Rocket Companies (RKT) - DD on an Undervalued Gem!
This is my first DD post on any company, be gentle. Disclaimer: I am long RKT. This is not financial advice, and I am not receiving any compensation whatsoever from anyone for this post. I’m not a professional, I’m not even an amateur, this is a Wendy’s. Sources used: RKT investor relations website and company website, RKT earnings transcripts, SEC fillings, the SEC EDGAR database, sea king al pha, whalewisdom, finbox, yahoo finance, stockcharts, openinsider, Zacks, google sheets. Summary Rocket Companies (RKT) is a fintech company that operates several brands including the flagship Rocket Mortgage. I think RKT presents an opportunity to buy serious value at a cheap price, because the market has not priced in the underlying fact that RKT is a tech company akin to Square, Paypal, etc.
RKT has disrupted the lending industry and has embraced a fully digital ecosystem, which will continue to drive customer acquisition and retention in the future
RKT spends considerable money and resources on UX/UI development, client experience, and marketing. This will also help drive their continued expansion into the lending market.
The RKT “ecosystem” provides a “full cycle” solution for everything related to real estate transactions and insurance. They serve real estate professionals looking to generate leads, develop those leads, better serve their clients, and make every stage of real estate transactions smoother. From the client side, they similarly just make everything easier - it’s an app, it’s online, it’s doable from home and it’s not complicated. There’s an inherent advantage in what they’re doing here because closing on real estate transactions has always been something that’s complex, unpleasant, expensive, and not well understood. You need lawyers, you need agents, there’s a ton of paperwork, it sucks. RKT is changing all of that.
RKTs balance sheet, income, and liabilities support a stock price several times higher than the current one in my opinion.
RKT is currently stagnant in price, and the market appears to be pricing it like a traditional mortgage company, not a rapidly growing tech company (which they are).
RKT has been around for decades (skips the startup costs that will provide barrier to entry for newer companies looking to do what they’re doing), but somehow seems to still be leading the tech charge in the industry. That’s a unique and potent combination in my opinion.
RKT needs a catalyst to get the market to value it as a tech company instead of a lending company. Once that happens, and I expect it to sometime within the next year, RKT should approach an appropriate valuation such as 20x earnings. That’s an estimate I pulled out of nowhere, but is commensurate with the low end of P/E ratios for companies I see as similar to RKT.
Key Point - RKT is Priced Like a Legacy Mortgage Company The average estimate for 2020 year end revenue is $15 billion, and the yearly earnings estimate average is $3.85 per share. This estimate gives a ttm P/E ratio of just over 5.5. The sector median is something like 8-12, which makes RKT cheaply valued relative to the earnings it produces, even compared to the financial/mortgage sector. What’s key here is, I don’t think that’s really an appropriate comparison. I would place them more in line with companies like Square (ttm P/E ratio of 325x lol), PayPal (ttm P/E ratio of 69x, nice), or Fiserv (ttm P/E ratio of 24x). I used Zacks for all of these P/E ratio lookups. Let’s assume RKT is conservatively worth 15x earnings, and that it hits the estimate of $3.85 eps. That would put its fair valueright nowat $57.75 per share. I think it’s worth more than that but, we all should do well to remember that it’s really only worth whatever the market will pay for it. Key Point - Catalysts This thing needs a catalyst. Right now I am loading up. I’m buying shares, I’m selling SHORT TERM covered calls to reduce basis on those shares, but I will be stopping the sale of those covered calls within a couple weeks most likely. The Q4 earnings announcement will be on 2/25. I am not sure that the actual earnings numbers will be enough to wake this thing up, although I expect them to be good. But if that announcement comes with discussion of their focus for 2021 and beyond, and gets the market thinking about them as a tech company first and mortgage lending company second, things will start to heat up. I don’t know when the real catalyst will hit that triggers the run-up, but I think it could start with the Q4 earnings call. I am looking at $21 as the floor for this stock, and I expect the price to double within a year. I will be acquiring OTM LEAPs, expiring next spring. Supporting information and background follows. The Business RKT is in the business of providing solutions to financial transactions, including mortgage origination and refinancing, auto lending, and more. Specific subsidiaries and my simplistic view of how they interact: Home Financing
Rocket Mortgage - The mortgage company. This is a prominent “public facing” part of the Rocket ecosystem.
