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Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

Achievements:
Ref: https://imgur.com/OgrCGNg
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
Ref:
https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV
https://imgur.com/qE13Y32

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:

BB Revenue:

Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources.
2021 Fiscal year
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
submitted by whatisgf to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

Achievements:
Ref: https://imgur.com/OgrCGNg
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
Ref:
https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV
https://imgur.com/qE13Y32

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:

BB Revenue:

Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources.
2021 Fiscal year
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
submitted by whatisgf to stocks [link] [comments]

Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

Achievements:
https://preview.redd.it/cz63xa3mpdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d43da67de4b0ed5c4ed30205b8f95aaeec0551a
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Certifications
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
https://preview.redd.it/gzh9ledvkdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=78121316772b69e9337623695dfde2a7e58cb44a
https://preview.redd.it/f7ygjt9wkdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a3207f447c23954e2fdb6236baea642373dc6cf

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:

BB Revenue:

2021 Fiscal year
2021 Fiscal year Revenue
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
https://preview.redd.it/147chgljmdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=af6ade569cac42d01dcef342390394b79e588e0b
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
https://preview.redd.it/52xi873qmdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=8643de72c426efc2f08fa9cf431bbb2c5fbbb26e
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013:
https://preview.redd.it/aen6tm7tmdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=69907fd3fc1ed299f100fde92c68e5a5665ebd6f
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using.
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
https://preview.redd.it/abqz6zscndf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=632f51e1c860000c77f238cff6e1db4c0ccaea19
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 15 2023 calls. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
submitted by whatisgf to BB_Stock [link] [comments]

Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALE

Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALE
Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALE
TLDR: $TSLA is likely partnering with $VALE to produce the insane quantity of Nickel needed to make Tesla’s vehicles, this is almost certainly happening for the following reasons…
READ FULL BEST DD ON WSB
  • $VALE is the largest nickel producer in the entire world, with Tesla constantly calling for more Nickel production the partnership potential for these two companies is a match made in heaven.
  • $VALE notified creditors on September 14th that it was paying off it’s $5 billion debt, suggesting a large deal leveling them an insane amount of capital.
  • $VALE’s trading volume is up 37% from it’s average and has bullish whale activity in the options chain.
  • Earlier this month, $VALE announced that they would be paying an extra dividend, on top of their regularly scheduled dividend, reinforcing the thesis of a strong balance sheet
  • Tesla and $VALE already have a history of being bidirectional business partners for over a year.
  • Conservative estimates reveal Tesla's growth plan leaves $VALE’s competitors ill equipped to deal with the demand for nickel Tesla needs to produce it's vehicles within five years.
>>>TESLA NEEDS NICKEL<<<
If there is one to take away from this post, it is the fact that Tesla vehicles need nickel and insane quantities of it. No one is better equipped to supply nickel to Tesla than $VALE. During Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, Elon painstakingly laid out how badly they were looking for a nickel producer.
“Well, I’d just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. Okay. Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago, whatever. Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel.”
>>>THE STARS ALIGNED<<<
The following points are largely circumstantial evidence, however when stacked together create an extremely powerful narrative and points toward the extreme likelihood of $VALE actually having lined up a revolutionary deal with Tesla.
Quotes from Tesla Q2 2020 Earnings Call
“There’s so much to be excited about. It’s really hard to kind of fit into this call, but the sheer amount of hardcore engineering, especially on the autonomy and the manufacturing/engineering front is mind-blowing. And then of course there’s Battery Day, which is coming up pretty soon. And I think that’s really going to surprise people by just how much there is to see.”-Elon Musk
“Yeah. The real limitation on Tesla growth is cell production at affordable price. That’s the real limit. So that’s where — we’re going to talk about — a lot more about this on Battery Day because this is a fundamental scaling constraint. And any part of that supply chain or processing at the cell level will be a limiting factor. So whatever it may be, anywhere from mining to refining — there’s many steps from refining to cathode and anode, cell formation. Whatever the choke point is, that will set the growth rate. And so we expect to expand our business with Panasonic, with CATL, with LG, possibly with others, and there’s a lot more to say on that front on Battery Day.”-Elon Musk
“Well, I’d just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. Okay. Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago, whatever. Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel.”-Elon Musk
“Like the thing that bugs me the most about where we are right now is that our cars are not affordable enough. We need to fix that. So we’re all making progress in that regard, just sort of steadily gaining progress. So yeah, we need to not go bankrupt, obviously. That’s important, because then we’ll fail in our mission. But we’re not trying to be super profitable either, obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%. It’s not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable. Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth, and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that’s what we’re trying to achieve.”-Elon Musk

Battery Breakdown
Battery Breakdown
Philippe Houchois — Jefferies — Analyst
“Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. You mentioned a few times about the constraint to growth is battery capacity still. And I was hoping you could clarify the scope of the Berlin plant you’re building right now. Will there be — the battery capacity consistent with the amount of assembly volume you expect to come out of Berlin? And if not, will you be able to source your battery requirements out of Europe? Will you have to import batteries from outside Europe to ensure production in Berlin?
Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
Okay. We can’t say too much about this, except that there will be local cell production, and that will serve the needs of the Berlin factory. Drew, is there anything…?”(TeslaRati by Joey Klender)
$VALE mines nickel in Brazil, Canada, Indonesia and New Caledonia making it the LARGEST producer of nickel. VALE has joint-venture refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, the UK and Taiwan. These locations will help deliver nickel to the Tesla factories in North America, Berlin and China.
Future Nickel Demand
According To Tesla CEO Elon Musk, This Metal is The New Gold
The demand and future of nickel will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Electric vehicles and other modern technology NEED nickel to function.
“With demand expected to increase from 2.2 million metric tons to somewhere in the range of 3.5 million to 4.0 million metric tons by 2030, the nickel market could become constrained.”-McKinsey and Company By Marcelo Azevedo, Nicolas Goffaux, and Ken Hoffman

Nickel Demand
Nickel Demand
Elon Musk’s Emphasis on “Environmentally Friendly”
During the call and clip that was hyperlinked above, Elon emphasizes the demand for an “environmentally friendly” mine. Historically, we all know mines have run into trouble with being friendly toward the environment. Today more than ever, a company's concern for the environment must be vocally expressed and physically acknowledged. If not, the reporters and media will bash Tesla for not being environmentally sensitive. Elon Musk understands this and is aware that the nickel company Tesla chooses must at least appear as if they are environmentally “sensitive". Vale’s website has information on how they are sustainable and conscious of the controversies surrounding the mining industry.
“Given Tesla’s focus on sustainability, the company is likely to prefer to buy from miners of higher-grade nickel sulphide, which requires less power to process than laterite ore, said Lachlan Shaw of National Australia Bank.”-Reuters, Yilei Sun, Melanie Burton“There are three key suppliers - Brazil's Vale VALE3.SA, which operates in Canada using some hydropower, Russia's Norilsk Nickel GMKN.MM and BHP Group's operations BHP.AX in Western Australia. "Vale is in the box seat," he said.”-Reuters, Yilei Sun, Melanie Burton
Just the appearance and attempt to be environmental is enough to scare away most journalists who are looking to make a hit piece on Tesla. To wrap it up, Vale has the efficient, sustainable, and environmental mining that Elon Musk is looking for.

