLA’s seven-game winning streak and hopes of winning the Pac-12 regular season were dashed by USC in the Galen Center on Saturday. That result is not the nail in the coffin for the Bruins’ tournament aspirations, but the résumé numbers (No. 76 in NET, No. 77 in KenPom, No. 93 in BPI, No. 59 in SOR) are very hard to ignore. Mick Cronin’s group likely needs to whip up another run: this time in the Pac-12 tournament.
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Auburn, LSU
Safe for now: Florida
Bubble: Arkansas, Mississippi State
A lock appeared to be in Florida’s future with a big home win over Kentucky, but the Gators blew an 18-point second-half lead, and they’ll stay in “safe for now” territory as a result. A first-round SEC tournament exit is the only conceivable way that Florida could be left out of the big dance, and even that seems dubious. The elusive lock may come not with victory but with time.
The one thing that Arkansas couldn’t do down the stretch was lose to a team that it wasn’t supposed to, and it did just that. Wednesday’s win over LSU immediately goes out the window with Saturday’s loss at Texas A&M. The Razorbacks now enter the SEC tournament with metrics right on the borderline and a subpar 7-11 conference record. It’s hard to imagine Arkansas finding a spot in March without at least two wins in Nashville this week.
Mississippi State found a way to hang on to the bubble with Saturday’s stomping of Ole Miss, but the Bulldogs sure would have liked to flip Tuesday’s defeat to South Carolina into a win. The week’s split means no upward or downward movement, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but remember, the Bulldogs are on the outside looking in right now. It’s time to get to work in the conference tournament.
It was a brutal week in the SEC elsewhere, as the bubble has burst for three tournament hopefuls. The most obvious choice is Alabama, as the Crimson Tide finished their season with a whimper, falling to Vanderbilt and Missouri by a combined 27 points. South Carolina is now eliminated too following a similarly bad loss to the Commodores.
Tennessee would have become a very interesting bubble case following the comeback victory at Rupp Arena on Tuesday, but last week’s watch explicitly stated that a 2-0 regular-season finish was required to remain on the page, and the Volunteers got smacked by Auburn at home in the season finale. That should put the lid on Tennessee’s season.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga, San Diego State, BYU, Utah State
Safe for now: Saint Mary’s
Bubble: East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa
For mid-major programs, the auto-bid is a heavenly gift, and Utah State became the weekend’s first recipient by downing San Diego State in the Mountain West conference tournament title game. That means that the Aggies become a lock via technicality, and they won’t have to sweat out an at-large invitation on Selection Sunday. For what it’s worth, former bubble watch candidate Liberty did the same thing too on Sunday afternoon.
Last week, we asked Saint Mary’s to win a game in the WCC tournament in order to jump ranks, and this week, the Gaels delivered, defeating Pepperdine in the quarterfinals. At this point, the only marks on the résumé that could keep Saint Mary’s out are a low Q1 win total and two Q3 losses, but the remaining numbers (No. 31 in NET, No. 37 in KenPom, No. 31 in SOR, etc.) should easily overshadow those results. A Gaels victory over BYU on Monday night would warrant an official lock.
East Tennessee State remains the most likely mid-major candidate to earn an at-large invite should it fail to win its conference tournament, but that idea has now been put into question. Previously, it was assumed that this hypothetical loss would be to either Furman or UNC Greensboro, resulting in an OK Q2 loss. But those teams were upset in the conference tournament, leaving a Q3 contest against 17-15 Wofford as the Buccaneers’ one remaining roadblock. Would a loss to the Terriers leave ETSU feeling as secure? Probably not. It’s likely for the best to just go the Utah State route and win the whole thing outright.
Northern Iowa now plays the excruciating waiting game. The Panthers failed to win the Missouri Valley conference tournament, falling to Drake in the quarterfinals. That’s a Q3 loss, which wouldn’t be so bad if not for the fact that it came by 21 points. The at-large option is UNI’s only way into the tournament now, and at the present moment, it appears rather unlikely. The Panthers may be 23-6 overall, but with just one Q1 win, three Q3 losses, the No. 48 NET and other unfavorable metrics, the tournament could be out of reach. All that UNI can do now is sit, watch and hope.

This is a weekly thread to discuss football in the ACC. Discussion should be limited to football in this conference. You should also go check out ACC, the subreddit for ACC sports!
Hey there, guys! It's your host of the ACC Discussion Thread, YellowSkarmory, back for post-week 3's post!
What happened, what's going to happen?:
Quick recap/preview: Week 3 happened, with 2 friday games again! This time, Wake beat UNC in a close, technically OOC game, while Boston College somehow got killed by Kansas. Some other major game results include Clemson beating Syracuse by 35 on the road, and Virginia surviving FSU. Overall, the ACC (not including games between 2 ACC teams) went 4-4, 0-3 against other P5 teams, 2-0 against G5 teams and 2-1 against FCS teams (thanks Georgia Tech). Next week, we see no weekday games and not all that much interesting; there is 1 game between an ACC team and another P5 team, BC @ Rutgers (not counting in-conference games), and probably the biggest game will be UCF @ Pittsburgh. App State @ UNC has potential to be interesting as well. Louisville travels to FSU in the only in-conference game.