Amrock - Amrock provides title insurance, property valuations, and other solutions. I see this as “supporting infrastructure” to keep clients within the rocket ecosystem where they would otherwise need to go elsewhere and is part of what makes RKT a one-stop-shop.
Amrock Title Insurance (ATI) Company - basically does underwriting for Amrock. The “business end” in my simple understanding of the world.
Nexsys - provides a streamlined approach to the closing process with their Clear Sign and Clear HOI technologies - taking care of closing day authentications and sharing of homeowners insurance information.
Lendesk - Lendesk specifically provides solutions for the mortgage market in Canada
Edison Financial - Basically the “front end” of Lendesk that Canadian clients would interact with.
Home Sale and Search
Rocket Homes - Rocket Homes is a proprietary home search platform and real estate agent referral network. Basically this matches buyers, sellers, and agents, and is a key aspect of keeping clients completely working within RKT for all aspects of real estate buying/selling/financing.
For Sale By Owner - A digital marketplace designed to let clients buy and sell real estate on their own. I think it’s absolutely brilliant that RKT owns this, but more on that later.
Auto & Personal Financing
Rocket Auto - Supports rental and online car purchasing platforms.
Rocket Loans - online personal loan solutions for clients.
Media
Core Digital Media - a major advertiser in the mortgage, financial, insurance, and education sectors.
Lower My Bills - this company is basically a “portal” business model that connects people with providers of various loan and insurance products.
Services & Technology Development
Rock Connections - Basically a sales and support platform that handles appointments, prequalifications, generating leads, and data analysis among other things.
Rock Central - I will generalize this as “business support”. HR, administration, etc.
Rocket Innovation Studio - A tech incubator to gather and engage top talent and ideas.
Recent Acquisitions RKT, through Lendesk, acquired Finmo back in October of 2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-companies-subsidiary-acquires-fast-182042594.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALnvnNBoglSnmMP0O61AqgXBJokNS53LjJYuG3NvYKhayp4I6ZH2RpfmFUbSsCAU4xmnBNGMTwiEG-Ly29EabVy1-OjPIGfkYoQ3389gn3Edebs9sIwWOy1tPzqjRwOwwGA_PWg0cNzEFCe7HBTilMwADUT_y0QxWw8vizWecGcv) Finmo is a rapidly growing Canadian digital mortgage platform and this acquisition I think was perfect - it shows RKTs dedication to embracing a fully digital experience, and making sure they’re the ones leading that charge. Management I do not have much to say here, aside from this. The RKT team is not the new kids on the block, they have decades of industry experience. Also, I value leaders that make people feel valued. And on that note, under CEO Jay Farner Quicken Loans has been in the top 30 of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list for 17 consecutive years. Financials and Growth When it comes to the numbers, RKT is killing it. I don’t want to just spout a bunch of numbers that anyone can easily go look up so here’s a couple that stood out to me from the Q3 earnings announcement and related data: $4.63 billion in revenue, which is 163% YoY growth. From that revenue, they beat EPS estimates with $1.21 for the quarter vs $1.09 expected. Net income was $2.4 billion which represents a YoY growth of 365%. Closed loan volume YoY growth was 122% to $89B. Net rate lock volume was $94.7 Billion (101% growth). RKT has brought in $13.1 billion in revenue in the first 3 quarters and seems to be on track to close out Q4 with yearly revs above $15 billion. That’s awesome but what I really like is that they pair this amazing growth with $3.5B cash on hand. That’s great because I want them to be able to scale as they grow, and make acquisitions as needed (see Finmo) to ensure they can keep that growth going without getting overextended and failing to capitalize. RKTs ability to recapture clients is one of the keys to their future success in my uneducated opinion. Their recapture rate is 4.6x the industry average. The Q3 earnings transcript includes a statement by the CEO on how when interest rates fall, retention rate falls, refinance activity is larger. The high recapture rate RKT has serves as a natural hedge to their retention of existing clients because their recapture is so much higher than average in the industry. Quick aside - RKT announced a $1 billion share buyback program. They’ll be able to repurchase shares from time to time starting Nov10 2020, ending in two years. I don’t love the idea of share buybacks because I think this can be detrimental to actual business growth for the sake of shareholder value. However, with the large