Stock Fundamentals and Technicals
$VALE Average Volume: 27,756,238
9/15/2020 volume: 44,035,430
This is a 37% increase in Volume compared to the average volume.
Current P/E of 50.53, Forward P/E of 5.22
Annual Yield 6.06% Ex date 9/22/2020 Pay date 10/07/2020
Extra Dividend of 1.63% Ex date 9/22/2020 Pay date 10/07/2020
Hedge Funds who own $VALE
Bill Ackman: Pershing Square Capital Management
Carl Icahn: Icahn Carl C
Warren Buffet: Berkshire Hathaway/Dividend Stock Portfolio
George Soros: Soros Fund Management
Laurence D. Fink: Blackrock Inc.
etc...
“A study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages shows that Vale SA (NYSE:VALE) is the #11 broker analyst pick, on average, out of the 50 stocks making up the Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index, according to Metals Channel. The Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index is comprised of the top fifty global leaders from the metals and mining sector.” (Metals channel staff)
Whale Activity
FlowAlgo of VALE and Volume/OI below in the green box

Bullish FlowAlgo



Volume and Open interest on far right
***Technicals:***
Monthly signals: Buy
Simple Exponential
MA(5) Buy Buy
MA(10)Buy Buy
MA(20)Buy Buy
MA(50)Buy Buy
MA(100)Buy Sell
MA(200)Sell Sell
9 buys 3 sells
RSI(14)Neutral(52.393)
STOCH(9,6): Neutral
STOCHRSI(14)Overbought
MACD(12,26)Sell
CCI(14)Neutral
Weekly Signals: Strong Buy
Simple Exponential
MA(5) Buy Buy
MA(10)Buy Buy
MA(20)Buy Buy
MA(50)Buy Buy
MA(100)Buy Buy
MA(200)Buy Buy
12 buy 0 sell
RSI(14) Buy (60.683)
STOCH(9,6):Buy (61.174)
STOCHRSI(14)Overbought
MACD(12,26) Buy
CCI(14)Buy
Daily Signals: Strong Buy
Simple Exponential
MA(5) Buy Buy
MA(10)Buy Buy
MA(20)Buy Buy
MA(50)Buy Buy
MA(100)Buy Buy
MA(200)Buy Buy
12 buy 0 sell
RSI(14) Buy (58.562)
STOCH(9,6) Neutral
STOCHRSI(14) Overbought
MACD(12,26) Buy
CCI(14)Overbought

News Doesn't Care About Technical Analysis
No matter how good the TA setup is for $VALE, news does not give a FUCK about TA. If it has a catalyst to moon... moon it will.
Cash Flow
The increasing and regular cash flow has built a very strong balance sheet for VALE and the consistent high yield will keep the loyal investors around. In addition to this year's regular dividend, $VALE is paying investors an extra dividend of 1.63% on the same day as the regular. According to research firms such as CFRA, the management team has been very active and engaged to keep the company moving in the right direction despite COVID-19 setbacks and a decrease in steel demand.

Balance Sheet
Competition
$HNCKF (Giga Metals corp) a competing mining company fell 18.84% today after being in the news about potentially being a candidate for Tesla’s nickel demand. Currently, at a conservative rate, Giga’s mine would stop being able to satisfy Tesla’s Nickel needs by 2025, assuming they would be able to begin mining operations immediately. On the other hand, yesterday (Sept. 16), Vale announced that they had created buffers to reach production of 400 million metric tons of total mineral mining per year in a filing that was part of an investor tour presentation. Nickel is one of the five metals Vale mines.


Competition
I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine
Tesla and Vale already have a bidirectional relationship that GM and NKLA could never even dream of. Tesla and Vale have a history of working together. In March, “Antonin Beurrier, CEO of Vale-NC and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, signed a contract, an offtake agreement for the delivery of intermediate mixed nickel and refined cobalt (Nickel Hydroxide Cake-NHC) produced in New Caledonia. The product will become part of Tesla’s battery composition. The purchased volume remains confidential.”-Tesmanian by Eva Fox (original french source). Tesla and Vale have already signed a confidential contract in regards to Tesla’s battery composition materials needed.
In 2019, Tesla hired an Engineer from Vale-NC to “facilitate procurement and familiarization with the products of the Caledonian plant”
"Tesla has recruited an engineer in a nickel-cobalt refinery in New Caledonia, that of Vale, in order to facilitate purchases for its large European electric vehicle factory in Berlin."
Vale using Tesla’s Lithium batteries at Guaiba iron ore port
“Iron ore miner Vale is installing a Tesla battery energy storage system at Ilha Guaiba terminal in Rio de Janeiro state to help meet power needs at the port as it moves toward energy saving technology.”-London
The project will substitute 20% of the facility's power costs using Tesla manufactured lithium-ion batteries with technology contributing to decarbonization plans, Vale said in an Aug. 24 statement.”-London
Tesla’s technology is being used to lower costs at Vale’s iron ore and to contribute to the “decarbonization plans”. If you remember in the Q2 conference call, Elon Musk was searching for environmental and efficient nickel. Vale has that now thanks to Tesla's battery technology.
More Vale environmentalism
‘Vale recently announced investments of over $2 billion to reduce direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions by 33% until 2030, in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Vale said it intends to become carbon neutral by 2050.”
"As Vale continues to decarbonize its operations, the use of batteries will become an increasingly important part of the electrification of our fleet," Vale's energy director Ricardo Mendes said in the statement.
"This project allows us to test new technology in the field and accelerate Vale's energy transformation, which aims to achieve self-sufficiency by increasing electric power generation mainly through solar and wind sources in addition to our hydroelectric power generation,"-London

https://preview.redd.it/lg8lcg138wn51.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f1d75e91029855f98c43f6f617a25e747dfc011
Guess who has a large nickel mine in Indonesia, $VALE
Pricing and Math
After calculating a very conservative estimate of how much nickel Tesla would be needing in the future, these were the results… (see figure below)
With a conservative estimate of a $43 billion dollar contract, $43 billion minus the operating margin (38%)= $16.5 billion. This gives the stock 28% upside. The price target for $VALE is $15.36 with a 5% variance giving a low at $14.80 and a high of $16.00 Not to mention the stock market acts very irrational in times of hype, the stock could very well overreact to $20+CFRA’s current 12 month price target for VALE is $15.00, whom most likely have not anticipated Tesla news. (If they get the news, this thing will FLY based on what we have seen this year)
Elon Musk stated that Tesla “will give you a giant contract for a long period of time

