Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome! Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch. And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night. Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy. Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level. There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen. This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat. Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defensehere) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and… Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers. This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about. In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him. I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs. As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL. For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 Why We Will Lose All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play. And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl. Why We Will Win This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing. Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay. Prediction:Bills 31 – Chiefs 28 Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing. Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack. Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other. The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look. This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games. This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night. If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night. The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air. Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities. At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night. For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993. The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league. The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense. Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts. Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones. The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss. EDGE: Bills 👏 Why We Will Lose The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2. On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory. Why We Will Win The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL. On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years. Prediction:Bills 27 – Ravens 24 This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.
Reddit Adjusted Fantasy Football Trade Values Week 8: Hug your RBs tight
Welcome into another week of fantasy football. Not the best week for injuries with some studs going down. This is fine. I have always wanted to start (checks notes) JaMycal Hasty as my RB2 and Donovan Peoples-Jones in my flex. I’m not crying, you’re crying. I have had people ask me about the trades that I have personally conducted and to talk about my leagues. I actually had some recent movement in a couple leagues. I will actually be talking with the guys from Front Yard Fantasy on their stream today at 3 pm EST about the trade charts, my personal trades, and user trade questions. So feel free to stop by! Front Yard Fantasy Stream, 3 PM 10/28
*AB was ranked too low on everywhere besides CBS to be here. Significant Updates: Method: To generate trade values, I combine Harris football rankings with Fantasypro rankings and apply an algorithm I wrote based on historical values and trends. Next, I average these values with CBS and 4for4 values (if applicable) to normalize across the industry. Lastly, I apply a PPR correction factor and create the 0.5 PPR values as well. I generated my functions by using historical data, Reddit Trade threads, and the Yahoo trade market. My goal was to look for crossover points in 1 for 1 player positional trades to generate tiers and normalize across positions. My goal is to incorporate as many sources and experts as possible to eliminate or minimize bias. I have recently incorporated R scripts that use “fuzzy” matches to try and combine the player names. Each site uses slightly different variants and it causes issues. I am still working on it. As I discussed previously, I believe the experts have a lot of bias towards the top, bottom, and between the positions. I check the comments on the expert's articles every week and see the disapproval and outright anger at some of the rankings. My goal was to try and adjust the values using crowd-sourced data (Reddit+Yahoo) to create better trade values. Key Assumption: 12 team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 TE/WRB. FAQ: “Where are the standard or PPR values? “ Answer: Change the tab or the spreadsheet, or scroll down on the image. “What is the QB value in 2-QB leagues? “ Answer: Double the QB values and it will be close. I know it doesn’t capture the lower QB values, it is hard to find 2-QB data. So share sources if you find any! “What does 10-team league do to values?” Answer: Smaller league means higher-tiered players are worth more. Tiers 1-3 go up and tiers 6-7 have very little value. “What about 3 WR leagues?” Answer: WRs value increases due to a slight increase in scarcity “Where are the defenses? Answer: Defenses don’t matter to the experts. Hard to quantify “Why is X player so low?” Answer: Because you own them and god hates you “How do I use this chart?” Answer: Add player values on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. That simple. "Did you mean to spell X wrong?" Answer: No, spelling is hard. I do science and stuff “What about Dynasty, bro? Answer: I have some preliminary Dynasty Ranks with the aid of Pollsports.com. I will work more on it this year and in the offseason. “What about keeper and draft picks?” Answer: Great Question. I do not know. Keepers change the trade game. I do not factor them in. Draft picks are tough to quantify as well. I think you can estimate a pick value by averaging the values of the 12 players on the chart corresponding to the round. (Example average players 1-12 to get a first-round pick). Then, you would need to weight the value to include rest-of-season usage and uncertainty in the draft pick next year. So many 50% of the average is what I am guessing. All this is theory. u/TheRealMonty used these values to build a website to help with trades. He is doing a lot to improve and expand the website. Check it out! u/intersecting_lines is the user that made a chrome and firefox extension using these values. They are super helpful! u/J_smooth is running his great site at Pollsports.com that has been super useful for my dynasty ranks! You can also ping me to vote on your specific polls. u/sqaudfam is also using these values on his website, yufafootball.com, to create a power rankings tool If you are interested in extra ranks and/or updated/continuous ranks, including injury update; support me onPatreon(patreon.com/Peakedinhighskool). Proceeds go to crippling student loan debt Have another great week of football, -PeakedinHighSkool
Reddit Adjusted Fantasy Football Trade Values Week 11: We still doing this?
Welcome into another week of fantasy football. I know my leagues had depressed scoring last week with many teams not even breaking 100 points in 0.5 PPR. All my leagues are Yahoo leagues and our trade deadline has expired. I was able to send Swift+Dobbins+Woods for Julio (bye) as one last minute trade before the deadline. When is your Trade deadline and do you like it that late? What content would you like to see next season? TL:DR Images:
Significant Updates: Method: To generate trade values, I combine Harris football rankings with Fantasypro rankings and apply an algorithm I wrote based on historical values and trends. Next, I average these values with CBS and 4for4 values (if applicable) to normalize across the industry. Lastly, I apply a PPR correction factor and create the 0.5 PPR values as well. I generated my functions by using historical data, Reddit Trade threads, and the Yahoo trade market. My goal was to look for crossover points in 1 for 1 player positional trades to generate tiers and normalize across positions. My goal is to incorporate as many sources and experts as possible to eliminate or minimize bias. I have recently incorporated R scripts that use “fuzzy” matches to try and combine the player names. Each site uses slightly different variants and it causes issues. I am still working on it. As I discussed previously, I believe the experts have a lot of bias towards the top, bottom, and between the positions. I check the comments on the expert's articles every week and see the disapproval and outright anger at some of the rankings. My goal was to try and adjust the values using crowd-sourced data (Reddit+Yahoo) to create better trade values. Key Assumption: 12 team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 TE/WRB. FAQ: “Where are the standard or PPR values? “ Answer: Change the tab or the spreadsheet, or scroll down on the image. “What is the QB value in 2-QB leagues? “ Answer: Double the QB values and it will be close. I know it doesn’t capture the lower QB values, it is hard to find 2-QB data. So share sources if you find any! “What does 10-team league do to values?” Answer: Smaller league means higher-tiered players are worth more. Tiers 1-3 go up and tiers 6-7 have very little value. “What about 3 WR leagues?” Answer: WRs value increases due to a slight increase in scarcity “Where are the defenses? Answer: Defenses don’t matter to the experts. Hard to quantify “Why is X player so low?” Answer: Because you own them and god hates you “How do I use this chart?” Answer: Add player values on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. That simple. "Did you mean to spell X wrong?" Answer: No, spelling is hard. I do science and stuff “What about Dynasty, bro? Answer: I have some preliminary Dynasty Ranks with the aid of Pollsports.com. I will work more on it this year and in the offseason. “What about keeper and draft picks?” Answer: Great Question. I do not know. Keepers change the trade game. I do not factor them in. Draft picks are tough to quantify as well. I think you can estimate a pick value by averaging the values of the 12 players on the chart corresponding to the round. (Example average players 1-12 to get a first-round pick). Then, you would need to weight the value to include rest-of-season usage and uncertainty in the draft pick next year. So many 50% of the average is what I am guessing. All this is theory. u/TheRealMonty used these values to build a website to help with trades. He is doing a lot to improve and expand the website. Check it out! u/intersecting_lines is the user that made a chrome and firefox extension using these values. They are super helpful! u/J_smooth is running his great site at Pollsports.com that has been super useful for my dynasty ranks! You can also ping me to vote on your specific polls. u/sqaudfam is also using these values on his website, yufafootball.com, to create a power rankings tool If you are interested in extra ranks and/or updated/continuous ranks, including injury update; support me onPatreon(patreon.com/Peakedinhighskool). Proceeds go to crippling student loan debt If you feel like if I was a help this season and you would like to donate to push for more content next year you can do so here:
Reddit Adjusted Fantasy Football Trade Values Week 9: Time to Push
Welcome into another week of fantasy football. Seemed like a weird week in fantasy scoring. I lost my boy Kittle. I have yet to move from the denial step into acceptance. He could be back in two weeks, right?!? No IR spot, and have not dropped him yet… Who are you targeting in the final push? I will be talking with the guys from Front Yard Fantasy again this week on their stream today at 3 pm EST about the trade charts, my trades, and trade questions. It should be a good time! Front Yard Fantasy Stream, 3 PM EST 11/4