cash position RKT has (and it doubled from December 2019 to September 2020) I think this is a reasonable way to deploy some of that cash for now. Ok so what about valuation using DCF, free cash flow analysis, something like that? Honestly I’m not convinced this is as useful as some people make it out to be. It’s nice to know what the numbers indicate, but I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about an exact price target based on anything like this. That said, you can crunch the numbers yourself or check out something like the Finbox resources: https://finbox.com/NYSE:RKT/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr I don’t believe that fair value estimate for an instant, but it's a part of the puzzle to consider. Finbox has various models you can check out, but it’s also just a nice place to view aggregate data other than directly from the SEC filings. Product Channels RKTs direct-to-consumer channel is their main source of revenue right now, but I think they will be successful in their efforts to grow their partner channels as well. Why do I say that? Numbers don’t lie:
Adjusted Revenue for Partner Network is up 502% YTD vs 2019 ( see Q3 earnings transcript)
The partner network volume is a little over half of the direct-to-consumer volume but the growth rate is just so damn juicy. That revenue growth is hellathicc. Current Market and outlook Right now, rates are low. The average 30-yr mortgage fixed rate is 2.92% (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/mortgage-refinancing-surges-but-high-home-prices-stop-buyers.html) I cannot say how long interest rates will remain low but I believe RKT is positioned to continue to grow regardless of what rates do moving forward. They just cover so much of the space, and they do it with a focus on applied technology. Here’s some blatant speculation. I think as we move into 2021 and the vaccine becomes more prevalent, millennials will buy, sell, and borrow against real estate with renewed intensity. I think RKT is uniquely positioned to capture that market. Positions: RKT shares. Cost basis of $21.14.
Disclaimer: I am long RKT. This is not financial advice, and I am not receiving any compensation whatsoever from anyone for this post. I’m not a professional, I’m not even an amateur, this is a Wendy’s. Sources used: RKT investor relations website and company website, RKT earnings transcripts, SEC fillings, the SEC EDGAR database, sea king al pha, whalewisdom, finbox, yahoo finance, stockcharts, openinsider, Zacks, google sheets. Summary Rocket Companies (RKT) is a fintech company that operates several brands including the flagship Rocket Mortgage. I think RKT presents an opportunity to buy serious value at a cheap price, because the market has not priced in the underlying fact that RKT is a tech company akin to Square, Paypal, etc.
RKT has disrupted the lending industry and has embraced a fully digital ecosystem, which will continue to drive customer acquisition and retention in the future
RKT spends considerable money and resources on UX/UI development, client experience, and marketing. This will also help drive their continued expansion into the lending market.
The RKT “ecosystem” provides a “full cycle” solution for everything related to real estate transactions and insurance. They serve real estate professionals looking to generate leads, develop those leads, better serve their clients, and make every stage of real estate transactions smoother. From the client side, they similarly just make everything easier - it’s an app, it’s online, it’s doable from home and it’s not complicated. There’s an inherent advantage in what they’re doing here because closing on real estate transactions has always been something that’s complex, unpleasant, expensive, and not well understood. You need lawyers, you need agents, there’s a ton of paperwork, it sucks. RKT is changing all of that.
RKTs balance sheet, income, and liabilities support a stock price several times higher than the current one in my opinion.
RKT is currently stagnant in price, and the market appears to be pricing it like a traditional mortgage company, not a rapidly growing tech company (which they are).
RKT has been around for decades (skips the startup costs that will provide barrier to entry for newer companies looking to do what they’re doing), but somehow seems to still be leading the tech charge in the industry. That’s a unique and potent combination in my opinion.
RKT needs a catalyst to get the market to value it as a tech company instead of a lending company. Once that happens, and I expect it to sometime within the next year, RKT should approach an appropriate valuation such as 20x earnings. That’s an estimate I pulled out of nowhere, but is commensurate with the low end of P/E ratios for companies I see as similar to RKT.