Conservative nickel projections

This is not taking into account that the price of nickel is lagging in comparison to its current and future demand. Current nickel price as of 9/16/20: $15,229.50 per ton

Nickel Price: $15,229.50 per ton
Once the demand for nickel goes up and the supply grows scarce, that's easy economics theory, nickel price goes up.
The Plot Thickens
Put on your tinfoil hats for this one…
Elon Musk has a history of hiding stuff in his tweets.


https://preview.redd.it/cg0cdgbk8wn51.png?width=2874&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d2ce4935ee743b66bebaf5234a07ea451a991e6
We remember this one. He had called out that Tesla stock was too high at a pre split price of $750
  • The timestamp 8:11 signaled calendar date 8/11
  • The date of posting May 1st turned into 5/1
  • “Tesla stock price is too high imo” signaled that a stock split was imminent
What happened, on 8/11 Tesla announced a 5/1 stock split

https://preview.redd.it/twv8ll8o8wn51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=82b5c5810199912052728f3f71a3b282e3015fdd
Elon Musk has had a rough history with the SEC whom he outspokenly does not respect. This tweet was deciphered to read “Suck Elon’s Cock”


https://preview.redd.it/j5jcgd7r8wn51.jpg?width=984&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b9c77833dc918b0468b7efda79562ebc3e5660d
The Tesla short shorts represented the current Tesla models,
  • Model S
  • Model 3
  • Model X
  • Model Y
Elon expressing his lack of respect for the SEC and nobody is perfect

https://reddit.com/link/iuk3h0/video/moea3oqt8wn51/player
Reporter: “But how do they know if it is going to move the market if they are not reading all of them?”
Elon Musk: “I guess we might make some mistakes, who knows?”
Reporter: “Are you serious?”
Elon Musk: “Nobody's perfect”
Now let’s break down the battery day tweet

https://preview.redd.it/rujh3x609wn51.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=74f49f2c3cf5b58a2c7b062d385f1c84ce2962ae
  • The tweet was tweeted on the same day as $VALE’s dividend announcement (9/11)
  • Battery day is on the same day $VALE’s ex date for the regular and extra dividend (9/22)
  • “Many exciting things will be unveiled on Battery Day”
UNVEILED = unVEILed = VEIL = $VALE

VALE GANG

I rest my case
Positions
VALE 9/25 $12.00c
VALE 9/25 $13.00c
VALE 1/15/2021 $12.00c

$VALE GANG

EDIT: formatting, GIGA Metals is down 11%
EDIT 2: I'm not fucking selling. Either we moon to Valehalla or the captain goes down with his ship.
disclaimer: none of this is financial advice, this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. nothing in this post should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment.
submitted by ExtraEgg to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

BB. Hear me out! In-depth DD.

ORIGINAL POST BY u/whatisgf
Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bear with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up a company to this degree of depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.
Why should companies embrace BB products?
Achievements:
📷
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
📷
Certifications
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
📷📷Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?
What Products are offered by BB?
I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/
How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?
The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).
How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?
Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies that aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.
How is BB coping up during the COVID?
The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.
What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?
The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.
How was the Customers growth among BB products?
QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it to grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS. The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is a collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sectors.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:
BB Revenue:
2021 Fiscal year
📷
2021 Fiscal year Revenue
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
📷
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
📷
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013:
📷
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.
Pricing for BB products
QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using.
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
📷
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 15 2023 calls. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heights. Cheers to everyone!!

ORIGINAL POST BY u/whatisgf

submitted by MrBoom1946 to trakstocks [link] [comments]

Starting to invest as an expat, but periodically changing country of residence

I've been looking to start investing, but I have a handful of bureaucracy-related uncertainties that are keeping me from doing so. I hope my questions are not too silly (or so open-ended that they break rule 1 of the subreddit, or so diverse that they would have been better suited as separate posts) but ultimately, I'm hoping to understand what matters and what doesn't, and who to talk to to get started, with some reassurance that there's nothing that can go wrong despite my best efforts.
The sticking point for me seems to be that I plan to keep on changing my country of residence every few years, either to pursue career opportunities, or to enjoy a change of scenery. While I can spend time googling and reading on tax and legal matters, I could never know for sure if I've found and considered all information.
I'm 28, I have Romanian citizenship, spent the last 6 years studying and working in France, then very recently moved to the UK. Over the next 5-10 years it's quite likely that I will move again at least once or twice (somewhere within the EEA, Canada, US, or some other English-speaking country). My biggest concern is that by just picking an arbitrary broker or day trading platform, I might enter into some legal system that will be a hassle to navigate, but I will only find this out when I try to move, after I'm already tangled with the system.
What I struggle with is finding a simple long-term solution (or a confirmation of its existence) for investing a portion of my savings and monthly income. At the moment, my ambitions don't go beyond that. I can see the advertisements for various brokers or online day trading platforms, but the ads are broadcast to residents of each country, and I couldn't confirm that, were I to start trading with them today, I wouldn't be on the hook later to transfer my portfolio or declare my taxes properly. Also, if those legal steps are unavoidable, I don't know how much of a hassle they would be, and what costs would they add to the bottom line of my future relocation costs.
MY GOALS:
WHAT I WAS ABLE TO FIND, BUT MIGHT BE WRONG ABOUT:
MY QUESTIONS:
  1. Is there a broker that could minimize the hassle associated with changing country of residence? Could someone give me concrete examples of such brokers that I could go to right now?
  2. Does my portfolio reside with the broker, or with each exchange where I have bought and sold stocks (in which case, the broker is simply acting on my behalf to carry out the transactions)?
  3. If there is no such thing as an international broker, and I need to deal with the possibility of switching brokers upon changing countries, what would this entail? (e.g. Is it something that requires a lot of attention? Is it a complicated bureaucratic process for the brokers? Does this process cost much? Does it involve selling and buying back stocks? Is it a taxable event? Could some aspect of the portfolio be subject to double-taxation?)
  4. If I only buy and hold shares long term in index funds (possibly also reinvesting dividends), does this help with my goal of minimizing paperwork? That is, would my paperwork be the just same if I were instead buying and selling every day? (I am aware of capital gains tax, I am just not sure if the paperwork I need to declare is just the total profits in each tax year, or something more elaborate, proportional to the extent of my activity.)
  5. Since I'm starting with some savings in EUR, my first instinct would be to avoid currency exchange at this stage. I'm not entirely sure, but I am under the impression that a European exchange would deal in EUR. Is this correct? Is my loss aversion towards currency exchange unfounded?
  6. If I want to invest in S&P 500, or something like Vanguard, who should I be speaking to? Do I need a broker based in the US? If the broker's main headquarters are in the US, am I limited to working with their local branches within each country that I reside in? What would happen if I move to a country where the offering is different or they have no local branches?
  7. Are there circumstances under which my portfolio would have to be split and managed by different brokers? Should I even aim for this in order to benefit from what each broker has to offer? (e.g. one for index funds, one for day trading)
  8. Wouldn't it be a lot simpler to wire my funds into a joint bank account in Romania, controlled by me and my parents, and invest using the bank's wealth management services (thus leveraging my parent's stable residency)? This could minimize bureaucracy because I will likely also retire to Romania, but it may also limit what I can invest in, and might complicate matters when the question arises of who earned profits from capital gains, and how those should be taxed. (This might be a silly question if there's no such thing as joint ownership of an investment portfolio.)
  9. I saw that Standard Bank is offering offshore bank accounts in the Isle of Man to expats, depending on citizenship rather than residence. They also offer wealth management services. Could this be an appropriate solution for me? Or are brokers generally more efficient than banks?
I'm sure many people change their residence from time to time, and I'm hoping to find out that most of my questions are nonsense, and that there's only a small number of things to take care of in order to invest. I'm hoping to clear up as many of my misconceptions as possible, and I would be thrilled to know precisely what steps to take, and who to start talking to!
Thank you!
submitted by iencis8w36 to eupersonalfinance [link] [comments]