Significant Updates: Method: To generate trade values, I combine Harris football rankings with Fantasypro rankings and apply an algorithm I wrote based on historical values and trends. Next, I average these values with CBS and 4for4 values (if applicable) to normalize across the industry. Lastly, I apply a PPR correction factor and create the 0.5 PPR values as well. I generated my functions by using historical data, Reddit Trade threads, and the Yahoo trade market. My goal was to look for crossover points in 1 for 1 player positional trades to generate tiers and normalize across positions. My goal is to incorporate as many sources and experts as possible to eliminate or minimize bias. I have recently incorporated R scripts that use “fuzzy” matches to try and combine the player names. Each site uses slightly different variants and it causes issues. I am still working on it. As I discussed previously, I believe the experts have a lot of bias towards the top, bottom, and between the positions. I check the comments on the expert's articles every week and see the disapproval and outright anger at some of the rankings. My goal was to try and adjust the values using crowd-sourced data (Reddit+Yahoo) to create better trade values. Key Assumption: 12 team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 TE/WRB. FAQ: “Where are the standard or PPR values? “ Answer: Change the tab or the spreadsheet, or scroll down on the image. “What is the QB value in 2-QB leagues? “ Answer: Double the QB values and it will be close. I know it doesn’t capture the lower QB values, it is hard to find 2-QB data. So share sources if you find any! “What does 10-team league do to values?” Answer: Smaller league means higher-tiered players are worth more. Tiers 1-3 go up and tiers 6-7 have very little value. “What about 3 WR leagues?” Answer: WRs value increases due to a slight increase in scarcity “Where are the defenses? Answer: Defenses don’t matter to the experts. Hard to quantify “Why is X player so low?” Answer: Because you own them and god hates you “How do I use this chart?” Answer: Add player values on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. That simple. "Did you mean to spell X wrong?" Answer: No, spelling is hard. I do science and stuff “What about Dynasty, bro? Answer: I have some preliminary Dynasty Ranks with the aid of Pollsports.com. I will work more on it this year and in the offseason. “What about keeper and draft picks?” Answer: Great Question. I do not know. Keepers change the trade game. I do not factor them in. Draft picks are tough to quantify as well. I think you can estimate a pick value by averaging the values of the 12 players on the chart corresponding to the round. (Example average players 1-12 to get a first-round pick). Then, you would need to weight the value to include rest-of-season usage and uncertainty in the draft pick next year. So many 50% of the average is what I am guessing. All this is theory. u/TheRealMonty used these values to build a website to help with trades. He is doing a lot to improve and expand the website. Check it out! u/intersecting_lines is the user that made a chrome and firefox extension using these values. They are super helpful! u/J_smooth is running his great site at Pollsports.com that has been super useful for my dynasty ranks! You can also ping me to vote on your specific polls. u/sqaudfam is also using these values on his website, yufafootball.com, to create a power rankings tool If you are interested in extra ranks and/or updated/continuous ranks, including injury update; support me onPatreon(patreon.com/Peakedinhighskool). Proceeds go to crippling student loan debt Have another great week of football, -PeakedinHighSkool
Reddit Adjusted Fantasy Football Trade Values Week 10: Deadline Edition
Welcome into another week of fantasy football. We had some close games this week but not a lot of insane fantasy scores. My zero shares of Dalvin Cook don’t have me tilting at all. What did CMC owners do to anger the fantasy gods? I will keep posting these for the next several weeks, but make sure to look at your trade deadline. I believe Yahoo default is 11/15. Don’t miss it! Who are you targeting in the final push? TL:DR Images:
Significant Updates: Method: To generate trade values, I combine Harris football rankings with Fantasypro rankings and apply an algorithm I wrote based on historical values and trends. Next, I average these values with CBS and 4for4 values (if applicable) to normalize across the industry. Lastly, I apply a PPR correction factor and create the 0.5 PPR values as well. I generated my functions by using historical data, Reddit Trade threads, and the Yahoo trade market. My goal was to look for crossover points in 1 for 1 player positional trades to generate tiers and normalize across positions. My goal is to incorporate as many sources and experts as possible to eliminate or minimize bias. I have recently incorporated R scripts that use “fuzzy” matches to try and combine the player names. Each site uses slightly different variants and it causes issues. I am still working on it. As I discussed previously, I believe the experts have a lot of bias towards the top, bottom, and between the positions. I check the comments on the expert's articles every week and see the disapproval and outright anger at some of the rankings. My goal was to try and adjust the values using crowd-sourced data (Reddit+Yahoo) to create better trade values. Key Assumption: 12 team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 TE/WRB. FAQ: “Where are the standard or PPR values? “ Answer: Change the tab or the spreadsheet, or scroll down on the image. “What is the QB value in 2-QB leagues? “ Answer: Double the QB values and it will be close. I know it doesn’t capture the lower QB values, it is hard to find 2-QB data. So share sources if you find any! “What does 10-team league do to values?” Answer: Smaller league means higher-tiered players are worth more. Tiers 1-3 go up and tiers 6-7 have very little value. “What about 3 WR leagues?” Answer: WRs value increases due to a slight increase in scarcity “Where are the defenses? Answer: Defenses don’t matter to the experts. Hard to quantify “Why is X player so low?” Answer: Because you own them and god hates you “How do I use this chart?” Answer: Add player values on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. That simple. "Did you mean to spell X wrong?" Answer: No, spelling is hard. I do science and stuff “What about Dynasty, bro? Answer: I have some preliminary Dynasty Ranks with the aid of Pollsports.com. I will work more on it this year and in the offseason. “What about keeper and draft picks?” Answer: Great Question. I do not know. Keepers change the trade game. I do not factor them in. Draft picks are tough to quantify as well. I think you can estimate a pick value by averaging the values of the 12 players on the chart corresponding to the round. (Example average players 1-12 to get a first-round pick). Then, you would need to weight the value to include rest-of-season usage and uncertainty in the draft pick next year. So many 50% of the average is what I am guessing. All this is theory. u/TheRealMonty used these values to build a website to help with trades. He is doing a lot to improve and expand the website. Check it out! u/intersecting_lines is the user that made a chrome and firefox extension using these values. They are super helpful! u/J_smooth is running his great site at Pollsports.com that has been super useful for my dynasty ranks! You can also ping me to vote on your specific polls. u/sqaudfam is also using these values on his website, yufafootball.com, to create a power rankings tool If you are interested in extra ranks and/or updated/continuous ranks, including injury update; support me onPatreon(patreon.com/Peakedinhighskool). Proceeds go to crippling student loan debt Have another great week of football, -PeakedinHighSkool
Reddit Adjusted Fantasy Football Trade Values Week 7: Drake is Alive Edition
Welcome into another week of fantasy football. I think we made it out of the weekend with minor injuries and minimal covid issues. Let’s all knock on wood! I have had people ask me about the trades that I have personally conducted and to talk about my leagues. Have had a couple trades go down in my three leagues so far. Someone just traded Waller for Lockett. I hit on some RBs and am looking to consolidate, so I am poking the Hopkins tier WR owners to see if I can 2 for 1 up. I am also poking the CMC owner since he lost his 3 starting RBs to injuries. I will update if anything gets done today! I am always on mobile and don’t see directs. Just an FYI TL:DR Images:
Significant Updates: Method: To generate trade values, I combine Harris football rankings with Fantasypro rankings and apply an algorithm I wrote based on historical values and trends. Next, I average these values with CBS and 4for4 values (if applicable) to normalize across the industry. Lastly, I apply a PPR correction factor and create the 0.5 PPR values as well. I generated my functions by using historical data, Reddit Trade threads, and the Yahoo trade market. My goal was to look for crossover points in 1 for 1 player positional trades to generate tiers and normalize across positions. My goal is to incorporate as many sources and experts as possible to eliminate or minimize bias. I have recently incorporated R scripts that use “fuzzy” matches to try and combine the player names. Each site uses slightly different variants and it causes issues. I am still working on it. As I discussed previously, I believe the experts have a lot of bias towards the top, bottom, and between the positions. I check the comments on the expert's articles every week and see the disapproval and outright anger at some of the rankings. My goal was to try and adjust the values using crowd-sourced data (Reddit+Yahoo) to create better trade values. Key Assumption: 12 team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 TE/WRB. FAQ: “Where are the standard or PPR values? “ Answer: Change the tab or the spreadsheet, or scroll down on the image. “What is the QB value in 2-QB leagues? “ Answer: Double the QB values and it will be close. I know it doesn’t capture the lower QB values, it is hard to find 2-QB data. So share sources if you find any! “What does 10-team league do to values?” Answer: Smaller league means higher-tiered players are worth more. Tiers 1-3 go up and tiers 6-7 have very little value. “What about 3 WR leagues?” Answer: WRs value increases due to a slight increase in scarcity “Where are the defenses? Answer: Defenses don’t matter to the experts. Hard to quantify “Why is X player so low?” Answer: Because you own them and god hates you “How do I use this chart?” Answer: Add player values on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. That simple. "Did you mean to spell X wrong?" Answer: No, spelling is hard. I do science and stuff “What about Dynasty, bro? Answer: I have some preliminary Dynasty Ranks with the aid of Pollsports.com. I will work more on it this year and in the offseason. “What about keeper and draft picks?” Answer: Great Question. I do not know. Keepers change the trade game. I do not factor them in. Draft picks are tough to quantify as well. I think you can estimate a pick value by averaging the values of the 12 players on the chart corresponding to the round. (Example average players 1-12 to get a first-round pick). Then, you would need to weight the value to include rest-of-season usage and uncertainty in the draft pick next year. So many 50% of the average is what I am guessing. All this is theory. u/TheRealMonty used these values to build a website to help with trades. He is doing a lot to improve and expand the website. Check it out! u/intersecting_lines is the user that made a chrome and firefox extension using these values. They are super helpful! u/J_smooth is running his great site at Pollsports.com that has been super useful for my dynasty ranks! You can also ping me to vote on your specific polls. u/sqaudfam is also using these values on his website, yufafootball.com, to create a power rankings tool If you are interested in extra ranks and/or updated/continuous ranks, including injury update; support me onPatreon(patreon.com/Peakedinhighskool). Proceeds go to crippling student loan debt Have another great week of football, -PeakedinHighSkool