Key Point - RKT is Priced Like a Legacy Mortgage Company The average estimate for 2020 year end revenue is $15 billion, and the yearly earnings estimate average is $3.85 per share. This estimate gives a forward-looking P/E ratio of just over 5.5. The sector median is something like 8-12, which makes RKT cheaply valued relative to the earnings it produces, even compared to the financial/mortgage sector. What’s key here is, I don’t think that’s really an appropriate comparison. I would place them more in line with companies like Square (ttm P/E ratio of 325x lol), PayPal (ttm P/E ratio of 69x, nice), or Fiserv (ttm P/E ratio of 24x). I used Zacks for all of these P/E ratio lookups. Let’s assume RKT is conservatively worth 15x earnings, and that it hits the estimate of $3.85 eps. That would put its fair valueright nowat $57.75 per share. I think it’s worth more than that but, we all should do well to remember that it’s really only worth whatever the market will pay for it. Key Point - Catalysts This thing needs a catalyst. Right now I am loading up. I’m buying shares, I’m selling SHORT TERM covered calls to reduce basis on those shares, but I will be stopping the sale of those covered calls within a couple weeks most likely. The Q4 earnings announcement will be on 2/25. I am not sure that the actual earnings numbers will be enough to wake this thing up, although I expect them to be good. But if that announcement comes with discussion of their focus for 2021 and beyond, and gets the market thinking about them as a tech company first and mortgage lending company second, things will start to heat up. I don’t know when the real catalyst will hit that triggers the run-up, but I think it could start with the Q4 earnings call. I am looking at $21 as the floor for this stock, and I expect the price to double within a year. I will be acquiring OTM LEAPs, expiring next spring. Supporting information and background follows. The Business RKT is in the business of providing solutions to financial transactions, including mortgage origination and refinancing, auto lending, and more. Specific subsidiaries and my simplistic view of how they interact: Home Financing
Rocket Mortgage - The mortgage company. This is a prominent “public facing” part of the Rocket ecosystem.
Amrock - Amrock provides title insurance, property valuations, and other solutions. I see this as “supporting infrastructure” to keep clients within the rocket ecosystem where they would otherwise need to go elsewhere and is part of what makes RKT a one-stop-shop.
Amrock Title Insurance (ATI) Company - basically does underwriting for Amrock. The “business end” in my simple understanding of the world.
Nexsys - provides a streamlined approach to the closing process with their Clear Sign and Clear HOI technologies - taking care of closing day authentications and sharing of homeowners insurance information.
Lendesk - Lendesk specifically provides solutions for the mortgage market in Canada
Edison Financial - Basically the “front end” of Lendesk that Canadian clients would interact with.
Home Sale and Search
Rocket Homes - Rocket Homes is a proprietary home search platform and real estate agent referral network. Basically this matches buyers, sellers, and agents, and is a key aspect of keeping clients completely working within RKT for all aspects of real estate buying/selling/financing.
For Sale By Owner - A digital marketplace designed to let clients buy and sell real estate on their own. I think it’s absolutely brilliant that RKT owns this, but more on that later.
Auto & Personal Financing
Rocket Auto - Supports rental and online car purchasing platforms.
Rocket Loans - online personal loan solutions for clients.
Media
Core Digital Media - a major advertiser in the mortgage, financial, insurance, and education sectors.
Lower My Bills - this company is basically a “portal” business model that connects people with providers of various loan and insurance products.
Services & Technology Development
Rock Connections - Basically a sales and support platform that handles appointments, prequalifications, generating leads, and data analysis among other things.
Rock Central - I will generalize this as “business support”. HR, administration, etc.
Rocket Innovation Studio - A tech incubator to gather and engage top talent and ideas.