The book, "The Protocols Of The Learned Elders Of Zion", first published circa 120 years ago, is said to be a "fabricated antisemitic text", a "hoax", a "forgery". Recent research I have done leads me to believe that this is not the case and it is actually a genuine document. Long post!

Russian edition 1912
American english edition, 1, 2
It was declared a forgery which means there was an original document somewhere.
–Eustace Mullins
First, a link to the wikipedia page for the protocols so those interested can see how much of what you're about to read is omitted from there:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Protocols_of_the_Elders_of_Zion
The book in which they [the Protocols] are embodied was first published in the year 1897 by Philip Stepanov for private circulation among his intimate friends. The first time Professor Sergius A. Nilus published them was in 1901 in a book called The Great Within the Small and reprinted in 1905. A copy of this is in the British Museum bearing the date of its reception, August 10, 1906.
All copies that were known to exist in Russia were destroyed in the Kerensky regime, and under his successors the possession of a copy by anyone in Soviet land was a crime sufficient to ensure the owner's of being shot on sight. (source):
The best evidence of the genuineness of the Protocols is that in March, 1917 the Bolshevik Revolution took place in Russia and one of the first things done upon the Jewish Bolsheviks taking power was to destroy all copies of Professor Sergius A. Nilus’ book, The Great Within the Small, by. That book, which was first published in Tsarskoe-Tselc (Russia) in 1901, contained The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion. All copies of the Protocols that were known to exist in Russia were destroyed during the Kerensky regime. The law followed by Kerensky’s communist successors to power was that the possession of a copy of the Protocols by anyone in the Soviet Union was a crime punishable by being shot on sight
...Professor Nilus was arrested by the Cheka (Russian Secret Police) in Kiev. He was imprisoned and tortured. The Jewish president of the court, told Professor Nilus that the brutal treatment he received was as retribution for "having done them incalculable harm in publishing the Protocols."
[2011] Solving the Mystery of Babylon the Great by Edward Hendrie
The attack on the Protocols in the 1920’s proved above all else the truth of their contention; it showed that the standing organization for suppressing public discussion of the conspiracy had been perfected in the intervening 120 years . Probably so much money and energy were never before in history expended on the effort to suppress a single document.
[1956] The Controversy of Zion by Douglas Reeds
In 1865 the Jewish Rabbi RZEICHORN, made a speech in Prague. The speech was published 11 years later by Sir John Radcliff, who was assassinated shortly after its publication and it became almost extinct for years. Here are a few passages;
"With Gold one can buy the most upright consiences, with Gold one can fix the value of every stock, the price of every merchandise, one can loan it to states that afterwards one holds at ones mercy.
"Already the principle banks, the stock exchanges throughout the world, the loans to all governments are in our hands. "The other great power is the press. By ceaselessly repeating certain ideas, the press in the end makes them considered as truths. The Theatre renders similair services, every where theatre and press follow our directives. By an indefatigable campaign in favour of the democratic form of government, we will divide the Gentiles amongst themselves in political parties, we shall thus destroy the unity of their nations, we will sow the seeds of discord. Powerless they will have to accept the laws of our bank, always united, always devoted to our cause.
"The possession of land has always procured influence and power. In the name of social justice and equality, we will divide the great properties; we will give small fragments to the peasents who desire it with all their heart, But who will soon be indebted to us by the very exploitation of these properties. Our capital will enable us to be the real masters.
"Let us use all force to replace the circulation of gold by that of paper; our banks will absorb the gold, and we shall decide what then what value the paper money will have, this will make us masters of every mans existence. "We will promise to the workers salaries they have never dared to dream of, but we will also heighten the price of all necessities, so much so that our profits will be even greater.
"By our jokes and attacks we will render their priests ridiculous and eventually odius, their religion as ridiculous, as odius as their priests. We shall become the masters of their souls. But above all, let us get control of education, of the schools. By them we will spread the ideas that are useful to us, and we will mold the childrens brains as we wish".
David Icke writes, in his book "The Trigger" (2019), of the above quotes from Rabbi Rzeichhorn:
Make of that what you will because I can't prove authenticity, but
(a) you have the right to be aware of this information and
(b) there can be no doubt as we observe the world that the plans laid out in the Protocols, by the Sabbatian-Frankist Illuminati and attributed to Rabbi Reichhorn have happened or are happening.
This is so patently obvious that agents of Sabbatian-Frankism, some knowingly, some dupes, have employed the usual fall-back, fit-every-situation technique of condemning as 'antiSemitic' anyone who points this out and asks any questions about the plan described in the Protocols. I am not saying this is all a 'Jewish plot' - I am saying it's a plot by the Sabbatian-Frankist Death Cult that hates and despises Jews and Judaism as it hates and despises everyone else, and that this cult is part of the wider global satanic cult that infests every culture, race and country. On Sabbatian-Frankism I am at one with rabbis such as Marvin S. Antelman and many others.
The Protocols, whatever their origin, have been dismissed as a forgery since the articles by Irish writer Philip Graves in the London Times in 1921 which were also carried by The New York Times. Graves claimed the Protocols resembled a satire on Napoleon III by French lawyer Maurice Joly called Dialogue aux enfers entre Machiavel et Montesquieu ('Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu') published in 1864. This is where the story usually ends. The Protocols were proved to be a forgery in The Times in 1921 - move along now, nothing to see here.
There is, however, other background to consider. Phillip Graves was a captain in British Army Intelligence who worked with 'Lawrence of Arabia', another British agent, who manipulated Palestinian Arabs to drive out the Ottoman Empire and open the way for the new Israel to hijack their land. Graves' uncle was Sir Robert Windham Graves, a British Consul in Turkey and financial advisor to the Turkish government who worked for Civil Intelligence in Cairo, Egypt.