Last week's games:
OOC:
#25 North Carolina 18 @ 24 Wake Forest - NOTE: This was technically an OOC game.
Kansas 48 @ 24 Boston College
Pittsburgh 10 @ 17 #12 Penn State
NC State 27 @ 44 West Virginia
Furman 17 @ 24 Virginia Tech
The Citadel 27 @ 24 Georgia Tech (OT)
Louisville 38 vs. 21 Western Kentucky - In Nashville, TN.
Bethune-Cookman 0 @ 63 Miami (FL)
Duke 41 @ 18 Middle Tennessee
In-conference:
#1 Clemson 41 @ 6 Syracuse
Florida State 24 @ 31 #24 Virginia
BYE:
Everybody played last week!
This week's games:
OOC:
Boston College @ Rutgers - Saturday, September 21st (12:00 PM ET)
Western Michigan @ Syracuse - Saturday, September 21st (12:00 PM ET)
Elon @ Wake Forest - Saturday, September 21st (12:00 PM ET)
#12 UCF @ Pittsburgh - Saturday, September 21st (3:30 PM ET)
Appalachian State @ North Carolina - Saturday, September 21st (3:30 PM ET)
Central Michigan @ Miami (FL) - Saturday, September 21st (4:00 PM ET)
Old Dominion @ #21 Virginia - Saturday, September 21st (7:00 PM ET)
Ball State @ NC State - Saturday, September 21st (7:00 PM ET)
Charlotte @ #1 Clemson - Saturday, September 21st (7:30 PM ET)
In-conference:
Louisville @ Florida State - Saturday, September 21st (3:30 PM ET)
BYE:
Duke (2-1) - Not much to say here; they got killed by Alabama and have handled NC A&T/MTSU solidly.
Georgia Tech (1-2) - How did you lose to The Citadel? This should not have been a struggle, considering they beat an FBS team in South Florida.
Virginia Tech (2-1) - Gonna have to manage to stop nearly losing to teams you shouldn't be losing to. Old Dominion was in the game until late in the 4th quarter, and Furman was up at the half and only lost by 7.
Points of Discussion:

• Wake Forest moves to 3-0 after a win over a ranked UNC.
• Kansas blows out Boston College and West Virginia beats NC State by 3 scores.
• Penn State beats Pitt in a low scoring game.
• VT and Georgia Tech struggle against FCS opponents, with GT falling to Citadel in OT.
• Clemson destroys Syracuse and Virginia survives FSU in the 2 in-conference showdowns this week.
• Boston College travels to Rutgers.
• UCF travels to Pitt and App State travels to UNC in 2 games with strong G5 teams in them.
• Louisville travels to FSU in the only in-conference game.
• Upset predictions?
• CCG predictions?

Conference Standings:

Team	Conf. Record	Record
ATLANTIC	DIVISION	STANDINGS
#1 Clemson	2-0	3-0
Boston College	1-0	2-1
Wake Forest	0-0	3-0
Louisville	0-0	2-1
NC State	0-0	2-1
Florida State	0-1	1-2
Syracuse	0-1	1-2
COASTAL	DIVISION	STANDINGS
#21 Virginia	2-0	3-0
North Carolina	1-0	2-1
Duke	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	0-1	2-1
Georgia Tech	0-1	1-2
Miami (FL)	0-1	1-2
Pittsburgh	0-1	1-2

Previous threads:
Pre-CCG Last Season (Final)
Post-Week 0
Post-Week 1
Post-Week 2
I pulled the rankings from the CFB poll. Enjoy!

What’s up guys
This is the seventh installment in an effort to simulate the 2019 college football season. If you’re unfamiliar with how the series works, you can read the introductory post here
Thanks to the 335 voters who participated this week!
College GameDay: In a surprise to no one, GameDay is in Dallas for the Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma Oklahoma and Texas Texas. Both teams are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 and it could be the most important RRS in a decade.
Notable Results:
• Nebraska #19 Nebraska narrowly gets past Minnesota Minnesota. PJ Fleck’s squad were in position to get the win with a 33 yard FG but the Huskers special teams come in clutch and block the kick! The Huskers hold on and are now bowl eligible.
• Trevor Lawrence has arguably his best performance in his short career. He throws for 5 TD’s and over 500 yards as Clemson #1 Clemson absolutely guts Florida State Florida State, 59-7.
• Herm Edwards’ Arizona State Sun Devils are struggling as they lose by 3 TD’s to Washington State Washington State.
• Georgia #10 Georgia gets back on the winning side of things. The Dawgs don’t have much of an issue with South Carolina South Carolina and they win comfortably.