Recent Acquisitions RKT, through Lendesk, acquired Finmo back in October of 2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-companies-subsidiary-acquires-fast-182042594.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALnvnNBoglSnmMP0O61AqgXBJokNS53LjJYuG3NvYKhayp4I6ZH2RpfmFUbSsCAU4xmnBNGMTwiEG-Ly29EabVy1-OjPIGfkYoQ3389gn3Edebs9sIwWOy1tPzqjRwOwwGA_PWg0cNzEFCe7HBTilMwADUT_y0QxWw8vizWecGcv) Finmo is a rapidly growing Canadian digital mortgage platform and this acquisition I think was perfect - it shows RKTs dedication to embracing a fully digital experience, and making sure they’re the ones leading that charge. Management I do not have much to say here, aside from this. The RKT team is not the new kids on the block, they have decades of industry experience. Also, I value leaders that make people feel valued. And on that note, under CEO Jay Farner Quicken Loans has been in the top 30 of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list for 17 consecutive years. Financials and Growth When it comes to the numbers, RKT is killing it. I don’t want to just spout a bunch of numbers that anyone can easily go look up so here’s a couple that stood out to me from the Q3 earnings announcement and related data: $4.63 billion in revenue, which is 163% YoY growth. From that revenue, they beat EPS estimates with $1.21 for the quarter vs $1.09 expected. Net income was $2.4 billion which represents a YoY growth of 365%. Closed loan volume YoY growth was 122% to $89B. Net rate lock volume was $94.7 Billion (101% growth). RKT has brought in $13.1 billion in revenue in the first 3 quarters and seems to be on track to close out Q4 with yearly revs above $15 billion. That’s awesome but what I really like is that they pair this amazing growth with $3.5B cash on hand. That’s great because I want them to be able to scale as they grow, and make acquisitions as needed (see Finmo) to ensure they can keep that growth going without getting overextended and failing to capitalize. RKTs ability to recapture clients is one of the keys to their future success in my uneducated opinion. Their recapture rate is 4.6x the industry average. The Q3 earnings transcript includes a statement by the CEO on how when interest rates fall, retention rate falls, refinance activity is larger. The high recapture rate RKT has serves as a natural hedge to their retention of existing clients because their recapture is so much higher than average in the industry. Quick aside - RKT announced a $1 billion share buyback program. They’ll be able to repurchase shares from time to time starting Nov10 2020, ending in two years. I don’t love the idea of share buybacks because I think this can be detrimental to actual business growth for the sake of shareholder value. However, with the large cash position RKT has (and it doubled from December 2019 to September 2020) I think this is a reasonable way to deploy some of that cash for now. Ok so what about valuation using DCF, free cash flow analysis, something like that? Honestly I’m not convinced this is as useful as some people make it out to be. It’s nice to know what the numbers indicate, but I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about an exact price target based on anything like this. That said, you can crunch the numbers yourself or check out something like the Finbox resources: https://finbox.com/NYSE:RKT/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr I don’t believe that fair value estimate for an instant, but it's a part of the puzzle to consider. Finbox has various models you can check out, but it’s also just a nice place to view aggregate data other than directly from the SEC filings. Product Channels RKTs direct-to-consumer channel is their main source of revenue right now, but I think they will be successful in their efforts to grow their partner channels as well. Why do I say that? Numbers don’t lie:
Adjusted Revenue for Partner Network is up 502% YTD vs 2019 ( see Q3 earnings transcript)
The partner network volume is a little over half of the direct-to-consumer volume but the growth rate is just so damn juicy. That revenue growth is hellathicc. Current Market and outlook Right now, rates are low. The average 30-yr mortgage fixed rate is 2.92% (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/mortgage-refinancing-surges-but-high-home-prices-stop-buyers.html) I cannot say how long interest rates will remain low but I believe RKT is positioned to continue to grow regardless of what rates do moving forward. They just cover so much of the space, and they do it with a focus on applied technology. Here’s some blatant speculation. I think as we move into 2021 and the vaccine becomes more prevalent, millennials will buy, sell, and borrow against real estate with renewed intensity. I think RKT is uniquely positioned to capture that market. Positions: RKT shares. Cost basis of $21.14.