The writer of the articles in The Times was connected to British Army Intelligence and there's more. Peter Grose, a writer with the Council on Foreign Relations, revealed in his 1994 book, Gentleman Spy: The Life of Allen Dulles, that Philip Graves' 'source' for the articles was a 'Russian emigre' provided to him by ... Allen Dulles. What a coincidence. Dulles, a Council on Foreign Relations stalwart, later CIA chief and instigator of the satanic MKUltra mind control horror, 'discovered' his man while stationed at the US Embassy in post-Ottoman Turkey.
The end of the Ottoman Muslim empire (brought about by World War I) was crucial to the establishment of Israel because it included Palestine. Peter Grose said The Times extended a 'loan' to the 'emigre' on the understanding that it did not have to be paid back. An Internet commentator said of the Allen Dulles 'scoop':
This was quite an accomplishment for a young American embassy employee, to both prove the major anti-Jewish plan for world domination was a forgery as well as unilaterally keeping Lenin out of the United States so he could be transported to Russia to begin the communist revolution. Strange coincidences like this seemed to follow both Dulles brothers during their long careers in 'public service' - or should we say 'serving the Anglo-American interests headquartered in the City of London'.
Dulles and dodgy are interchangeable words and Rabbi Antelman said that the Council on Foreign Relations is America's most powerful pro-Israel lobby group and controlled by Sabbatian-Frankists.
The Times articles that trashed the Protocols were written by a British Army Intelligence operative using an unnamed source provided by the infamous liar and manipulator Allen Dulles and the source secured a loan from the newspaper he would not have to repay. Oh, nothing to question here, then. Now shut up you 'anti-Semite'!
Colin Holmes, a lecturer in economic history at the UK's Sheffield University, claimed to have identified the Dulles emigre as Michael Raslovleff, a 'self-identified anti-Semite', who gave the information to Graves because he didn't want to 'give a weapon of any kind to the Jews, whose friend I have never been'. Surely having a document circulating that was alleged to be proof of a 'Jewish plot' is what an 'anti-Semite' would want rather than seeking to trash its legitimacy? Anyway, that's some background and people will have to decide what they think.
–David Icke, "The Trigger", 2019
After reading the above from Icke I had renewed interest in the Protocols and started to do a little research.
Wikipedia is "certain" that the Protocols are a "forgery"; here is what they have to say:
Source material for the forgery consisted jointly of "Dialogue aux enfers entre Machiavel et Montesquieu" (Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu), an 1864 political satire by Maurice Joly; and a chapter from Biarritz, an 1868 novel by the antisemitic German novelist Hermann Goedsche, which had been translated into Russian in 1872.
Interestingly, however, when one looks up Herman Goedsche and his book Biarritz (again, on wikipedia), one reads:
In his 1868 book Biarritz, Goedsche plagiarized a book by the French satirist Maurice Joly, The Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu
Also "Dialogue aux enfers..." itself appears to be somewhat plagiarized:
Umberto Eco considered that Dialogue in Hell was itself plagiarised in part from a novel by Eugène Sue, Les Mystères du Peuple.
Interesting, what is going on here? But let's continue. Wikipedia says:
Identifiable phrases from Joly constitute 4% of the first half of the first edition, and 12% of the second half
[Australian researcher Peter Myer comments on the above:]
[“Cohn's (whose research the wikipedia entry makes use of) arithmetic is incorrect. The word-count of the parallel passages from the Protocols as listed by Bernstein, is 4,361, while the word-count of the Protocols is 26, 496. That is, the parallel passages comprise 16.45% of the Protocols; this is substantial, but still less than one sixth of the total.”]
So... where does the rest of the book come from?
Back to Wikipedia:
A major source for the Protocols was Der Judenstaat (1896) by Theodor Herzl, which was referred to as Zionist Protocols in its initial French and Russian editions. Paradoxically, early Russian editions of the Protocols assert that they did not come from a Zionist organization.
Stepanov is said to have published the Protocols first around the same time as Herzl's book was published. That's awfully tight timing.
Curious.
The wikipedia page makes no mention of the original Philip Stepanov publication, or Stepanov himself (big omission), but the source authors the page quotes from do. Interesting that.
Time to look into this Stepanov character.
No Wikipedia page that I can find.
The first thing I found was this:
He said that the "Protocols" was not Jewish-Masonic but a Zionist document secretly read at the Zionist Congress in Basle in 1897. (This especially is a foolish notion since an affidavit written by Philip Stepanov, the first publisher, proves that the "Protocols" was first brought to Russia two years before that Congress took place.) source
Two years before!? How can a book that heavily relies on plagiarizing from a book published in 1897, be published two years before in 1895?
I went hunting for this affidavit, and found quotes from it in another document.
A bombshell document...
...that I shall now quote from extensively (source at the end):
According to Philip Stepanov, formerly Procurator of the Moscow Synod, Chamberlain, and Privy Councillor, a copy of The Protocols was given to him in 1895 by his neighbour Maj. Alexis Sukhotin, Marshall of the town of Orel, who had been given his copy by Mlle Justine Glinka. (Sworn statement of Philip Stepanov, dated 17 April 1927).
Glinka, the daughter of a Russian general, had been in France since 1884, working for Gen. Orgevskii, secretary to the Minister of the Interior. Joseph Schorst, a Jewish member of the Mizraim Masonic Lodge in Paris, was in her employ, and offered to obtain a document which became known as The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion. Schorst later fled to Egypt where he was murdered. Returning to Russia, she gave a copy of the Protocols to Alexis Sukhotin, who showed it to Stepanov and Professor Sergius A. Nilus.
In wishing to refute the later allegation that The Protocols were formulated at the 1897 First Zionist Congress in Basle, Herman Bernstein, an early debunker of The Protocols, cites Stepanov’s sworn statement, the handwritten original being reproduced in Mrs Leslie Fry’s book Waters Flowing Eastward. Bernstein states:
"…This account of the history of the Protocols in Russia is accompanied by a facsimile affidavit made in 1927 by Philip Stepanov, one of the two friends to whom Sukhotin first showed the Protocols in Russia. Stepanov's telltale affidavit, translated from the Russian, reads as follows:
"In 1895 my neighboring estate owner in the province of Tula, retired Major Alexey Nikolayevitch Sukhotin, gave me a handwritten copy of the 'Protocols of the Wise Men of Zion.' He told me that a lady of his acquaintance (he did not mention her name), residing in Paris, had found them at the home of a friend of hers (probably of Jewish origin), and before leaving Paris, had translated them secretly, without his knowledge, and had brought one copy of that translation to Russia, and had given that copy to him, Sukhotin.