• In what is the closest game of Week 7, LSU #7 LSU hands Florida #5 Florida their first loss of the season. The Tigers were trailing by 5 with less than 1:45 left in the game but Joe Burrow was able to issue a surgical drive that ends in a TD. LSU wins by 1 point!
• Coming off a huge upset over Georgia, Tennessee #24 Tennessee suffers a letdown and gets beaten by Mississippi State Mississippi State.
• It’s a classic Big 12 shootout between Texas Tech Texas Tech and [Baylor](#f/baylor] Baylor. In a game that has a combined 14 Touchdowns, Baylor is able to score last to get the win.
• Iowa State #15 Iowa State just keeps on winning, this time over West Virginia West Virginia. At 6-0, is it time to start putting the Cyclones in the Playoff discussion?
• Houston Houston knocks off Cincinnati Cincinnati in AAC action. The Bearcats are a mere 3-3 and aren’t living up to preseason expectations.
• It’s time for the Red River Rivalry! It’s Texas #6 Texas vs. Oklahoma #4 Oklahoma. In a game where people were expecting a lot of offense, it’s the defenses that actually put on the show in the 1st quarter. Both teams have 2 possessions each in the 1st quarter but no one can get anything going. The 1st quarter ends scoreless. Texas opens scoring in the 2nd quarter with a 41 yard FG. The teams exchange punts after that until Oklahoma is able to get it going on offense, Jalen Hurts leads the Sooners on an 81 yard drive that ends with a 16 yard TD pass to Ceedee Lamb. Late in the first half, the Longhorns are driving but Sam Ehlinger is stripped while back to pass! Oklahoma recovers and is able to put a quick TD drive together to go up 14-3 at the half. Texas comes out fired up and scores on the very first play out of the gate, a 74 yard bomb from Ehlinger to Collin Johnson. The teams score 2 more TD’s apiece to put it at 28-24 Oklahoma. With 4:00 left in the game, Texas is driving but Sam Ehlinger is rocked from his blindside and AGAIN fumbles the football. The Sooners are able to put a nifty drive together that bleeds the clock down. They settle for a FG and Texas gets the ball back with enough time for one more drive to try and tie the game up. They get into OU territory but the Oklahoma defense makes a nice stand on 4th down. Sooners win 31-24!
• Akron Akron get their first win of the season over Kent State Kent State.
• Army Army just keeps on chugging along, they get a win over Western Kentucky Western Kentucky. The Black Knights are 6-0 and are in good position to get into a NY6 bowl game.
• In a close rivalry game, Notre Dame #9 Notre Dame prevails over USC USC. The Trojans are gonna have a lot of work to do to even make a bowl game at 2-4.
RNGesus Answers The Prayer!
• Syracuse The Orange are not living up to the hype in 2019! NC State NC State knock off Syracuse. ‘Cuse is really missing Eric Dungey as their QB play has struggled all year.
• Nighttime Kinnick strikes again! Undefeated Penn State #12 Penn State falls to Iowa Iowa in a sloppy performance.
• Undefeated no more! USF #23 USF has its worst game of the year and are beaten by 1 win BYU BYU!
• Geoff Collins gets his first ACC win as a head coach, his Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets go into Durham and pull a nice little upset over Duke Duke.
• Kentucky Kentucky just aren’t the same team they were one year ago. The Wildcats are upset by Arkansas Arkansas at home. Kentucky falls to 0-4 in the SEC, but on the flip side, the Razorbacks notch their first conference win since 2017.
• Missouri #21 Missouri loses a stunner at home! Ole Miss Ole Miss comes into Columbia and shocks the Tigers! A lot of analysts were predicting them to get off to an 8-0 start but the Rebels put those talks to bed. Ole Miss is having a lot better season than expected as they’re 5-2 and one win away from bowl eligibility.
• UAB UAB lose their first game of the season. UTSA UTSA notch a nice little home upset win!
Top 25 Poll
1. Clemson Clemson
2. Alabama Alabama
3. Oklahoma Oklahoma
4. Ohio State Ohio State
5. LSU LSU
6. Utah Utah
7. Notre Dame Notre Dame
8. Georgia Georgia
9. Florida Florida
10. Texas Texas
11. Stanford Stanford
12. Oregon Oregon
13. Iowa State Iowa State
14. Michigan Michigan
15. Texas A&M Texas A&M
16. Washington Washington
17. Michigan State Michigan State
18. Nebraska Nebraska
19. Penn State Penn State
20. Army Army
21. Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
22. Mississippi State Mississippi State
23. Memphis Memphis
24. Ole Miss Ole Miss
25. Purdue Purdue
Full Results and Standings
CLICK HERE for all the results from this weeks game and the upcoming schedule!
CLICK HERE for team by team results and schedules!
CLICK HERE for updated conference standings and team records!
Please upvote this post for maximum visibility. The more votes we get, hopefully the more representative this simulation is of CFB’s predictions and also hopefully as realistic as possible.
And finally...