I am 32/Canadian and had a very high paying career that had a short shelf life. During my high producing years I wanted to move out of Canada to another country where I could save as much as I could for my future because I knew my income would not last forever. "Abroad" was a weird term form me. Despite being Canadian and having lived most of my adult years in Canada I felt like everywhere was abroad for me. I was born in one of the poorest countries of Europe and lived there until I was 17 years old. The country has come a long way today but when I go back I never fit in. I definitely feel more connected with Canada than the country I was born in. I think a big reason why I focused so hard on work was to never get back to the level of poverty I grew up as a child. Think of North Korea and Venezuela in one combo. In 1997 there was a complete lock down due to civil war and my family was lucky enough to survive because we had a vegetable garden and chickens. If you left your home you could be shot/robbed or worse be killed from stepping on a mine. The city was covered in them. The other reason was that women got treated like second class citizens where I was born and my childhood was a living hell where I wasn't even allowed to walk on the street alone (even after they took out the mines), talk to members of the opposite sex or have any friends. Dating was not a concept and if they know you are "dating" you have to immediately get engaged and then married and have children or else you are a "whore". I always had a bubbly personality when I was young, I liked to act, dance, and really liked learning. I was also interested in entrepreneurship and got a full scholarship at York University to study business but to my parents a woman is not suited for business and they pushed me to study molecular biology instead. I hated my University years. I battled depression and never really saw a future for myself with biology. I ran away from home at 19 and asked my local university what help was there for someone like me that wanted to start a business. To my surprise they were very helpful and told me about grants and loans I could apply to get started. My first business was face painting and entertainment for children's birthday parties and events. I remember I got a $5000 loan and it seemed like so much money at the time. It helped me buy my first car and get started. I grew my business from just me to having 10 employees, having permanent booths in theme parks and festivals in Canada. It was hard work but I loved it. During the time I was still in university and most of my work was summeweekends so it worked out ok. I remember I was growing more and more fed up with my studies and walked out of my last exam with a smile feeling absolute freedom. I never finished my degree and I was so ok with it even if I was one exam away from graduation. I didn't care about the crazy amounts of student loans I had accumulated. All I wanted was to grow my business and make money. It gave me that thrill that sitting in a lab using a microscope never did. One day I became curious about online streaming and after having a few drinks with a friend I made an application on a popular site (at the time). The site was more like webcamming but you were allowed to do whatever you wanted on cam as long as there was no guys. I didn't think much of it because I was doing well with my other business. At the time I had a rocky relationship with an ex bf and decided maybe going online and flirting with men would make me feel better about my break up. Then saw this email about the site I had previously applied had accepted my application. I did my first stream completely clothed, having fun and chatting with people. I made $4.00 usd which was shit but I had so much fun doing it so I started researching the industry more. After a few more streams I decided this had a potential to be something big and I decided to make a business plan and focus on it entirely. I was constantly doing 10-12h on cam and loved to come up with new creative ideas to entertain people. I went from making $4.00 my first day to making just shy off a million dollars a year. The money was not the focus but being the best at what I did was. During my high earning years I knew I had to save and plan for my future. Most of the other performers would have one good month making $150,000 then disappear and not be relevant again. I don't know how I managed to last in the industry for over 8 years, but I am greatful that my hard work was combined with luck and being at the right place/right time. I moved to Mexico when I was 26 years old. My life in Mexico was great the first two years. I was dating someone that was super supportive with my work schedule. It was the honeymoon phase. We would always eat out and enjoy nice places and expensive travel. I was always frugal with everything else but vacations and experiences. Looking back my mistake was that I paid for everything and my bf at the time felt used to this cushy life that ended up expecting it. He was bad with managing money too and had a lot of debt which stupiditly I ended up paying off. During this time I had bought various income properties in central Mexico (in a retirement village) and the agreement was that since I was making more money with my online business which required long hours on cam, my ex was supposed to take care of property management. At first he was engaged then ended up not so pationate about it. I felt used and underappreciated. When I realized all this I was pregnant with our child. He told me he was unhappy living in a retirement village and wanted to move to a bigger city in Mexico. I