"At first I mimeographed one hundred copies of the Protocols, but that edition was difficult to read, and I resolved to have it printed somewhere, without mentioning the time, the city and the printer; I was helped in this by Arcady Ippolitovitch Kelepkovsky, who at that time was Privy Councillor with Grand Duke Sergey Alexandrovitch; he had these documents printed at the Provincial Printing Press; that was in 1897. S. A. Nilus reprinted these Protocols in full in his book, with his own commentaries.
"Philip Petrovitch Stepanov, former Procurator of the Moscow Synod Office; Chamberlain, Privy Councillor, and at the time of the publication of that edition, Chief of the district railway service of the Moscow-Kursk railway (in Orel).
"This is the signature of a member of the colony of Russian refugees at Stary and Novy Futog. "Witnessed by me, Stary Futog, April 17, 1927. "Chairman of the Administration of the Colony, "Prince Vladimir Galitzin." (Seal)
–(Herman Bernstein, The Truth About "The Protocols Of Zion": A Complete Exposure, 1971, pp. 37-40. Bernstein quotes from L. Fry's book Waters Flowing Eastward).
...there are internal indications that The Protocols date well prior to 1900-01. For e.g. a reference to "the Panama scandal" of 1888 which caused a furore in France during the 1890s. Also had The Protocols been contrived by Golovinsky ca. 1900 (see source below for more info) or at least sometime after 1896, it seems reasonable that anti-Semites would draw widely on references to Zionism, the First Zionist Congress taking place in 1897. However, there are no references to Zionism at all in The Protocols. The initial opinion of Nilus et al that The Protocols were not derived from the Zionist movement, but from a Jewish faction of Masonry, were correct.
It is particularly interesting that Cohn [historian Norman Cohn, quoted extensively in the wikipdeia entry] bases his refutation of The Protocols on the assertion that they are plagiarised from Maurice Joly’s Dialogues in Hell, and refutes the notion that The Protocols could emanate from the Alliance Israelite Universelle, yet fails to make any mention of the close association that existed between the Alliance’s Adolphe Cremieux and Joly. After all, most of the publicists for The Protocols seem to have considered the association, but Cohn, eager to nick-pick on various details, neglects refuting these most damning connections. Both Cohn and Bernstein were fully aware of Joly’s associations with Cremieux and with Masonry as stated in Mrs Fry’s book Waters Flowing Eastward (both mention the book) yet they say nothing of these associations. We must therefore assume that Mrs Fry’s assertions regarding Joly, Masonry and Cremieux are correct.
Whilst we shall shortly deal with the alleged parallels between passages of The Protocols and Joly’s work, we shall first deal with background of Joly that Cohn, Bernstein et al conspicuously avoid. Joly (1831-1878) had a family background in Masonry from his maternal grandfather. Studying law, he secured a post in he Ministry of the Interior. In 1860 he founded a newspaper, Le Palais, for lawyers and attorneys. The principal stockholders were: Jules Favre (Mason who served in the Gambetta Government, the so-called Government of National Defence, which arose after the fall of Napoleon III in 1870), Desmaret (Mason), Leblond (Mason), Adolphe Cremieux, Mason and head of the Alliance Israelite Universelle, a member of the Gambetta Government, of whom more later), Emmanuel Arago, Mason, serving with Gambetta), and Antoine Berryer (apparently the only non-Mason around Joly).
Joly’s politics were self-described as "socialist", with the need to accept "extreme means". With Cremieux he shared a hatred of Napoleon III. However what The Times, as well as subsequent critics of The Protocols do not mention is that Joly’s polemic against Napoleon III was itself predated by a similar work entitled Machiavelli, Montesquieu, Rousseau, which was written by Jacob Venedey and published in Berlin in 1850. Therefore, Joly was continuing a certain polemical line of thought rather than inventing it. If there are similarities between Joly and The Protocols, then there are also similarities with Venedey. All three for instance refer to the Hindu God Vishnu in parallel passages.
According to the expert testimony of Col. Fleischhauer at the 1935 Berne Trial, Joly was himself Jewish, his name having been originally Joseph Levy, Joly being concocted out of four letters of his true name. This testimony was said to have caused a sensation in the courtroom. When the plaintiffs produced a "baptismal certificate" to prove that Joly was not Jewish, it was dated December 1829, i.e. several years prior to Joly’s real date of birth according to his own account.
Since Venedey, a communist, takes a position antithetical to Joly, his champion being Machiavelli, we can see here a dialectical process in operation, that was brought to revolutionary perfection by Marx and the communists, and has arguably been used by the ‘Elders of Zion’. The dialectical strategy consists of promoting tension in society to achieve change. This includes the promotion of ideas and movements seemingly antithetical to ones own aims in the short term to advance long-range aims. Hence, the seemingly contradictory and self-destructive phenomenon of international bankers financing supposedly anti-capitalist revolutions to bring down traditional societies, as we shall see in due course. That the dialectical process is operative here can be inferred from the fact that Cremieux was the mentor of both Venedey and Joly. Hence the seemingly contradictory, antithetical positions of Venedey and Joly represent two sides of the programme of the ‘Learned Elder’.
Venedey (1805-1871) was a Jew who sought refuge in France, due to his revolutionary activities in Germany. He was removed from Paris by the police, but was able to return due to the intercession of Arago (whom we have seen was to become a stockholder in Joly’s newspaper) and Francois Mignet, both friends of Cremieux. Venedey was closely associated with Karl Marx and helped establish the Communist International, and was also active in the Masonic order Bauhutte.
Masonry, Illuminati & The Rite of Mizraim
Mrs Fry and other authorities on The Protocols have claimed that the documents were taken from a Lodge of the Masonic Rite of Mizraim, by one of its Jewish members, Joseph Schorst. Whilst this suggestion is of course rubbished out of hand by Cohn et al, once again the Protocols deniers remain strangely mute as to the role of both Cremieux and Joly in Mizraim.
Cremieux was a prominent member of Mizraim as well as Scottish Rite Masonry and the Grand Orient. Cremieux was a member of the Supreme Council of the Order of Mizraim. He also became Grand Master of the unified Grand Orient and Scottish Rite Masonry.