Reddit Adjusted Fantasy Football Trade Values Week 12: Final Countdown
Welcome into another week of fantasy football. We had another pretty low scoring week in my leagues this week. My Mixon, Kittle, and OBJ team is not looking hot with the IR news last week. It’s cool, I hate money anyways. And plus it’s a better comeback story this way… TL:DR Images:
Significant Updates: Method: To generate trade values, I combine Harris football rankings with Fantasypro rankings and apply an algorithm I wrote based on historical values and trends. Next, I average these values with CBS and 4for4 values (if applicable) to normalize across the industry. Lastly, I apply a PPR correction factor and create the 0.5 PPR values as well. I generated my functions by using historical data, Reddit Trade threads, and the Yahoo trade market. My goal was to look for crossover points in 1 for 1 player positional trades to generate tiers and normalize across positions. My goal is to incorporate as many sources and experts as possible to eliminate or minimize bias. I have recently incorporated R scripts that use “fuzzy” matches to try and combine the player names. Each site uses slightly different variants and it causes issues. I am still working on it. As I discussed previously, I believe the experts have a lot of bias towards the top, bottom, and between the positions. I check the comments on the expert's articles every week and see the disapproval and outright anger at some of the rankings. My goal was to try and adjust the values using crowd-sourced data (Reddit+Yahoo) to create better trade values. Key Assumption: 12 team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 TE/WRB. FAQ: “Where are the standard or PPR values? “ Answer: Change the tab or the spreadsheet, or scroll down on the image. “What is the QB value in 2-QB leagues? “ Answer: Double the QB values and it will be close. I know it doesn’t capture the lower QB values, it is hard to find 2-QB data. So share sources if you find any! “What does 10-team league do to values?” Answer: Smaller league means higher-tiered players are worth more. Tiers 1-3 go up and tiers 6-7 have very little value. “What about 3 WR leagues?” Answer: WRs value increases due to a slight increase in scarcity “Where are the defenses? Answer: Defenses don’t matter to the experts. Hard to quantify “Why is X player so low?” Answer: Because you own them and god hates you “How do I use this chart?” Answer: Add player values on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. That simple. "Did you mean to spell X wrong?" Answer: No, spelling is hard. I do science and stuff “What about Dynasty, bro? Answer: I have some preliminary Dynasty Ranks with the aid of Pollsports.com. I will work more on it this year and in the offseason. “What about keeper and draft picks?” Answer: Great Question. I do not know. Keepers change the trade game. I do not factor them in. Draft picks are tough to quantify as well. I think you can estimate a pick value by averaging the values of the 12 players on the chart corresponding to the round. (Example average players 1-12 to get a first-round pick). Then, you would need to weight the value to include rest-of-season usage and uncertainty in the draft pick next year. So many 50% of the average is what I am guessing. All this is theory. u/TheRealMonty used these values to build a website to help with trades. He is doing a lot to improve and expand the website. Check it out! u/intersecting_lines is the user that made a chrome and firefox extension using these values. They are super helpful! u/J_smooth is running his great site at Pollsports.com that has been super useful for my dynasty ranks! You can also ping me to vote on your specific polls. u/sqaudfam is also using these values on his website, yufafootball.com, to create a power rankings tool If you are interested in extra ranks and/or updated/continuous ranks, including injury update; support me onPatreon(patreon.com/Peakedinhighskool). Proceeds go to crippling student loan debt If you feel like if I was a help this season and you would like to donate to push for more content next year you can do so here: Paypal (paypal.me/peakedinhighskool) Venmo u/peakedinhighskool Have another great week of football, -PeakedinHighSkool
Game Matchups Preview Playoff Round #1: Bills vs. Colts
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 17th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Colts. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, this is the longest post I have written by a large amount. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing. Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Colts’ Passing Defense Trivia, which QBs finished 2020 Top 5 in all the following categories; Completion %, Pass Yards, Pass TDs, Pass 1st Downs, Pass Y/A, Passer Rating, and QBR? Josh Allen, that’s it, that’s the entire list. Allen’s remarkable season is one that quieted a lot of skeptics in 2020, most of whom were rightly skeptical, and will likely earn him one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history. The massive improvements by the Bills’ QB were amplified by a dominate group of receivers with unique skill sets. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best all around WR in the NFL right now, Cole Beasley is the best Slot WR in the NFL, John Brown is an oft-overlooked weapon about to be unleashed, Gabe Davis is one of the more promising young offensive weapons in the NFL, and Isaiah McKenzie is a human Swiss Army Knife that consistently expands the box. The Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the passing attack is the primary reason why. Against the Colts the Bills’ Pass Offense will need to find a way to deal with an offshoot of the popular Cover 2 scheme. At a high-level Cover 2 is a zone scheme with two deep safeties. In the first few games of the season the Bills rarely saw two deep safety sets with teams testing Josh Allen’s ability to hit the deep ball, but after torching opposing offenses over that span future opposition took note and shifted multiple players deep in order to avoid a barrage of big throws by the Bills. The Colts’ Defensive Coordinator, Matt Eberflus, is an expert of this concept and also a sub concept known as Tampa 2. YouTuber Zach Hicks has a good breakdown of this concept if you want to see it in video format, but at a high level Tampa 2 is the same as a Cover 2 except that on a pass play one of the LBs is generally responsible for the deep middle of the field meaning 3 players are generally protecting against the deep ball. What makes the Colts so proficient at this type of defense is a well-rounded 2nd level that starts with a superstar at LB. Have you heard of Darius Leonard? If not, you are about to. This “Maniac” was named first team All-Pro his rookie season after being drafted 36th overall by the Colts in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into this analysis I had Leonard marked as an incredible run defender with quite possibly the best instincts in the NFL but after watching some film on this guy I realized he is also one of the best zone defending LBs there is. In 2019 Leonard had 5 Interceptions, 4 of which came as the middle zone defender and 1 while man covering an RB. Against the Bills Leonard will be especially dangerous due to his exceptional abilities as a QB spy that when coupled with his instincts and zone coverage capabilities makes him as close to a perfect Josh Allen counter as you will find. This will be the determining factor in whether or not the Colts will be able to slow down the Bills’ vaunted passing attack, slow that down and the Colts will win this running away. Behind Leonard is a solid stable of DBs, all of whom will provide unique challenges for the Bills. The primary outside corner is former Minnesota Vikings 1st rounder Xavier Rhodes who has built an 8-year career off being an exceptionally physical corner. Rhodes excels most with his hands on a receiver so even in the Colts’ Cover 2 expect him to press the WR lined up in front of him. The other outside position is predominantly controlled by 2nd year CB Rock Ya-Sin but because of an injury he will miss Saturday’s game and be replaced by 30-year old T.J. Carrie. While less talented than Rhodes, Carrie plays a similar style and within the Colts’ defense is playing the best football of his 7-year career. But the most dangerous CB on the Colts’ roster is their slot CB, one of the best in the NFL, Kenny Moore. Moore has exceptional instincts and out of the slot can read his primary responsibility while simultaneously providing help to his outside CBs. The last portion of this secondary are the safeties, Julian Blackmon and Khari Willis, both of whom can force game changing plays in the event any opposing QB tries to test them over the top. With the key to the Bills’ offense being their ability to move the ball through the air this matchup could ultimately determine the first round of the playoffs. Diggs, Brown, and Davis will all be pressed by outside CBs who they will need to beat if the Bills even want to consider taking a deep shot. In the slot it remains to be seen if Cole Beasley will be good to go, though it is looking promising, but regardless if the slot is him, Stills, McKenzie, or even Roberts all may struggle against Kenny Moore. Brian Daboll will need to come prepared with his best playbook to beat this defense while all the weapons will need to execute if the Bills intend to host another playoff game. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Colts’ Rushing Defense 89 times this season a player has rushed for 100+ yards in a game. Out of the 32 NFL teams only 4 of them did not have such a player, the Panthers, Chargers, Seahawks…and Bills. A stunning turn of events for a Bills’ team that has not finished outside the Top 10 in rushing yards since 2014 has seen them fall to 20th this season averaging just 107.7 Y/G. And don’t blame the shift to a pass first offense as the primary reason for this as the Bills’ rank 19th in Y/A at just 4.2 with their top two RBs, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, at just 4.4 and 4.3 respectively. I’ve wrote about this in past “Matchup Preview” posts, that the issue is best described by the fact that out of the 51 NFL players with 100+ rushing attempts Devin Singletary ranks 49th (1.5) and Zack Moss ranks 43rd (1.8) in Yards Before Contact (YBC). This points to two root causes; RBs not hitting the hole fast enough or poor OL blocking, and while I believe both are part of the problem to me it is the latter that is the predominant issue. The Colts run a 4-3 scheme meaning in their base package there are 4 DL and 3 LB but with the current state of the NFL most teams “Base” is actually their Nickel Package (1 LB is replaced by a DB). This is important to note in the context of the Bills running the ball because with the Colts predominately in Nickel the Bills may have success running the ball outside the tackles. To help visualize what it will look like picture the package where Tremaine Edmunds is flanked by one of A.J. Klein or Matt Milano. Ultimately this presents a situation where a defense becomes fully reliant on their DEs maintaining contain so that their LBs can scrape down the line and make a play on the ball carrier. In the worst case, where contain is blown and LBs can’t get to the ball carrier, a defenses reliance shifts to their CBs coming off a WR