Click here to make your Week 8 Predictions

Years of assembling the Watch Grid (your weekly guide to the likely most watch-worthy college football games throughout each schedule) has led to me (Jason) becoming defensive of each weekend's slate.
"Every college football weekend is a good college football weekend," this newsletter frequently insists, a philosophy that faces some stiff tests from time to time.
2019's Week 3 is among the stiffest I can recall. But it'll be fun!! You'll all see!!!
As always, remember the Watch Grid does not base things entirely on team quality. The Watch Grid would often rather watch two bad teams goof through overtime than watch a competent team handle business. National and conference stakes are still worth consideration, but Week 3 does not have those.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
As far as I can tell, there are no televised college football games. Why do we surrender these early Thursdays to Bengals-Buccaneers or whatever? I think every ACC game should be played on Thursday. Then again, this is probably not the CFB weekend schedule that could stand to be spread out any more than it is.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

ET	WATCH THIS	Maybe watch	It’s football
6		North Carolina at Wake Forest, ESPN
7:30			Kansas at Boston College, ACC
9:15	#22 Washington State at Houston, ESPN

Not a terrible start! All three games could feature activity! UNC-Wake is a non-conference game, which is weird as shit, and could be plenty enjoyable! Wazzu-Houston could crack 100 points! I've seen way worse Fridays.
Now for the actual challenge.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

ET	WATCH THIS	Maybe watch	It’s football
Noon	#6 Ohio State at Indiana, Fox	Pitt at #13 Penn State, ABC	Arkansas State at #3 Georgia, ESPN2
-	-	#21 Maryland at Temple, CBSSN	Chattanooga at Tennessee, SEC
-	-	Kansas State at Mississippi State, ESPN	Furman at Virginia Tech, ACC
-	-	NC State at West Virginia, FS1	Eastern Michigan at Illinois, BTN
-	-	-	Miami (Ohio) at Cincinnati, ESPNU
12:30	-	-	The Citadel at Georgia Tech, ACC
1	-	Air Force at Colorado, Pac-12	-
2	-	FAU at Ball State, ESPN+	Norfolk State at Coastal Carolina, ESPN+
2:30	-	-	New Mexico at #7 Notre Dame, NBC
3	-	Akron at Central Michigan, ESPN+	-
3:30	-	Stanford at #17 UCF, ESPN	#2 Alabama at South Carolina, CBS
-	-	#24 USC at BYU, ABC	Memphis at South Alabama, ESPNU
-	-	East Carolina at Navy, CBSSN	UNLV at Northwestern, BTN
-	-	Georgia Southern at Minnesota, BTN	-
-	-	Army at UTSA, NFL	-
-	-	Oklahoma State at Tulsa, ESPN2	-
4	#19 Iowa at Iowa State, FS1	Arizona State at #18 Michigan State, Fox	SE Louisiana at Ole Miss, SEC
-	-	-	Colorado State at Arkansas, SEC
-	-	-	Louisville at Western Kentucky, Stadium
-	-	-	Bethune-Cookman at Miami, ACC
4:15	-	North Texas at Cal, Pac-12	Idaho State at #11 Utah, Pac-12
-	-	-	Cal Poly at Oregon State, Pac-12
5	-	-	Louisiana Tech at Bowling Green, ESPN+
-	-	-	Idaho at Wyoming, ESPN+
6	-	Buffalo at Liberty (someone has got to monitor Hugh Freeze), ESPN+	SC State at USF, ESPN+
-	-	Southern Miss at Troy, ESPN+	UMass at Charlotte, ESPN+
6:30	-	Ohio at Marshall, Stadium	-
7	-	#9 Florida at Kentucky, ESPN	Kent State at #8 Auburn, ESPN2
-	-	Duke at Middle Tennessee, Stadium	Lamar at #16 Texas A&M, ESPNU
-	-	Weber State at Nevada, ESPN+	New Hampshire at FIU, ESPN+
-	-	-	Texas State at SMU, ESPN+
-	-	-	Georgia State at Western Michigan, ESPN+
-	-	-	Murray State at Toledo, ESPN+
7:30	Florida State at #25 Virginia, ACC	#1 Clemson at Syracuse, ABC	Northwestern State at #4 LSU, SEC
-	-	Hawaii at #23 Washington, Pac-12	SE Missouri State at Missouri, SEC
-	-	TCU at Purdue lmao, BTN	Texas Southern at UL-Lafayette, ESPN+
8	-	Northern Illinois at Nebraska, FS1	#5 Oklahoma at UCLA, Fox
-	-	-	#12 Texas at Rice, CBSSN
-	-	-	San Diego State at New Mexico State, Flo
-	-	-	Missouri State at Tulane, ESPN+
10:15	-	-	Portland State at #22 Boise State, ESPN2
10:30	Texas Tech at Arizona, ESPN	-	-
10:45	-	Montana at #15 Oregon, Pac-12	-

WHEW BOY. Ohio State-Indiana edges out the BIG NOON crowd because of the Hoosiers' eternal knack for putting a halftime scare into a title contender, then withering away, though the Pitt superweapon is sufficiently charged with losses and could obliterate a top-15 rival's planet at any time.