The Aegpytian Rite of Mizraim or Misraim was founded in Milan, Italy in 1805 and transferred to France in 1814. Mizraim is Hebrew for Egypt. Its origins reach back to the cabalistic magician Cagliostro, who was an initiate of the Illuminati. But the Misraim-Rite was (and still is) not accepted by Regular Freemasonry.
In 1862, another irregular rite, the Memphis Rite was introduced to the USA. On 4th June 1872, John Yarker introduced the Memphis-Rite to England. Under his jurisdiction, Memphis and Misraim came together. This unification was called The Antient and Primitive Rite of Memphis and Misraim, or Memphis-Misraim.
In 1902 Theodor Reuss, a German espionage agent, gained sanction from Yarker to install the Scottish Rite (33 degrees) and the "irregular" MM-Rites (90 and 97 degrees) in Germany. In 1917, Reuss introduced some of the Scottish Rite and MM degrees into the Ordo Templi Orientis, an occult society founded in 1906. This OTO was to be taken over by the infamous "Black Magician" and self-declared "Great Beast 666", Aleister Crowley. Crowley, a cabalist, was to write his own manifesto for a "New World Order", which he called The Book of the Law, expounding a Nietzschean doctrine of "Force and Fire" on the ruins of Christianity. Crowley saw his movement as being a continuation of the Illuminati and counted its founder Adam Weishaupt among a long list of "saints". A major difference of course is that Crowley did not have the resources and influence of Organised Jewry.
In 1870 the Rite of Mizraim was established in England under the authority of Cremieux. Bro. Little, one of those at the founding conference of Mizraim in London, on 28 December, stated:
"…Brother Cremieux, however, as a proof of his willingness to assist, sent to the meeting his diploma as a member of the French Grand College of Rites, and this diploma was placed upon the table during the proceedings, and was examined by several out of the hundred Masons present. It was also understood that Brother C.'s diploma invested him with the power to found rites or orders recognized by the Grand Orient of France (the Rite of Misraim being one)…"
The Freemason reported that a
"Supreme Council General of the 90°, had been regularly formed here 'under the authority conveyed in a diploma granted to the Illustrious Brother Cremieux, 33° of the Rite Ecossais, and a member of the Grand College of Rites in France.'"
Bernstein and Cohn rubbish any such notion of Masonic involvement in any conspiracy, including involvement in the French Revolution. This repudiation is necessary on their part, since Masonry plays a major factor in the conspiracy expounded in The Protocols. We shall consider the role of Masonry and the Illuminati in due course. Suffice it here to cite several eminent sources that can hardly be said to be anti-Semitic. Benjamin Disraeli, the Jewish Victorian era Prime Minister of Britain and intimate of the Rothschild banking dynasty, one of the mainstays of Jewish world influence, states in terms themselves reminiscent of The Protocols:
"When the secret societies, in February 1848, surprised Europe, they were themselves surprised by the unexpected opportunity, and so little capable were they of seizing the occasion, that had it not been for the Jews, who of late years unfortunately have been connecting themselves with these unhallowed associations, imbecile as were the governments the uncalled-for outbreak would not have ravaged Europe. But the fiery energy and the teeming resources of the children of Israel maintained for a long time the unnecessary and useless struggle. If the reader throws over the provisional governments of Germany, and Italy, and even of France, formed at that period, he will recognise everywhere the Jewish element. Even the insurrection, and defence, and administration of Venice, which, from the resource of statesmanlike moderation displayed, commanded almost the respect and sympathy of Europe, were accomplished by a Jew - Manini, who by the bye is a Jew who professes the whole of the Jewish religion, and believes in Calvary as well as Sinai, 'a converted Jew', as the Lombards styled him, quite forgetting, in the confusion of their ideas, that it is the Lombards who are the converts - not Manini."
Secondly we have a remarkable statement from Leon Trotsky, the Jewish revolutionary who became commander of the Red Army and with Lenin the most powerful man in the USSR:
"It was during that period that I became interested in freemasonry. ... In the eighteenth century freemasonry became expressive of a militant policy of enlightenment, as in the case of the Illuminati, who were the forerunners of the revolution; on its left it culminated in the Carbonari. Freemasons counted among their members both Louis XVI and the Dr. Guillotin who invented the guillotine. In southern Germany freemasonry assumed an openly revolutionary character, whereas at the court of Catherine the Great it was a masquerade reflecting the aristocratic and bureaucratic hierarchy. A freemason Novikov was exiled to Siberia by a freemason Empress. . I discontinued my work on freemasonry to take up the study of Marxian economics. ... The work on freemasonry acted as a sort of test for these hypotheses. ... I think this influenced the whole course of my intellectual development.".
Note that Trotsky not only refers to Masonry as a major factor in revolutionary ferment, but how it had also infiltrated the hierarchy of the old order it was about to overthrow, and that both the Illuminati and the Italian Carbonari were involved. Yet Bernstein and Cohn dismiss such sentiments when expressed by Robison et al as "fantasy". Bernstein also opines that the Illuminati were a "rival" of Masonry and did not survive its banning by the Elector of Bavaria. As we shall see, this opinion is naïve at best.
Thirdly, Bernard Lazare traces the Jewish influence on Masonry and the Illuminati, as follows:
"…It is true of course that there were Jews connected with Freemasonry from its birth, students of the Kabbala, as shown by certain rites which survive. It is very probable too that in the years preceding the French Revolution, they entered in greater numbers than ever, into the councils of the secret societies, becoming, indeed, themselves the founders of secret associations. There were Jews in the circle around Weishaupt, and a Jew of Portuguese origin, Martinez de Pasquales, established numerous groups of Illuminati in France and gathered a large number of disciples, who he instructed in the doctrines of reintegration. The lodges which Martinez founded were mystic in character, whereas the other orders of Freemasonry were, on the whole, rationalistic in their teachings. This might almost lead one to say that the secret societies gave expression in a way to the two fold nature of the Jew, on the one hand a rigid rationalism, on the other that pantheism which… often ended in a sort of Cabalistic theurgy. There would be little difficulty in showing how these two tendencies worked in harmony; how Cazotte, Cagliostro, Martinez [de Pasquales]… were practically in alliance with the Encyclopaedists and the Jacobins, succeeded in arriving at the same end, the undermining, namely, of Christianity."
The Protocols (if obtained in 1884) refer to the Panama Canal scandal years before the scandal had become public knowledge (in 1892). Therefore whoever wrote The Protocols must have had inside knowledge of high powered financial manipulation.