block or a safety coming down field and making a tackle in the open field. The Colts have the players in the secondary to accomplish this which is one reason why they are one of the best run defenses in the NFL. While this section lends itself to be just another breakdown of Darius Leonard, he was covered in detail in the passing section of this post so instead the the emphasis here is on the Colts’ DL. This is a DL which is headlined by ex-49er, the 2016 #7 overall pick DeForest Buckner. While Buckner primarily excels as a Pass Rusher (9.5 Sacks this Season) he is also a great run defender capable of using his large frame (6’7”, 240lb) and a great stable of moves to wreak havoc against the run. Next to him at Nose Tackle is Grover Stewart the 4th year man out of Albany State. Stewart plays and looks more massive than his 315lb listing and is meant to be a plug in the middle that takes up 2 interior linemen. On the outside is a 4-man rotation (In order of Snap %) of Denico Autry, Justin Houston, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and Tyquan Lewis. Autry and Houston are vets that primarily rush the passer while Muhammad and Lewis excel more against the run. Yet, the more you look at this DL and their rotations the more you come to realize it is eerily similar to the Bills, albeit a more successful version against the run. Running the ball against the Colts will be a tough task for this Bills’ team as the Colts rank 2nd in the NFL in Rush Y/A Against (3.7) while playing the likes of Dalvin Cook, the Ravens, Derrick Henry (x2), and Josh Jacobs. Most the of praise is owed to Leonard, and MLB Anthony Walker, but the whole of the defense is a highly disciplined unit that consistently does their 1/11th in order to dominate the defensive side of the ball. The one area where the Bills may be able to expose the Colts is via a run that is technically a pass, the McKenzie “Push Pass”. I expect this play to be run multiple times on Saturday and if I were to set an OveUnder on it I’d give out 2.5. Running this to the opposite side of Buckner should find success and if it does should slow down the outside pass rush of the Colts. EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Colts’ Passing Offense Coming into this analysis I hypothesized that a reason for the Bills’ struggles against the pass was that teams were throwing against the Bills far more in 2020 than they had in previous seasons. After all, the Bills’ offense was so prolific this season that more often than in a long-time, teams were playing from behind against the Bills. Turns out the 573 Passing Attempts against the Bills this season was only 20 more than the 553 from 2019 and remarkably the same number of pass attempts against as 2017. Digging deeper I found that even though the Bills had given up the same number of 300 yard passing games in 2020 (5) that they had from 2017 to 2019 their Passer Rating against was not drastically different. In fact their passer ratings against over the past 4 seasons were; 78.9 (2017), 82.6 (2018), 78.8 (2019), and 86.9 (2020) while the league wide Passer Rating over the same span followed a similar trend being 86.9 (2017), 92.9 (2018), 90.4 (2019), and 93.6 (2020). Turns out the Bills’ pass defense didn’t really regress all too much and in fact is still one of the most dominant units in the NFL, peaking at the perfect time. And in the first round of the playoffs the Bills will play a team which I describe as a Run First team that really likes to throw the ball. What does that mean exactly? The Colts did run the ball (459) less than they passed (552) so doesn’t that make them a pass first team? Technically yes, but with only 371 of those passes being completed and 114 of those going to RBs the Colts either ran or had an RB touch the ball on an astounding 69% of “completed” offensive plays. For context the leading rusher in the NFL was Derrick Henry of the Titans where they ran or had an RB touch the ball on just 66.8% of those plays. Moral of this all is exactly what was stated, Run First but love to pass, but make no mistake about it, when the Colts need to air the ball out, they do have some weapons to do so. The Colts have 3 good WRs and 3 solid TEs giving them high level depth in the passing game. By now every NFL fan knows T.Y. Hilton who has been one of the best deep threats in the NFL for just under a decade and though 31 still put up over 750 yards with a 13.6 Y/R in 2020. Opposite him is Zach Pascal who is in the 3rd year of his career and while unlike T.Y. in stature, coming in at 6’2” 215lb, is like him in that he is primarily a deep threat at this point in his career. The last WR of note is by far the most intriguing, 2nd round rookie Michael Pittman Jr. A player that was at times mocked to the Bills, Pittman is a massive receiver at 6’4” 225lb and has 4.5s 40yd speed. At moments he has looked unguardable for the Colts in 2020 but has a long way to go to reach his full potential, though he seems fully capable of it. At TE the Colts’ 3-man rotation is Jack Doyle, Mo Allie-Cox, and Trey Burton. Each of them is 6’2” 230lb or bigger and have at least 20 receptions with the 3 of them accounting for a total of 82 catches. These guys aren’t’ just redzone threats either, though they do account for 8 TDs, they are also big-time weapons in the middle of the field moving the sticks a combined 46 times. Throwing all those guys the ball will be the walking HOF-litmus test, Phillip Rivers. At 39 years old he has without a doubt lost a bit of zip on his throws but still was able to put up over 4000 passing yards and complete 68% of his passes. One very interesting stat of note is that Rivers, and the Colts, has only played 3 outdoor games north of Tennessee this season. In those games Rivers completed 60.4% of his passes, had a 2:3 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 81.2. In all other games Rivers completed 69.6% of his passes, had a 22:8 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 100.4. Needless to say the weather in Buffalo will have a major impact on the outcome of the game Saturday but if you don’t think Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and the rest of the Bills’ secondary will also have an impact, well…just wait. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Colts’ Rushing Offense The Buffalo Bills’ ability to stop the run will ultimately be the reason they have a successful or unsuccessful playoff run. If you believe in Dualism the Buffalo Bills’ run defense should improve your ability to debate it. The Bills have had 8 (5-3) games where the opponent rushed for 100+ yards, for an average of 167.6, and 8 (8-0) games where the opponent has rushed for under 100 yards, for an average of 71.6 Y/G. The crazy thing about this is that there is no tangible pattern, not competition, not location of game, not injuries, the Bills are simply just really good or really bad against the run. This week they can’t afford to be bad against it. To fully understand just how integral RBs are to the Colts’ offense see the analysis of their Pass Offense above. This Colts’ team by all measures had 4 solid RBs rostered going into the start of the 2020 season with Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins but when Mack popped his ACL in Week 1 the Colts were forced to scramble. Over the next few weeks, they would rely most on rookie Jonathan Taylor to carry the load on the ground but saw mixed results. By Week 8 Wilkins was out carrying Taylor and by Week 10 both Wilkins and Hines were. And then something happened, and this something happened to the Colts’ play calls and to Taylor who quickly shifted into the monster from Wisconsin. Over his final 6 games Taylor rushed 119 times (19.8 G) for 741 (123.5 Y/G) which is a Y/A of 6.2. At the end of the day Taylor is who a lot of draft experts thought he would be, a dominant all around back that can single handedly change games. Don’t get it twisted though Bills Mafia, Nyheim Hines will also play an integral role for the Colts’ offense on Saturday. But the talent at RB is one thing, the talent on the OL is a whole different monster. Working from right to left this week at RT is Braden Smith a 2nd round pick that has been a 3-year starter for the Colts. Smith is a freak of a human at 6’6” 315lb giving him the ability to toss opposing defenders around at will though the one knock on him is his slow dissection of incoming blitzes. At RG is Mark Glowinski a 6-year vet who like Braden Smith has power to spare but lacks elite quickness, yet he still exceeds the description of proficient RG. Then there are the big boys. At Center is Ryan Kelly who just earned his 2nd consecutive Pro Bowl nod as one of the best Centers in the NFL. An incredible blocking center and a master of dissecting opposing defenses Ryan Kelly is not only himself great, but he also makes the QB under him and the OL to the left and right of him better every single play. LG Quenton Nelson. 3 years into his career, 3 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros (and possibly a 3rd on the way), is it absurd to call a player a HOF 3 years into his career? Not for Nelson. This kid is a monstrosity that will control not only who is in front of him, but he will throw that man back into an LB like they are a rag doll. So, the Colts have 4 good to incredible OL, until we get to their LT. Starting LT Anthony Castonzo hit IR after an ankle injury in practice on Christmas Eve and was replaced by retired Jared Veldheer against the Jaguars. This is the only question mark for the Colts’ OL but if Veldheer can even play at 75% of his pre-retirement level he should provide suitable protection on the left side of the line. The old adage is control the trenches and you control the game. While I 100% agree with that statement I don’t think that is the key to this matchup. Whatever the Bills’ DL looks like this week will obviously need to do their job up front and make a play or two, and I’m especially excited to see what Ed Oliver and A.J. Epenesa will do this week. For me though, the LBs and Jordan Poyer are the entire key to this matchup. I fully expect Poyer in the box more often this game than we have seen all season allowing the Bills to put their Best Big Nickel (Foot) forward. Stop the run in whatever way you can and force Rivers to beat you through the air means the Bills will be stunting at whatever gap they can to force the young Taylor to try to bounce to an opening. For me this game will not determine my feelings on Tremaine Edmunds but will go a long way in deciding his future. Edmunds must make multiple big plays this week, and if he does, I’d fully expect McDermott to hand him the game ball regardless of how the offense plays. EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Colts’ Special Teams It is officially no longer hyperbole to say that the Buffalo Bills have the best Special Teams group in the NFL. The Bills’ primary return man, Andre Roberts (Pro Bowl, #1-NFL Kick Y/R, #7-NFL Punt Y/R) got a rest on Sunday resulting in backup return man, Isaiah McKenzie, bringing a punt 84 yards to the house for the Bills. That was the Bills first Punt Return TD since Marcus Thigpen did so on December 14, 2014. At Punter is the Bills’ second most improved player of 2020, Corey Bojorquez. Of punters who played all 16 games Bojo finished with the least punts (41) but lead the league in Punt Average (50.8), had the longest punt in the NFL (72), and finished 5th in Net Punt Average (44.0). Outside of one bad punt against the Cardinals, Bojo had just about as good as season as a punter can have. Last is the single season record holder for Points by a Buffalo Bills’ player, rookie Kicker Tyler Bass. Bass drilled 57 of 59 PATs (Possibly 58) and 28 of 34 FGs finishing the season with 141 points. It is also worth noting that the Bills finished 7th in the NFL in Opponent Average Drive Start (Own 26.6) primarily because of Bass’ ability to control the location of his high arced kicks resulting in the NFL’s second-best Kick Y/R Against (17.9). Bass is just another weapon on a team filled with them. The Colts also have one of the better special teams’ groups in the NFL. The Colts go about returns differently than the Bills using one player primarily for Kicks and another primarily for Punts. Handling Kick Returns is 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers who is averaging 28.8 Y/R which includes a 101-yard return for a TD in Week 5. Small in stature at 5’10, 170lb Rodgers has barn burning speed (4.28 40yd) and has the ability to return kicks for big yardage which may alter the Bills’ “Short-Kick” strategy on Saturday. Handling Punts is dynamic RB Nyheim Hines who has a Y/R of 10.0 and a long of just 26 implying consistent positive gains on Punt Returns. Punting for the Colts is Rigoberto Sanchez, who also handles kickoffs, ranks 14th in Punt Average (46.2) and 19th in Punt Net Average (40.0) giving up just 7.5 Y/R. At kicker for the Colts is another rookie, Rodrigo Blankenship. Blankenship is having a similar season to Bass missing just 5 FGs and 2 XPs but looks to be a kicker that will spend a long time in the NFL. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 Why We Will Lose The Colts matchup surprisingly well against the Buffalo Bills, probably more so than they would have against any other team in the AFC playoffs, outside of maybe the Browns. On defense the Colts should without a doubt stop the Bills’ RBs from moving the ball on the ground which means the Bills’ ability to score points will come down to how often Josh Allen and the Bills’ receivers can beat the Colts’ secondary. More importantly for the Colts is how many turnovers their defense, which ranks 5th in Takeaways, can force. With the way that Josh Allen and the Bills are playing right now it seems the only way to beat them is to take the ball away from them and keep it away, the Colts can do that. On offense the matchup is even better for the Colts. The Bills struggle against the run and while they have at times shown the ability to successfully defend against it their inconsistency will be a problem against one of the hottest RBs in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor. Colts’ fans know that they will be getting some yardage on the ground and while how much, and how many TDs, remains to be seen the consistent movement of the ball in this fashion is paramount. If successful, the Colts will take time off the clock and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. In the event the Colts must throw the ball they will likely be testing the Bills’ LBs with throws to their TEs and RBs allowing them to avoid the Bills’ highly talented secondary. All of this spells points for Indy, less time for the Bills’ offense, and the possibility of stealing this game in Buffalo. Why We Will Win Talk about broken records? “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team” Saturday. How many times did we get to say that in 2020? On offense it really hasn’t mattered the talent level of the defense in front of the Bills; Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, Lee Smith, Reggie Gilliam…Ok I’ll stop but they have all shredded opposition through the air. And let’s not forget the RBs, sure the Bills have struggled on the ground this season but have flashed big play potential with both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them has another Saturday. This offense will put up points regardless of who is on the other side of the ball and have proven that time in time again this season. On defense here is the deal, the Bills should completely stymie Phillip Rivers in the cold air of Buffalo. When I say “stymie”, I mean that when he must throw the Bills should be all over the ball and if he tries to fit one in a tight window take it away. I’ll put money on it that the Bills have at least one interception Saturday and might even drop the same bet on two because the Colts will HAVE to throw the ball. When they can avoid throwing, they will run and run again which is something Bills’ fans should be fearful of. But remember those 6 games where Jonathan Taylor had success which we discussed in the Colts’ Rushing Offense section of this post? The 6 defenses he played over that span ranked 18th (GNB), 30th (HOU), 28th (LVR), 30th (HOU), 5th (PIT), and 24th (JAX) by Run Defense DVOA. The Buffalo Bills rank better than all but one of those teams coming in at 17. This is the Bills’ game to win. Prediction:Bills 31 – Colts 20 When the Bills made the playoffs last season, I predicted they would win the game, and they should have. But that team was different than this one. This team isn’t coming to the playoffs to win just one game, this team is angry, this team is afraid of no one, and they are the hottest team in the NFL. This year there’s no “Foot off the pedal”, there’s no “Worrying about Common Sense”, there’s no Overtime. There’s just a Buffalo Bills’ team that wants much more than a “Fine and Dandy” hat and shirt. Your Buffalo Bills are coming for everyone and everything and it all starts on Saturday with 6700 fans greeting them in a stadium that will sound like it has 100,000 in it. Paraphrasing the great Steve Tasker, buckle up Colts, “It might be Chilly”. EDIT 1: Corrected Titans to Colts in Bills Rushing Offense section (Thank you some_random_noob)
I have compiled a 2 round mock draft in which I do trades in the first round. I am not an expert at trades and just have done trades based off prior trade data. **1st Round** Note: In this mock draft, I have projected Matt Ryan to be traded to the Colts for 4.118 and a 2023 Third **1. JAC - Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Clemson** Do I need to say more? The unanimous top prospect in the draft goes to Urban Meyer and the Jags. They get their guy at QB and spend their cap and draft picks surrounding him with elite pieces to get the most out of him while he is on his rookie contract. **2. NYJ – Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon** This is a tough one between a QB and Sewell but I went with my gut. Saleh is inheriting the 3rd overall pick in the 2018 draft with lots of picks in this draft. **3. SF - Zach Wilson (QB) - BYU** *MIA trades 1.03, 2.50, 2022 first, and Tua Tagovailoa to HOU for Deshaun Watson and 2022 fifth round pick.* *Houston trades 1.03 to San Francisco for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 first, 2023 Fifth* Deshaun Watson is dis by gruntled and both teams improve. While Miami gives up two first round picks and Tua, they get a top 5 quarterback and Houston gets an abundance of draft capital and the 5th overall selection in the 2020 draft, Tua Tagovailoa. Ultimately, Houston’s best option if they get the 3rd overall selection is to trade the pick. If Sewell is off the board and they indeed receive Tua in return, they can turn this selection into more draft capital. **4. ATL – Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State** Atlanta has plenty of holes and an aging QB. They select their QB of the future who returns home. Fields has immense natural physical talent to make new offensive-minded head coach Arthur Smith think about finding Matt Ryan's successor for a run-heavier approach to the offense. **5. CIN - Jamarr Chase (WR) - LSU** The Bengals are in desperate need of offensive linemen to protect Joe Burrow, however, with the top quarterbacks off the board there is no real demand from teams drafting up. No need to be depressed Bengals fans, you get an elite wr with established chemistry with your franchise QB. John Ross and AJ Green are likely gone and the replacement is here. Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Jamarr Chase will now be Joe Burrows receiver corp. **6. PHI – DeVonta Smith (WR) Alabama** While there is not much to get excited about with this team, they do have the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, putting them in a position to add a legitimate impact player to the mix. Expect the Eagles to target either a cornerback or wide receiver with this pick and they have a couple of worthy options at both positions. That being said, Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver DeVonta Smith stands out as the premier choice for this team. **7. DET – Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU** If the Lions move on from Stafford, they will surely be looking for a quarterback in the first round -- and there are a handful of really nice prospects. In this mock I have them selecting Trey Lance. During 2019 season with the Bison, Lance put his arm on full display. He completed 66.9 percent of his pass attempts for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Lance also picked up 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. **8. CAR – Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State** Micah Parsons is an elite prospect that’ll be a 3-down LB on any NFL roster. As a 6-foot-3, 241-pound defensive end, Parsons amassed 41.5 sacks and 64.5 tackles for loss over a three-year span. He also supplemented those figures with 245 total tackles, five forced fumbles, two interceptions, and four passes defended. He will a Swiss Army knife and any defense and Carolina gets a stud with the 8th pick. **9. DEN – Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama** John Elway is no longer making all the decisions for the Broncos, and whether that’s a good or bad thing, they should manage to take a quality talent with the ninth overall selection. The Broncos have done a lot to build up their offense, so I’d expect their defense to be the priority early. Any position on the defense should be considered here, and taking the best available player is always the correct route. That player is Patrick Surtain II. **10. DAL – Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech** A former receiver and another 2020 opt-out, Farley is an elite NFL prospect. At 6-foot-2, 207 pounds, Farley has the size and strength to match up against almost every receiver, but what makes him an impressive prospect is his ability to cover receivers who would generally be faster than someone of his size. The cowboys drastically need DB assistance and Farley will provide much needed help to an awful secondary. **11. NYG - Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama** Daniel Jones probably impressed the Giants brass just enough to keep his job another year, so they must protect him any way they can. They took a tackle last season, so NFL logic dictates that they can’t take another offensive lineman. This means Jaylen Waddle is coming to the Big Apple. Stylistically, Waddle is my favorite receiver in the draft — the speed is shocking. It shouldn’t be legal to average 11.2 yards after the catch per reception, as Waddle did over the past two years at Alabama. **12. HOU Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina** *Houston trades 1.03 to San Francisco for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 first, 2023 Fifth* One of the most significant areas of need for the Texans is at the cornerback position. Based on a trade with San Francisco moved up to the 3rd overall pick, Houston assesses that area. In his three years, he had 101 tackles, 7 for a loss, three sacks, two interceptions, and 23 passes defended. Houston gets an elite outside corner than can provide much needed help on the outside. **13. LAC – Christian Darrisaw (OT) - Virginia Tech** This off-season the chargers need a major upgrade in their offensive line. They have a young QB and it’s almost a miracle that nothing serious happened to him. Enter Christian Darrisaw, his footwork is some of the smoothest in the class. In the open field, Darrisaw moves and climbs to the second level with ease and efficiency. Darrisaw immediately slides in at left tackle as a long-term upgrade over Trey Pipkins. Just from