The middle group is obvious. EL ASSICO is somehow the hands-down biggest game of the week. What a disgusting miracle.
The prime time spot is the real puzzle. Casual fans who hadn't already looked ahead at the night schedule will be mystified to tune in and discover four-touchdown underdog Syracuse in the most prominent game, unless Cuse can once again luck into its most proven anti-Clemson maneuver: getting to face a backup quarterback.
Let's be honest about what most of us will turn to as soon as Clemson breaks 14 points: FSU probably struggling as Virginia continues to sneak toward the Orange Bowl. Gary Patterson vs. Jeff Brohm should also be a hoot for chalkboard nerds.
The late shift peters out without dragging anything until 5 a.m. ET this time. Texas Tech-Arizona will likely pack nothing but sugar, making for a nice, hard crash.
It'll be fun, I swear! And getting all this stuff outta the way just makes the following weekends a lot bigger! Let's hear it for Week 3!!!
(This is also going out on the Read Option newsletter each Thursday.)

Welcome back CFB!
This is the 3rd edition in an effort to simulate the entire 2019 college football season. If you’re unfamiliar with how this series works, you can read the introductory post HERE
Thank you to the 298 voters who participated this week.
Just a quick announcement, in the last post a lot of you seemed curious about the % of votes for each team and the RNG so in the spreadsheet linked below with the game results from this week I tried putting in as many percentages and the RNG’s for as many games as possible, not every game is included as it’s very time consuming but most are included, including all the notable games. I will try to do this for all notable games the rest of the season. And if you are curious about a game that wasn’t included, leave a comment and I’ll do my best to let you know what the results were!
Weekday Games
• Again, no Thursday games this week but we actually have a surprisingly good slate of Friday night games. In a “non-conference” matchup, Wake Forest Wake Forest takes down North Carolina North Carolina to improve to 3-0. Boston College Boston College escapes a feisty Kansas Kansas team with a TD run by AJ Dillon in the final minutes. And lastly, Washington State Washington State is firing on all cylinders as they demolish Houston Houston. But the highlight of this game is actually the post-game press conference as Mike Leach goes on a 5 minute long rant about why octopuses are actually aliens.
College GameDay: For the first time ever, GameDay heads to Ames for Iowa Iowa vs. Iowa State Iowa State and the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. Lee Corso puts on the Cy the Cardinal head. Former NFL QB and one of the best players in Iowa State history, Seneca Wallace joins the set as guest picker.
Notable Results:
• An in-state battle pits Penn State #14 Penn State against Pittsburgh Pittsburgh. A winless Pitt team comes out motivated and leads through halftime, but Penn State kicks it into gear and comes back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter to win. Pitt is now a surprising 0-3.
• In a Big 12/SEC matchup, Mississippi State Mississippi State gets another win against Kansas State Kansas State.
• Many people had West Virginia West Virginia pegged as one of the worst teams in the Big 12 going into the season. But the Mountaineers sit a respectable 2-1 after a win over NC State NC State.
• #9WINDIANA is derailed for at least one week as the Indiana Hoosiers get trounced by Ohio State #3 Ohio State.
• Navy Navy beats East Carolina East Carolina 50-49 as they successfully attempt a 2 point conversion after a TD in the final minute.
• Williams-Brice Stadium is rocking as South Carolina South Carolina hosts Alabama #2 Alabama. The Tide trail 7-3 after the 1st quarter due to a few self inflicted wounds. But it’s all Bama after that as the Gamecocks don’t score another point.
• Arizona State Arizona State makes a trip up to Big Ten country to face Michigan State #13 Michigan State. It’s a game that comes down to the wire but Sparty gets the win.
• California California narrowly escapes upset minded North Texas North Texas.
• Kentucky Kentucky’s winning streak against Florida Florida ends at 1. The #8 Gators ride a strong 2nd half performance from Lamical Perine to get a comfy win against UK.
• There’s no upset in the Carrier Dome this time, Clemson #2 Clemson beats Syracuse Syracuse by 24 points.
• In the most hyped up Battle For The Cy-Hawk game in quite a while, Iowa State #22 Iowa State snaps a 4 game losing streak to Iowa #23 Iowa. Brock Purdy enters Heisman discussion behind a 4 TD performance.
RNGesus Answers The Prayer!
• A rejuvenated Air Force Air Force squad goes into Boulder and upsets Colorado Colorado! 2016 seems like an eternity ago for Buffs fans.
• Stanford Stanford makes the long trip across the country to derail UCF #16 UCF’s hopes of another NY6 bowl. UCF loses their first home game since 2016.
• Jeff Brohm just keeps on surprising as Purdue Purdue beats TCU #18 TCU at home!