told him we could try it out because it would offer more opportunities for our child as well. That's where things went downhill. He constantly ignored me and refused to help with chores in the house. I had a high risk pregnacy so I couldn't do much myself either. After a few months he ended up cheating and experienced a mental break down, trying to commit suicide. I was crushed. I didn't know what happened and despite my efforts to send him to get the best medical help in the country he never was the same. I really wanted to help him get back on his feet again because I thought we were a team for life. I was wrong. He ended up leaving the country one day when my son was only a few months old and has not been back in over 3 years. I have never heard back from him and I don't know if he's dead or alive. I was crushed and myself experienced a complete burn out from work/personal loss at the time. Physically I became ill too and dropped down up 42 kg. I knew I had to do something about it because I had a son to take care of. Looking back at it now it was an amazing opportunity for me to realize there was more to life than work. It helped me realize that I should have not provided everything just because I loved someone but let them provide and create on their own. If they refused I had to know they were using me as a wallet and to not get involved. RETIREMENT It's been one full year since I have been completely off work. It happened in 2020 out of all years. Before I tried to work on and off but my love for my job wasn't the same. I can say I feel much less stressed than I did years ago. My health is better and my sleep schedule is so much better than it was before. For the first time I now feel more Integrated in Mexico and I don't think I am missing out much not living in Canada. Where I live it's safe, it has a high quality of life and there's a lot of international business around. Not that I want to open a new business here but I think it's important to be surrounded by other people that have seen more of the world and are also successful. On top of that I have always felt like a hybrid of many cultures and being surrounded by people that have moved around the world means that we get to be hybrids together and they understand me better than say someone that lived in Canada/USA all their lives and never left the country. Mexico has many bad things as well but no county is perfect. Choosing the right location to live in Mexico is very important to not be affected a lot by the bad things. The pace of life is also much more calmer than in Canada and the US. This can be bad if you want to start a business here but it's a good place to be during retirement. Also people are a lot less "offended" from things and I find it's easier to make friends than it was in Canada. My general perception of Canada was that people in Canada are very helpful to strangers but much colder if you want to have a meaningful friendship. Of course there are exceptions but that was my experience. One thing I did not like about the western culture is the victim mentality that the youth of today are embracing. If they can't get something they usually blame the government for not doing enough for them. Some women blame men for "the patriarchy" and some Canadians blame foreigners because 'they took away their cheap homes and they can't afford real estate' Having lived in a real "shit hole" country where women get treated like crap I want to remind you that Canada and the US are the land of opportunities compared to most of the world. Success is not guaranteed for anyone but all the information is free in English for you to look up and use it to your advantage. You don't even have to learn a second language to access it. Being a woman or a minority gives you the same legal rights as everyone else if not more sometimes. I don't think most western feminists know what it's like to live in a muslim country. My point is: Westerners are not grateful enough for what they have. Complaining is human nature so of course it happens in Mexico but the majority know that their government won't do shit for them and they focus on what they can do as an individual. This can be bad too wich is reflected in the general sentiment Mexicans have for public property but that's another problem I won't get into. Overall i am happy where I have come in my journey. I know I haven't got it all figured out despite having a 4.5 million net worth I don't feel complete being 100% retired. I am currently building real estate in Mexico, investing in stocks and excercising to keep me busy. After things open up I will travel more but the urge to have everything figured out which I experienced immediately once I stopped working is less. Also: It's lonely at the top: I like to think of myself as an easy and approachable person, however I think having a different upbringing and dedicating and reaching high levels of financial success at a very young age, makes relating to most people not as easy. I think humans form stronger bonds when they share and solve similar problems together. That's why I lurk in this forum from time to time. It makes me realize at the end of the day I'm not alone. A lot of the questions that get asked here on a daily basis are questions that I ask myself all the time. The funny part is that no one has the answers, I don't either and the more I live the more I realize that the answers don't matter. The only realisation I have so far is: The key to being rich is living in the moment, enjoying the company of your loved ones and being greatful for what you have. Don't let your brain trick you into overthinking and stay away from the compulsion to use fatFIRE calculators all the time. Just get out for a walk instead and leave your phone at home. We could be hit by a car tomorrow and none of that shit matters as much as you think. Edit: since many have asked the country was Albania. I responded here how I ended up in Canada: https://www.reddit.com/fatFIRE/comments/lh30x8/my_expat_fatfire_journey_abroad_long/gmwn401?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