a purely schematic standpoint, **14. MINN – Rashawn Slater (IOL) - Northwestern** As a whole, this draft is a defense-heavy group. However, Minnesota’s top pick is an investment into the offensive line. Rashawn Slater is an athletic, versatile player that can certainly cement a line that can give time for the handful of talented skill position players the Vikings have. Slater can play either tackle or guard, he doesn’t have the natural tackle build especially in his arm length but it didn’t bother him much at Northwestern. He’s a bruiser in the run game and would fit well with the Minnesota scheme leading the way for Dalvin Cook. Slater is also one of the only players who didn’t look foolish against Chase Young back in 2019. **15. NE – Kyle Pitts (WR) - Alabama** If one thing was evident in 2020, is that the Patriots were suffering from the departure of Brady and Gronk. They led the league in the most opt-outs and have most of their defensive players back,a better situation than many teams. However they need to address a receiver bad. Pitts is tall, long and ultra athletic. His versatility allows the Gators to use him in a variety of alignments. He gets a lot of reps as an inline tight end, but he will also play on the wing, flex out in the slot or split all the way out to the perimeter of the formation. **16. ARI – Eric Stokes (CB)** Cardinals are in a challenging position. With a difficult conference and some expensive players up for free agency, they need to invest in their defense in order to compete. Patrick Peterson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Johnathan Joseph, and Kevin Peterson are all scheduled to be free agents and obviously it is too early to tell who is returning. Stokes will a day one starter who can be cheap and effective. **17. LV – Christian Barmore (IDL) - Alabama** The Raiders had options here with Christian Barmore and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah all available. However, their need for an interior presence far outweighs a cornerback or linebackesafety hybrid. The Raiders have invested a lot in their defense, both with draft capital and free agency spending. They only seem like a few pieces away from a playoff-level defense, and Barmore puts them that much closer. **18. PITT – Mac Jones (QB) - Alabama** *MIA trades 1.18 to PITT for 2.55, 4.125, 2022 second * In a heartbreaking move for WFT fans, Pittsburgh jumps to the 18th selection giving up two selections in the 2021 draft and a second round pick in 2022 for their successor at QB. The Steelers haven’t used anything higher than a third-round pick on a quarterback since taking Roethlisberger with the 11th overall pick in 2004. They had no need even as Roethlisberger got into his mid-30s, and they had no inclination even after a major elbow injury in 2019 put his career in jeopardy. But things have changed drastically, and that’s just since November. The Steelers finished the season losing five of six games after an 11-0 start, featuring a sputtering offense that many blamed on Roethlisberger. With his offensive coordinator and good friend, Randy Fichtner, gone, a $41.25 million cap hit (they can save $19 million by releasing him before March 17) and serious questions about his ability, Roethlisberger’s future with the Steelers is uncertain at best. **19. DET – Kwity Paye (EDGE) - Michigan** *WFT trades 1.19 and to DET for Matthew Stafford and 4.102* Paye, listed at 6-foot-4 and 272 pounds, remains an intriguing option for prospective NFL teams. His size and athleticism make him a potential linebacker candidate at the next level, while his four-year tenure at Michigan was spent at defensive end. In 38 games, Paye amassed 100 tackles (23 1/2 for a loss), 11 1/2 sacks, a pass deflection, forced fumble and fumble recovery. A bulk of that production came during the 2019 season, when Paye earned second-team all-Big Ten honors from the coaches while totaling 50 tackles (12 1/2 for a loss) and 6 1/2 sacks. He is an explosive athlete with an NFL body, ready to make an immediate impact on one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Paired with a new head coach, Paye tries to fill the much needed whole in the rush. **20. CHI –Alijah Vera-Tucker (IOL) - USC** The Bears snuck into the playoffs and saved the jobs of Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy and, probably, Mitchell Trubisky. Since Chicago won't find a long-term answer at quarterback here, the Bears address their offensive line which was a big issue in 2020. An all-around product which played Tackle his first two years before moving to guard, Vera-Tucker can provide a versatile piece in a Bears O-line that needs help. **21. IND – Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas** Indianapolis Colts left tackle Anthony Castonzo announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday, just a few days after the 2020 and along with QB and WR it’s the obvious hole in the team. Enter Sam Cosmi, In the run game, Cosmi does a great job of using his quickness to his advantage to get in position. He understands angles well and has the mobility needed to be an impact blocker at the next level. Cosmi is not the most powerful player at the point of attack, but he has strong hands and shows good competitive toughness. He can mix it up against size and at least hold his own against bigger defensive linemen a majority of the time. **22. Tenn - Greg Rousseau (EDGE) - Miami** By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. The Titans recorded a respectable 43 sacks during the 2019-20 season, and tried to take a huge step forward in that department by throwing money at Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney on one-year deals. **23. NYJ via SEA – Patrick Jones II (EDGE) - Pitt** Jones is listed at 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds but looks like he could add more bulk to his lower half, which for most edge rushers is typically a good thing. But man, Jones is already so powerful. And it's all speed-to-power conversion. He explodes off the snap and leans on his bull rush before countering (if necessary). Jones fills the need for a playmaker on the EDGE and a piece on Salehs chessboard. **24. PITT – Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama** The Steelers are in a tough spot in 2021. Alejandro Villanueva, Zach Banner, Jerald Hawkins and Derwin Gray are all free agents next offseason. The Steelers need to get an elite left tackle prospect in this draft is possible. In Alex Leatherwood, Pittsburgh gets a tackle who did not allow a sack two seasons ago in the SEC, and has a ton of experience under his belt. Many consider him to be a potential guard in the NFL, but either way his experience and strength pairs well with what the Steelers do on offense and in the running game. **25. JAC via LAR – Carlos Besham JR. (EDGE) - Wake Forest** Having selected Trevor Lawrence, Urban Meyer knows the next step to winning is domination in the trenches. Besham Jr. is an elite EDGE that dominated college football this year. Look for Besham Jr. to be one of the combine’ top talked about. **26. CLE – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - Norte Dame** When’s the last time the Browns picked this late? It’s a talented team who is a couple athletic pieces on the second and third levels of the defense away from presenting a ton of matchup problems for opposing offenses. “JOK” brings a versatile defender on the second level who brings a ton of possibilities to the defense. Owusu-Koramoah earned unanimous All-American honors this past season after leading the Irish with 11 tackles for loss to go with 62 tackles and three forced fumbles. He was named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year and won the Butkus Award, which goes to the nation's top linebacker. **27. BAL – Quincy Roche (EDGE) - Miami** Roche is a true technician for the position that is polished with his hands, has great vision, and is a quick processor. He has an expansive pass-rushing skill set and is a good run defender, making him a balanced defender that can contribute on every down. In the right scheme, Roche has the ability to develop into a productive starter that knows how to attack the pocket. **28. NO – Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa** After a high school career in which Zaven Collins was a four-year starter at quarterback and linebackesafety, Tulsa was the only Division I program to offer him a scholarship. He ended his college career by claiming the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which is awarded to the nation’s best defensive player. Collins offers an exciting blend of size, length, power, football intelligence, and versatility that makes him a dynamic prospect for the NFL. **29. TB – Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa** Defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh and edge rusher Shaq Barrett are both set to become free agents when the 2020 season is over, while the Bucs are on a cap space crunch and may not be able to keep both guys. Heck, they may not even be able to keep one of them, unless Suh becomes cheaper given his age. In return, the bucs get cheaper with the selection of Nixon. Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon projects as a prototypical 3T even front defender at the next level. Nixon has very good spring and burst out of his stance to shoot gaps and create havoc in the backfield. **30. BUF – Wyatt Davis (IOL) - Ohio State** At 6-foot-4, 315 pounds, Davis is an athletic specimen who possesses unmatched length for an interior lineman. This is paired with smooth feet that naturally glide from block to block whilst delivering crushing blocks. Davis operated in a zone-blocking scheme at Ohio State but showed every bit of athleticism necessary to operate as a pulling guard in a man-blocking scheme. **31. GB - Jay Tufele (DT) - USC** It wasn’t that long ago when the Packers were comfortable with the performance on the defensive line. My, how far they have fallen. Kenny Clark is their only consistent player in the trenches they can truly count on. Kingsley Keke is quietly emerging and could be a quality player, but Dean Lowry, Tyler Lancaster and Montravius Adams clearly can’t be counted on. Jay Tufele is one of the most athletic defensive tackles in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has a motor, and he will track you down even if it is 20 yards down the field. Tufele has blocked kicks, he has been super disruptive on pass plays and he is a stud at run stuffing. **32. KC – Jaelen Phillips (EDGE)- Miami** One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. A balanced defender, Phillips is a playmaker against the run and pass, where his exciting blend of size, length, power, technique, and athleticism make him a challenge for offenses to neutralize. Phillips is a versatile player that has experience playing with his hand in the dirt on the edge, rushing from interior alignments, and playing in space in a standup role—which makes him a fit for all teams in the NFL. **2nd Round** **33. JAC - Rondale Moore (WR) - Purdue** Urban Meyer wants his team to be fast. What better way to do that than to add Rondale Moore to the mix? Wide receiver isn't a huge need for the Jaguars considering DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Collin Johnson are a trio of solid players, but the Jaguars could always use more ammo on offense to set Trevor Lawrence up for success. With starting slot receiver Keelan Cole set to be a free agent in March, Moore could instantly step into his role on the depth chart and present a different type of wide receiver to the team. **34. NYJ - Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama** The New York Jets had no truly dependable running back option outside of the 39-year-old Frank Gore during their terrible 2020 season. New York has some young RBs like Ty Johnson and La'Mical Perine