• Florida State Florida State seem to be a new and improved team this year as they advance to 3-0 after an upset over Virginia Virginia. That’s 2 upsets in 3 weeks for the Seminoles!
• Arizona Arizona sits a quiet 3-0 after a mild upset over Texas Tech Texas Tech.
Top 25 Poll
1. Clemson Clemson
2. Alabama Alabama
3. Georgia Georgia
4. Ohio State Ohio State
5. Oklahoma Oklahoma
6. Oregon Oregon
7. Florida Florida
8. Texas Texas
9. Notre Dame Notre Dame
10. LSU LSU
11. Washington Washington
12. Michigan State Michigan State
13. Penn State Penn State
14. Utah Utah
15. Nebraska Nebraska
16. Texas A&M Texas A&M
17. Iowa State Iowa State
18. Michigan Michigan
19. Auburn Auburn
20. Army Army
21. Purdue Purdue
22. Mississippi State Mississippi State
23. USF USF
24. Florida State Florida State
25. Washington State Washington State
Full Results and Standings
CLICK HERE for all the results from this past week and the upcoming schedule!
CLICK HERE for team by team results and schedules!
CLICK HERE for updated conference standings and team records!
Please upvote this for maximum visibility so we can get as many votes as possible. The more votes we can the more representative it is of CFB’s picks and hopefully the more realistic it is
And finally...
CLICK HERE TO MAKE YOUR WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

How’s it going everyone? Welcome back again
This is the ninth installment in an effort to simulate the entire 2019 college football season, if you don’t know how this series works you can find the introductory post here
Thanks to the 235 voters this week!
College GameDay: This weekend GameDay heads to Ann Arbor for one of footballs greatest rivalries, Notre Dame #8 Notre Dame vs. Michigan #13 Michigan. Lee Corso puts on the Michigan helmet and tries to do his best Desmond Howard Heisman impression but fails miserably.
Notable Results:
• In the lone game on Friday night, USC USC beats Colorado Colorado by 10 points. USC is back to .500.
• Oregon #11 Oregon keep themselves alive in the Pac-12 North race with a win over Washington State #18 Washington State. The North division looks to be a battle between Oregon and Stanford.
• Speaking of Stanford, the Stanford #10 Cardinal win in a blowout over Arizona Arizona.
• Memphis #19 Memphis improves to 8-0 with a dominant win over Tulsa Tulsa.
• Alabama #2 Alabama struggles early against Arkansas Arkansas but they get things going and win easily.
• In a battle of the Tigers, LSU #5 LSU beats Auburn Auburn behind a strong performance from Joe Burrow.
• Tennessee Tennessee snaps a 3 game losing streak to South Carolina South Carolina.
• In an important matchup in the Big 12, we have a shootout between Iowa State #21 Iowa State and Oklahoma State Oklahoma State. The Cyclones seal the win with a FG in the waning moments, 47-44.
• Texas #9 Texas is still firmly in the Big 12 race with a road victory over TCU TCU.
• In the most entertaining finish of the day, Maryland Maryland had 2 chances to get the win over Minnesota Minnesota but failed both times. The first time, Maryland QB Josh Jackson doesn’t see a WIDE open receiver in the end zone and ends up throwing the ball away. Then with 0:02 seconds left, they doink a chip shot FG off the goal post. Gophers win and are now bowl eligible.
• Ohio State #4 Ohio State gets a convincing win over Wisconsin Wisconsin.
• Finally! Rutgers Rutgers get their first win of the season against Liberty Liberty!
• It’s a bitter rivalry in football too, Duke Duke gets a narrow win over North Carolina North Carolina in a game that got chippy at times.
• Florida State Florida State get their season back on track with a hard fought win over Syracuse Syracuse. The Orange unfortunately just haven’t lived up to the hype this year, but they still have a good shot at a bowl game.
• Rice Rice is the only remaining winless team in college football as they lose this week Southern Miss Southern Miss. The Owls are 0-8.
RNGesus Answers The Prayer!
• SMU SMU is proving to be a contender in the AAC as they get the upset over Houston Houston. The AAC West is a cluttered mess as 4 teams have either 0 or 1 loss.
• Kentucky Kentucky get their first SEC win with an upset victory over Missouri Missouri.
• In another SEC upset, Mississippi State Mississippi State knocks off Texas A&M #13 Texas A&M in College Station with a strong defensive performance.
• Notre Dame #8 Notre Dame goes into Ann Arbor and beats Michigan #12 Michigan! The Wolverines have 2 losses but are still sitting pretty in the Big Ten as they’re undefeated in conference. Michigan will HAVE to win out if they want any chance to make the Playoffs.
• Chip Kelly’s UCLA UCLA Bruins get a narrow upset over Arizona State Arizona State.
• After back to back big wins, Iowa #23 Iowa stumbles and is upset by Northwestern Northwestern! The Cats snap a 4 game losing skid and get their first Big Ten win of the year. Their last 5 games of the season are all winnable, can they recover from a 1-5 start to make a bowl?