We have already noted that The Protocols did not originate with the Zionist movement. This was the original opinion of Nilus and others, although subsequently modified after Zionism became an influential movement among the Jews. In fact, the majority of the most prominent figures of World Jewry were opposed to Zionism, and some Orthodox Jews are still antagonistic on the basis that Israel was not to be recreated until after the advent of the King-Messiah.
The principal allegation levelled at the supposed forgers of The Protocols is that the purpose is to foment "anti-Semitism". However, the following is a remarkable passage from The Protocols in which it is said that "anti-Semitism" serves the purposes of the "Elders of Zion" in keeping the Jewish masses herded under their leadership.
As one might say today, this seems to be something of a "protection racket". The Jewish masses are being milked of millions of dollars every year to fill the coffers not only of Israel but of numerous "Jewish defence" organisations such as the Anti-Defamation League, which continually feed the Jews the line that a pogrom or a new "Holocaust" is just around the corner if Jews don’t keep donating. Here is what The Protocols say about "anti-Semitism". It is surely a strange passage if the authors are anti-Semites wishing to incite pogroms:
"Nowadays if any States raise a protest against us it is only pro forma at our discretion, and by our direction, for their antiSemitism is indispensable to us for the management of our lesser brethren. I will not enter into further explanations, for this matter has formed the subject of repeated discussions amongst us." (Prot. IX)
There is much, much more to this story; what I have quoted above are abridged excerpts.
The full document is a fascinating read and you can read it here:
The PROTOCOLS of ZION In Context By Dr. K. R. Bolton (PDF)
"But you yourselves perfectly well know that to produce the possibility of the expression of such wishes by all the nations it is indispensable to trouble in all countries the people's relations with their governments so as to utterly exhaust humanity with dissension, hatred, struggle, envy and even by the use of torture, by starvation, BY THE INOCULATION OF DISEASES, by want, so that the goyim see no other issue than to take refuge in our complete sovereignty in money and in all else. But if we give the nations of the world a breathing space the moment we long for is hardly likely ever to arrive."
Protocol 10
The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion
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To open a joint bank account you need to have a permanent UK address and be over 18. You’ll then be required to fill in an application form either online, over the phone, or in person. Did you know...? You can't take out a joint Isa account. This is because the annual, tax-free savings allowances apply to individuals. In fact, that's what the 'I' stands for. Your bank may provide all account You can compare joint bank accounts using this comparison table, which includes every bank account in the UK that can be opened in joint names. What is the best joint bank account? The best joint accounts come with offers and benefits just like normal current accounts so you may want to consider these to help find the best joint current account for you and your partner, family or friends. The Five of the best joint bank accounts - and what you need to consider before merging your finances with a partner. By Emma Gunn for Thisismoney.co.uk. Published: 02:54 EST, 7 June 2018 | Updated How to find the best joint bank account Joint bank accounts can help you manage your finances and boost savings returns. We show you how to make the most of a joint account – and avoid common pitfalls. Chiara Cavaglieri. Last updated: Nov 2020. In this article. What is a joint bank account? What you need to know about opening a joint bank account Joint bank accounts compared Best joint bank A joint bank account can be a convenient way to track your spending, whether you live with flatmates, your partner or if you’re about to start a business. But opening one is not a decision yo… A joint bank account is an account that you can share with your partner, housemates, or family. With a joint account, all account holders are entitled to make and view transactions, hold a bank card, and pay money in. Joint bank accounts are often used as an easy and transparent way to manage shared finances. For example, a couple living The Virgin Money* current account pays 2.02% on the first £1,000 in your account (there's no minimum pay-in required to get this) and comes with a linked easy-access savings account paying 0.5% AER variable – currently joint top on rate with standalone easy-access accounts (though, as with all variable rates, it's worth keeping an eye on). The bank’s joint current account, known at Santander as a Joint Checking Account, brings all the features of a regular current account (debit card, cheque book, etc.), but with access for two individuals. Additionally, if you are a parent wishing to exercise a level of control over your child’s spending, you can also apply for a Santander Youth Savings account, which places you as the Compare broadband deals Compare energy Compare car insurance quotes With a joint bank account, someone else will have access to your money. If your salary goes into the account, the other joint account holder will be able to see just how much you earn, and vice versa. The other account holder is also entitled to withdraw all of the money. But it’s not just a lack of financial privacy Apply for a current account. When you've found the best current account for you, you'll need to apply for it online, in a branch, by telephone or by post. You can also switch current accounts, closing your old account and opening a new current account in one go. Some deals even give you a cash reward for doing this. Open your current account online

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Martin Lewis: How to get the best holiday money deals ...

Lets go over (in my opinion) the BEST bank accounts out there and the specifics that make them so appealing - enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephanThe YouTub... Visit - http://first-for-loans.co.uk/uk-personal-loans-non-residents/ Uk Personal Loans For Non Residents Easy http://www.ok-loans.co.uk/non-uk-citizen-loans... Martin Lewis explains how to get the best foreign exchange and holiday money deals. Read the full travel money guide: http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/trave... Martin Lewis offers financial advice to callers. Tesco, the UK's largest retailer, is challenging Britain's big banks. The supermarket chain already offers various financial services - such as credit cards and mortgages - but has now launched ... This can be proven with a joint mortgage or tenancy agreement, utility bills that contain both names and/or a joint bank account. 5) You are fluent in the English language

best joint bank account deals uk

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