on the roster, but none of them are as electric as Harris. The Jets need talent, and few are as talented in this running back class as Harris. If New York is sold on the Alabama RB, they could even take him at No. 23 since they own the Seattle Seahawks' first-rounder. **35. ATL - Jevon Holland (S) - Oregon** Holland is an intriguing athlete. He doesn’t appear to have any one dominant trait, but he’s solid overall. Holland has good speed and explosiveness, and although his agility more resembles effort agility and game pace than actual athletic looseness, he has the ability to change directions with relative ease. **36. MIA - Creed Humphrey (IOL) - Oklahoma** The Miami Dolphins have put together an interesting group of offensive linemen, with most of their additions coming the 2020 offseason This is a talented group with some serious upside, but there is still some room for improvement here. Humphrey is a wide-bodied interior blocker that has a wealth of experience along the interior. With 37 career starts (36 straight), he’s been a three-year starter that’s been a key cog of one of the most explosive offenses in the country. As a left-handed center, he’s one of the few in the country. While being a limited athlete, he has the smarts of knowing how to use his frame, strength, and football IQ to his advantage. **37. PHI - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) - Florida State** Cornerback clearly is a position of need for the Eagles. They have to find someone to pair with Slay. Avonte Maddox is not the answer on the outside. The 5-9 Maddox belongs either back in the slot or at safety. Samuel Jr. is a touch undersized, but he is outstanding in man coverage where his natural pattern matching instincts, loose hips, and quick feet make him tough to separate from. **38. CIN - Jalen Mayfield (OT) - Michigan** The Bengals need help across the board here. At guard, Quinton Spain hasn’t been a massive improvement that signals he’s a long-term fix. Xavier Su’a-Filo isn’t necessarily that either. And right tackle is a problem with Bobby Hart, as it has been for years. Jalen Mayfield projects as a high-quality starting offensive lineman at the NFL level. He’s got ample size and athleticism to play in space in pass protection and with just two years of starting experience under his belt, Mayfield is only going to continue to get better with more repetitions. **39. CAR - Trey Smith (IOL) - Tennessee** Getting a stud college prospect that can be a plug-and-play starter at the guard spot is essential early in the 2021 NFL Draft. Carolina needs to protect Bridgewater as much as possible and when they’ve managed to do this during the current campaign, the signal-caller has thrived more often than not. If you want power, Trey Smith is going to be near the top of your list on the interior offensive line. The Tennessee guard is a mauler and a people-mover, and it all stems from his incredible upper body strength and torque. Smith carries immense potential energy in his upper body on each play. As a pass protector, his initial hand strikes are incredibly strong and precise, and when he gets his man off-balance, he has the grip strength and the finishing power to negate them in totality. **40. DEN- Marvin Wilson (DT) - Florida State** The Denver Broncos could take a major hit on the defensive line this offseason. With Jurrell Casey, Shelby Harris and Demarcus Walker all headed for free agency, the Broncos will likely have to look elsewhere to replenish their defensive line. **41. DET - Rashod Bateman (WR) -Minnesota** Bateman offers an impressive blend of route running, ball skills and competitive toughness into a frame that should alleviate any concerns about his projection to working on the boundary. Bateman's collegiate offense utilized him on a lot of in-breaking patterns and finding first & second throwing windows via run/pass option concepts at Minnesota, but he shouldn't be pegged as only a zone beater or "slot" target. Bateman's ability to track the football and win at the catch point flash just as much as his smooth breaks and easy acceleration off the line of scrimmage. While he's not a true burner, there should be no concerns regarding separation ability thanks to a diverse release package and effectiveness at the top of route stems in a number of ways. **42. NYG - Joseph Assai (DE) - Texas** The NY Giants have admirably tried to make their pass rush a proud unit that is a core symbol of the franchise’s history. Unfortunately, injuries and a lack of developmental progression has held the EDGE rushers back from making a significant difference in this defense. Instead, the defense’s success has funneled more through the team’s interior defensive linemen and inside linebackers.. Ossai spent time seesawing back and forth between off-ball linebacker and defensive end. As a result, he was unable to find his comfort zone while experimenting with both positions. It wasn't until his final season at Texas where he settled in as a true edge rusher. **43. HOU - Jayson Oweh (DE) - Penn State** *Houston trades 1.03 to San Francisco for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 first, 2023 Fifth* The Texans need help up front, and one shouldn’t assume that there is anyone above replacement, and that would include J.J. Watt. And, frankly, trading or releasing Watt would basically mean the Texans are resetting the roster, anyway. The Texans don’t have a backup behind Watt on the depth chart, but the issue is bigger than one player. At 6-foot-5, 252 pounds, Oweh reportedly has a 4.33 40-yard dash, a 36.5-inch vertical, and a 127-inch broad jump. We’ll need to wait for official confirmation on those numbers at the NFL Combine. Oweh’s burst is a problem for linemen. More often than not, he can get a step on blockers right away. Once he has that leverage, he has the torso flexibility and bend to dip inside and crash the pocket. Teams frequently defaulted to quick passes just to combat Oweh’s speed as a pass rusher. **44. DAL - Liam Eichenburg (OT) - Notre Dame** Eichenberg stands at 6-foot-6, 305 pounds with adequate arm length. He moves well in space and does an excellent job of keeping his feet controlled to engage defenders in space. Notre Dame designs numerous screens that flow towards Eichenberg’s side, and he does a great job of sealing and cutting off linebackers and defensive backs on the move. He understands angles in space and rarely lunges or over-extends when trying to hit his target. **45. JAC - Pat Friermuth (TE) - Penn State** Consider this: James O'Shaughnessy led all Jaguars' tight ends in catches, yards, and touchdowns in 2019, and he didn't even play in five full games. From Geoff Swaim to Seth DeValve to Josh Oliver to Ben Koyack to Nick O'Leary, the Jaguars failed to get production from the tight end position for the entirety of 2019, and especially so when O'Shaughnessy suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 5. Freiermuth has a prototypical build for the tight end position and ample ceiling as a blocker to continue to develop into a quality asset with his hand in the dirt in the run game. But today’s NFL is ultimately rooted in the passing game and tight ends are the new-age mismatch weapons that put defensive play-callers in a bind. Freiermuth can be that caliber of a receiver thanks to his blend of size, hands, route-running, and physicality in the secondary. **46. NE - Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida** Trask has the ideal size for an NFL quarterback and has competitive toughness. The journey that the Florida quarterback has taken to get to this point is evidence of his mental toughness. Trask has excellent football intelligence and uses this to make good decisions on the field, as evidenced by his consistently low interception numbers throughout his career. **47. LAC - Ben Cleveland (IOL) - Georgia** Beyond addressing the coaching spot, the Chargers need to hammer their oft-injured and scattershot offensive line. The unit that Justin Herbert was working behind, which gets him significantly hurried at least once every three-down series, is not conducive to long-term success. The Chargers can certainly re-sign their interior offensive line if they feel they can be better moving forward, but both Dan Feeney (C) and Forrest Lamp (LG) are free agents in the 2021 offseason. However, It’s best for them to probably move on. The six-foot-six, 334-pound behemoth could be an absolute mauler in the NFL. His college pedigree certainly indicates that Cleveland could be a beast, he was the highest-rated guard in the SEC at one point per PFF. They also pointed out Cleveland’s attributes in the run game are also strong, he graded out at 77.4 for his senior year with the Bulldogs. **48. LV - Azeez Ojulari (LB/DE) - Georgia** The Las Vegas Raiders have a big need at the linebacker position and this front office loves to take players who come from major college football programs. In Ojulari, the Raiders finally draft another versatile linebacker. Scheming with a player like the prospect should not be a problem. Playing all three downs allows Ojulari to use his vast array of talents to the fullest. With the faces of the AFC becoming younger and changing, the Raiders need to immediately address this. While the Raiders’ front seven looks crowd, it’s neither talented nor athletic. As a result, this pick looks smart and rather strong. Vegas need help to slow down the Chiefs **49. AZ - Terrace Marshal Jr. (WR) - LSU** Marshall is a versatile receiver that has proven himself both from the slot and out wide while attacking all levels of the field with consistency. He offers terrific size, physicality, hands, ball skills, run after catch ability, route-running skills, and overall technical-refinement. **50. MIA - Travis Etienne (RB) - Clemson** The Miami Dolphins need to upgrade their running back situation and the NFL Draft in April should provide some help but Miami may not be able to wait and risk not having a secured starter for 2021 Etienne is built fairly well at 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, and his lower body is particularly dense. That’s where his explosion capacity derives from, but he also brings excellent contact balance as well. Etienne’s short-area burst and twitch allows him to frequently avoid direct contact, but even when he does experience direct contact, he can bounce off hits and recover quickly with his balance and flexibility. **51. WFT - Nick Bolton (LB) - Missouri** Drafting a quality linebacker will likely be a very smart decision for Washington. Middle linebackers are often called the quarterbacks of the defense. Parsons would be an excellent linebacker that could lead this young defense to greatness. Bolton cemented himself as one of 2021’s top linebacker prospects. Small in stature for the position, Bolton makes his living as a strong athlete with great instincts for the game. He’s a sparkplug on the field and projects as a player NFL teams would love in their locker room. A leader both on and off the field, he looks to transition into a MIKE backer in the NFL. **52. CHI - Hamsah Nasirildeen (S) - Florida State** What Ryan Pace and Chuck Pagano love to have on their defense are players who can show versatility. For example, Pagano loves Eddie Jackson not only for his ability to ball on the field but for his ability to play anywhere as a safety. He can line up in the box, single-high, or marking players in the slot. Hamsah Nasirildeen is just like that. Nasirildeen is a very big safety, but that doesn’t take away from his athletic ability. At 6’4″ and 212 pounds, he could contest for one of the biggest safeties in the NFL. He is a hard-hitting safety with great ball instincts. It remains to be seen what he would test for his other athletic traits, but as of now, his talent should translate perfectly to the next level. **53. TEN - Kadarius Toney (WR) - Florida** Like many of the