• After losing 2 in a row, Penn State #25 Penn State rolls into East Lansing and springs the upset over Michigan State #14 Michigan State.
Top 25 Poll
1. Clemson Clemson
2. Alabama Alabama
3. Oklahoma Oklahoma
4. Ohio State Ohio State
5. LSU LSU
6. Utah Utah
7. Notre Dame Notre Dame
8. Georgia Georgia
9. Texas Texas
10. Stanford Stanford
11. Oregon Oregon
12. Nebraska Nebraska
13. Florida Florida
14. Army Army
15. Michigan Michigan
16. Memphis Memphis
17. Michigan State Michigan State
18. Washington Washington
19. Texas A&M Texas A&M
20. Iowa State Iowa State
21. Penn State Penn State
22. NC State NC State
23. UCF UCF
24. Virginia Virginia
25. Mississippi State Mississippi State
Full Results and Standings
CLICK HERE for all of the results from this week!
CLICK HERE for team by team schedules and results!
CLICK HERE for updated conference standings and team records!
Please upvote this post for maximum visibility. The more votes we get, hopefully the more representative this is of CFB’s predictions and hopefully as realistic as possible.
And finally...
Click here to make your Week 10 picks!

So, you've successfully conquered the first round and have a perfect bracket going into Round 2. "What do I do?" you shout to the heavens. There is no reply because attempting to predict the future is heresy, and you are sentenced to watch that UConn-Butler Championship Game for all eternity.
I decided to combine this with looking at overall seed success in later rounds so you can get a sense of how many teams "on average" you should try and identify going to a certain part of the tournament. Now, if you really wanted to win your bracket, your best might be to go pretty much chalk until the Final 4, but you don't read through all this to make the safe play, do you?
Check out yesterday's post about the 1st Round for disclaimers and why Buffalo beating Arizona gave me street cred (but also why you should probably just pick based on which alumni have the fewest degrees of separation to J. Cole or something).
As always, these are pre-tourney stats taken from the wonderful barttorvik.com.
#1/#2 vs #7/#8/#9/#10
The Rule:
Be wary of #1 and #2 seeds with defenses outside of the Top 20. Watch out for 7-10 seeds that are power conference teams in the Top 20 Overall or in the Top 10 in either AdjO or AdjD.
The Breakdown:
#1 and #2 seeds with those defenses have more losses in 25 games (14-9) than all others 1/2 seeds in 48 games (40-8). Meanwhile, if you're looking to call a specific 7-10 seed to shock the world, check out the power conference teams above. They are 7-6. Weirdly, mid-majors fitting that same profile are 1-7 (Wichita State beat Kansas). Everyone else is 10-42.
Brief interlude: Some teams just have this weird thing that kept popping up.
​
WINS - POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS (TOP 20 ADJ OVERALL OR TOP 10 ADJO/ADJD)
-------
2017: Wisconsin over #1 Villanova
2014: Kentucky over #1 Wichita State
​
2018: Texas A&M over #2 UNC
2017: South Carolina over #2 Duke
2017: Michigan over #2 Louisville
2015: Michigan State over #2 Virginia
2011: FSU over #2 Notre Dame
​
LOSSES - POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS (TOP 20 ADJ OVERALL OR TOP 10 ADJO/ADJD)
----------
2014: #1 Florida over Pitt (by 16)
2011: #1 Kansas over Illinois (by 14)
2010: #1 Duke over Cal (by 15)
​
2015: #2 Arizona over Ohio State (by 15)
2011: #2 North Carolina over Washington (by 3)
2010: #2 West Virginia over Missouri (by 9)
​
ALL OTHER UPSETS
----------------------------
2018: FSU over #1 Xavier (7/49)
2015: NC State over #1 Villanova (4/10)
2013: Wichita State over #1 Gonzaga (3/21)
2011: Butler over #1 Pitt (4/23)
2010: Northern Iowa over Kansas (1/6)
*Sorry I lost the data for the 8/9 seed upsets*
​
2018: Nevada (39/14/120) over #2 Cincinnati (45/2)
2016: Wisconsin (41/54/38) over Xavier (17/25)
2014: Stanford (40/39/51) over Kansas (5/29)
2014: Connecticut (24/44/12) over Villanova (17/10)
2010: St. Mary's (43/13/91) over Villanova (5/59)
​
What I Said Last Year:
I didn't edit after the bracket came out, I would've said pick one of Xavier, Kansas, or Nova to go down in the 2nd Round. I chose X for that very reason. Also, I chose Butler (#18 Overall) over Purdue.
What Happened:
Uh, Xavier lost. Villanova and Kansas went to the Final 4 (I had Nova and had Kansas in the Elite 8). Butler came close to beating Purdue, but fell short. UNC fell into that BEWARE category and lost to A&M. Basically, an even split and the two worst defensive teams lost.