Titans’ needs outside of rushing the passer, this one largely depends on what happens in free agency. Corey Davis is set to become a free agent after posting the best numbers of his young career. The Titans declined to pick up his fifth year option before the season began, and with A.J. Brown as the clear cut No. 1 receiver on the team, Davis could look to land a huge payday elsewhere. Toney has a special combination of speed and quickness that makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field. He shakes defenders with ease when facing man-to-man coverage and has shown the ability to find soft spots against zone. Once the ball is in his hands, Toney kicks it into high gear and often leaves the defense in his dust. **54. IND -Paulson Adebo (CB) -Stanford ** Kenny Moore is one of the best slot corners in the NFL, but the Colts need to start surrounding him with more talent on the outside. Young corner Rock Ya-Sin had an up and down campaign, and veteran Xavier Rhodes is set to hit free agency after signing a one-year deal with the team last offseason. The Colts had no answer for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs during their Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills. Adebo, who is 6’1″ and 190 pounds, has the size and physicality to be a successful cornerback in the NFL. He has good length, great ball skills, and fluid hips. He may not be super fast or have great short-area quickness but he has solid instincts and does an adequate job in deep coverage. **55. MIA - Dylan Moses (LB) - Alabama** *MIA trades 1.18 to PITT for 2.55, 4.125, 2022 second * The Miami Dolphins have completely transformed their roster heading into the 2020 NFL season. That transformation continued this weekend when Miami sent linebacker Raekwon McMillan and a 2021 fifth-round selection to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a 2021 fourth-round pick. The linebacker position has surfaced as Miami’s biggest need on the defensive side of the ball and should be an area of focus for the organization next offseason. Heading into the 2019 college football season, many considered Moses as the best linebacker in the nation. Unfortunately, he never saw the field last season as he suffered a torn ACL just a couple weeks prior to the season’s start. **56. SEA - Hamilcar Rashed Jr. (DE) - Oregon State** Seattle’s defense was imperfect in many ways but they were most deficient in terms of generating a consistent pass rush with their defensive line. They saw players like young Alton Robinson flash but, even then, there is a lot of work to be done. Rashed has good length at 6-foot-4, 245. This length allows him to get his hands on linemen early, and while he’s still very much a work in progress with his hands, he’s flashed the ability to use quick, powerful swipes to open up lanes for himself. Additionally, he uses this length to disrupt the passing lane when in position, as evidenced by his six career pass deflections. **57. LAR - Cam Mcgrone (LB)- Michigan** While the Rams have arguably the top defense in the NFL, they have a positional need at linebacker. While starting linebacker Micah Kiser has been outperforming expectations when healthy, he still has missed a handful of games due to injury. Not only that but the depth behind him is also is minimal and needs a boost. McGrone is just a redshirt sophomore who enters the NFL draft process with just 19 games and 15 starts at Michigan under his belt—a significantly small sample size that will leave teams needing a little extra clarity in order to decipher his ceiling within their respective defensive systems. **58. BAL - Deonte Brown (IOL) - Alabama** There is no doubt the Ravens could use some more depth on the interior offensive line. This may actually end up being a position group the Ravens look into upgrading through free agency or trade, as they have a few young players already in place, but Deonte Brown is an ideal pick up in the second round. Starting in 24 of 46 career games, Brown possesses a beefy and wide-bodied frame with a well above average amount of strength at the point of attack. Physically, he is an effective run blocker with lots of attractive skills. Aggressive in the running game, he shows high strength levels and awareness. In Alabama’s downhill run scheme, he’s allowed to stay on track and road grade any target that’s directly in front of him. Easily able to move defenders and dislodging them out of gaps, he’s best suited in a man/power-based blocking scheme. **59. CLE Chris Rumph II (EDGE) - Duke ** The full potential of Olivier Vernon and Myles Garrett playing on opposite ends will never be realized. Vernon suffered an Achilles injury in Week 17 and is a free agent, which means Berry must find an end to replace him. Veteran Adrian Clayborn remains under contract for one more season but he isn’t a long-term option and plays better coming off the bench. Listed at 6-4 and 235 pounds, packing on weight is a must for Rumph as he enters the NFL, but I don't think he needs to be significantly heavier to succeed in today's NFL that's prioritizing speed and quickness over size and power. **60. NO - Tyson Campbell (CB) - Georgia** The New Orleans Saints have put together one of the league’s best defenses this season, but this pick makes them even better on paper for 2021. Dennis Allen has relied on Chauncey Gardner-Johnson as their slot cornerback this season, and while he has played well, most of Gardner-Johnson’s experience is at safety and cornerback during his college days. New Orleans needs more help outside the slot, with Marshon Lattimore entering the final year of his rookie contract and Janoris Jenkins looking like a potential salary cap casualty in the spring. Tyson Campbell aligns at cornerback for the Bulldogs defense. He plays the position with very good athleticism overall, as evidenced by his agility and short-area quickness. He has the NFL body type and frame teams covet for the position. **61. TB - Trey Sermon (RB) - Ohio State** Coming off one of the best seasons in their history with arguably the best quarterback ever to play the game in Tom Brady, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to the draft to fill potential holes on the offense. Those holes include backup running back, center, left tackle, and tight end. With Ronald Jones II as running back one for at least one more season and KeShawn Vaughn entering his second year, the Bucs will need another back or two to replace Leonard Fournette. Ohio State running back Trey Sermon is one of the hottest running back prospects in football on the heels of an offensive explosion amid the Ohio State Buckeyes’ run to the National Championship game. Sermon wrangled the primary ball-carrier duties after splitting the load for much of the season with Master Teague III and has made the most of his opportunities; shredding two high-profile defenses in high-profile games. **62. BUF - Chazz Surratt (LB) - UNC ** There is no question that Chazz Surratt has one of the more unique college careers as it is rare for a player to go from playing quarterback to switching positions to linebacker. He played two seasons at quarterback in 2017 and 2018 before playing linebacker last year. At 6’3″ and 230 pounds, he looks to be exactly the type of linebacker that Sean McDermott likes for his defense. He is very athletic and can move sideline to sideline and could be an excellent replacement for Matt Milano **63. GB - Joshua Jobe (CB) - Alabama** Sticking with the secondary, adding a cornerback on Day 1 or 2 should be at or near the top of the Packers’ list. Kevin King is a pending free agent and it’s unclear if the two sides will be able to agree to a contract extension. At 6-foot-1, 192 pounds, Jobe is a well-built cornerback who packs a surprising amount of play strength and physicality into a sub-200-pound frame. Jobe also has very good length, which he uses effervescently — almost to a fault. **64. KC - Josh Myers (IOL) - Ohio State** The three interior positions are all up for grabs in 2021. Some may point to the return of Laurent Duvernay-Tardif as a means to solidify the group, but he will be 18 months removed from football the next time he sees the field — and he wasn’t particularly good in 2019. Austin Reiter is a free agent, as is Daniel Kilgore. The logical selection is their interior offensive line. Myers earned the starting center position in 2019 as a sophomore and had an excellent debut for the Buckeyes. He has good size with length for an interior blocker, and was tough at the point of attack. Myers was an effective run blocker for J.K. Dobbins and a steady pass protector for Justin Fields. Note: Most commentary are not my own and belong to websites such as: Thedraftnetwork.com, profootballnetwork.com, 247sports, and nflmocks.com
Get the latest NFL Super Bowl picks from CBS Sports. Experts weigh in with analysis and provide premium picks for upcoming NFL games. Pickwatch tracks NFL expert picks and millions of fan picks for free to tell you who the most accurate handicappers in 2020 are at ESPN, CBS, FOX and many more are, straight up and against the spread. The NFL's seventh week can't start much lower than the New York Giants at the Philadelphia Eagles. The good news is things pick up and there is a great matchup between the unbeaten Pittsburgh ... Welcome to Pickwatch, the home of NFL expert picks. We track all the experts from ESPN, CBS, Profootballfocus and more and compare them for accuracy! NFL expert picks, predictions for Week 7, highlighted by Pittsburgh vs Tennessee, Chicago vs Los Angeles Rams, Seattle vs Arizona, San Francisco vs New England * next to the pick means the team ... Regular Season NFL Expert Picks – NFL Picks This Week Some sites solely focus on the marquee games of an NFL slate but our system features expert picks for every game of the NFL season. The best way to have success in NFL betting is by finding those under-the-radar games like Miami at Jacksonville that do not draw as much public betting interest as Dallas vs. Green Bay. Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season, as well as the latest betting odds. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark . New York Giants (+4.5 ... NFL week 7 Best ATS Picks, previews, stats, analysis, predictions. Check out our expert NFL picks against the spread for all 14 games in week 7, complete with betting tips and the best sportsbook ... Get the latest NFL Week 7 picks from CBS Sports. Experts weigh in with analysis and provide premium picks for upcoming NFL games. Week 7 around the NFL is serving up some good games, including a matchup of undefeated teams in the AFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans will put their identical 5-0 records on the ...
My week 7 NFL picks against the spread. NFL betting oddshttps://www.facebook.com/pattonforthepeople/?ref=bookmarkshttps://twitter.com/AJPatton10https://www.... 2019 NFL Week 7 Spread Picks. NFL Week 7 Picks ATS. NFL Score Predictions Week 7Juniors Scores, Playoff Predictions, Mock Drafts, Bonus Videos & More! https... 👆1 Pick Per Day: https://www.patreon.com/join/brockpage/checkout?rid=2608940 ️2 Picks Per Day: https://www.patreon.com/join/brockpage/checkout?rid=2615342 💵... Week 7 Game Picks! NFL 2019Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channels:NFL Vault http://www.youtube.com/nflvaultNFL Network http://ww... 5 - Against the Spread selections for week 7 of the NFL. 4 sides & 1 total. Not my favorite week but I looking at the technical & fundamentals, you have my a... 0:26 New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings1:11 Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers2:23 Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots3:42 Baltimore Ravens vs. Ne... Watch GameDay Pick'Em for expert advice on game and player odds for Week 7. NFL Network hosts Dan Hellie, Erin Coscarelli, Terrell Davis and Cynthia Frelund ...