This Year:
Well, Tennessee is the only #1 or #2 seed with an AdjD ranking outside of the Top 20. Louisville is the only #7-#10 seed from a power conference in the Top 20 overall. I'm leaning towards taking the Bearcats and Cardinals.
#6/#11 over #3
The Rule:
Gravitate towards the #6 or #11 seeds that have stronger offenses and away from #3 seeds outside of the Top 20 overall.
The Breakdown:
This is one of the weirder trends I found and it might be (read: probably) absolutely meaningless, but 6/11 seeds who rank higher in AdjO than they rank in AdjD are 9-6. If their defense is better than their offense (i.e. 65 in AdjO and 23 in AdjD), they are 3-16.
I'll spare you the breakdown because this part of the dataset that I lost, but had the overall numbers saved elsewhere.
What I Said Last Year:
Again, no predictions, but I would've taken Michigan St. over Syracuse, Florida over Tortillas, and Tennessee over Sister Jean's Fighting Catholics.
What Happened:
Uh, that's 0-3 for me right there. Not one of my finest hours.
This Year:
No 3 seeds are outside the Top 20, but LSU is close at #19 Overall on Torvik.
As far as the 6/11 seeds...
Better on Offense than Defense (Winners): Iowa St., Buffalo, Villanova, St. Mary's, Belmont, Temple, Arizona St., St. John's
Better on Defense than Offense (Losers): Maryland, Ohio St.
#12/#13 over #4/#5
The Rule:
Don't do this.
The Breakdown:
You've found your sleeper pick and it's some plucky underdog whose mascot is a giant banana or something. They knock off that #4 or #5 seed and you're ready to put them through to the Sweet 16. Before you do, ask yourself one question: are you going with the double upset in that region?
Because, if not, that journey is probably coming to an end.
In the past ten years, there have been 15 games featuring a #12 or #13 seed going against a #4 or #5 seed. The record in those 15 games? 2-13.
Woof.
For the record, those two wins are Oregon beating a #4 St. Louis team that should've lost to NC State the round before (I'm still bitter about that) and Cornell beating a Wisconsin team that probably scored like 32 points or something.
This Year:
Too many different permutations to get a gauge, but you better hope for 1 or 2 unlikely upsets in a row.
​
HOW OFTEN DOES EACH SEED MAKE A ROUND? (LISTEN, TITLES AREN'T MY STRONG SUIT, OKAY)
I wanted to get a sense of how many seeds make a given round on average since winning your bracket often boils down to a) picking the right champ and b) getting the most Final 4/Elite 8 picks. This isn't going to be on the same level as the other parts of these posts, but I wanted to bolster the 2nd Round stuff with a little extra something.
ELITE 8
The Breakdown:
#1 - 25
#2 - 18
#3 - 11
#4 - 7
5 OR LOWER - 19
What This Tells Us:
You want to take between 2-3 one seeds depending on the relative strength of those #1 seeds. There's usually three #2 or #3 seeds and then a couple of Cinderella-type substances. Last year was particularly chaotic as you had two #8 seeds and a #11 seed make the Elite 8, but you still had the two 1-seeds and three #2 or #3 seeds.
FINAL 4
The Breakdown:
#1 - 14
#2 - 7
#3 - 4
#4 - 4
5 OR LOWER - 11
What This Tells Us:
It's really hard to nail the Final 4, but there's usually one team nobody expected to get there that makes the Final 4. In the past 8 years, here are some Final 4 participants (the extra two in that count are 2010 Butler and Michigan State - both #5 seeds).
2014 UConn (#7)
2015 Michigan St. (#7)
2017 South Carolina (#7)
2014 Kentucky (#8)
2011 Butler (#8)
2013 Wichita St. (#9)
2016 Syracuse (#10)
2011 VCU (#11)
2018 Loyola Chicago (#11)
This is a nice mixture of traditionally strong programs who put it together at the right time and upstart mid-majors. The Valley, Horizon, and old CAA certainly were considered *strong* mid-majors at the time. This wasn't an A-Sun or Summit team going all the way. All four of those conferences had a positive SRS that season according to CBB Reference. Conferences that fit the bill this year would be the West Coast (St. Mary's), Mountain West (Nevada/Utah St.), MAC (Buffalo), A-10 (VCU), and Pac-12 (I'm just joking!). You may notice three of those teams are in the same region.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The Breakdown:
#1 - 10
#2 - 3
#3 - 2
#4 - 1
5 OR LOWER - 4
What This Tells Us:
If you throw out the bizarre 2014 when UConn and Kentucky played for the title, that's 16 out of 18 teams in the title game starting out as "protected seeds". #1 seeds are #1 seeds for a reason. The other teams seeded fifth or lower to play for a title was the same team: Butler. So, feel free to take a Cinderella to the Final 4, but don't put them in your championship game.
Anyways, I'll be back tomorrow to take a look at the Top 4 seeds and their performance over the past ten years and what, if anything, we can pick up from the types of teams that usually get those seeds.