By petriefly42 This is my first DD post on any company, be gentle. Disclaimer: I am long RKT. This is not financial advice, and I am not receiving any compensation whatsoever from anyone for this post. I’m not a professional, I’m not even an amateur, this is a Wendy’s. Sources used: RKT investor relations website and company website, RKT earnings transcripts, SEC fillings, the SEC EDGAR database, sea king al pha, whalewisdom, finbox, yahoo finance, stockcharts, openinsider, Zacks, google sheets. Summary Rocket Companies (RKT) is a fintech company that operates several brands including the flagship Rocket Mortgage. I think RKT presents an opportunity to buy serious value at a cheap price, because the market has not priced in the underlying fact that RKT is a tech company akin to Square, Paypal, etc. RKT has disrupted the lending industry and has embraced a fully digital ecosystem, which will continue to drive customer acquisition and retention in the future RKT spends considerable money and resources on UX/UI development, client experience, and marketing. This will also help drive their continued expansion into the lending market. The RKT “ecosystem” provides a “full cycle” solution for everything related to real estate transactions and insurance. They serve real estate professionals looking to generate leads, develop those leads, better serve their clients, and make every stage of real estate transactions smoother. From the client side, they similarly just make everything easier - it’s an app, it’s online, it’s doable from home and it’s not complicated. There’s an inherent advantage in what they’re doing here because closing on real estate transactions has always been something that’s complex, unpleasant, expensive, and not well understood. You need lawyers, you need agents, there’s a ton of paperwork, it sucks. RKT is changing all of that. RKTs balance sheet, income, and liabilities support a stock price several times higher than the current one in my opinion. RKT is currently stagnant in price, and the market appears to be pricing it like a traditional mortgage company, not a rapidly growing tech company (which they are). RKT has been around for decades (skips the startup costs that will provide barrier to entry for newer companies looking to do what they’re doing), but somehow seems to still be leading the tech charge in the industry. That’s a unique and potent combination in my opinion. RKT needs a catalyst to get the market to value it as a tech company instead of a lending company. Once that happens, and I expect it to sometime within the next year, RKT should approach an appropriate valuation such as 20x earnings. That’s an estimate I pulled out of nowhere, but is commensurate with the low end of P/E ratios for companies I see as similar to RKT. Key Point - RKT is Priced Like a Legacy Mortgage Company The average estimate for 2020 year end revenue is $15 billion, and the yearly earnings estimate average is $3.85 per share. This estimate gives a ttm P/E ratio of just over 5.5. The sector median is something like 8-12, which makes RKT cheaply valued relative to the earnings it produces, even compared to the financial/mortgage sector. What’s key here is, I don’t think that’s really an appropriate comparison. I would place them more in line with companies like Square (ttm P/E ratio of 325x lol), PayPal (ttm P/E ratio of 69x, nice), or Fiserv (ttm P/E ratio of 24x). I used Zacks for all of these P/E ratio lookups. Let’s assume RKT is conservatively worth 15x earnings, and that it hits the estimate of $3.85 eps. That would put its fair value right now at $57.75 per share. I think it’s worth more than that but, we all should do well to remember that it’s really only worth whatever the market will pay for it. Key Point - Catalysts This thing needs a catalyst. Right now I am loading up. I’m buying shares, I’m selling SHORT TERM covered calls to reduce basis on those shares, but I will be stopping the sale of those covered calls within a couple weeks most likely. The Q4 earnings announcement will be on 2/25. I am not sure that the actual earnings numbers will be enough to wake this thing up, although I expect them to be good. But if that announcement comes with discussion of their focus for 2021 and beyond, and gets the market thinking about them as a tech company first and mortgage lending company second, things will start to heat up. I don’t know when the real catalyst will hit that triggers the run-up, but I think it could start with the Q4 earnings call. I am looking at $21 as the floor for this stock, and I expect the price to double within a year. I will be acquiring OTM LEAPs, expiring next spring. Supporting information and background follows. The Business RKT is in the business of providing solutions to financial transactions, including mortgage origination and refinancing, auto lending, and more. Specific subsidiaries and my simplistic view of how they interact: Home Financing Rocket Mortgage - The mortgage company. This is a prominent “public facing” part of the Rocket ecosystem. Amrock - Amrock provides title insurance, property valuations, and other solutions. I see this as “supporting infrastructure” to keep clients within the rocket ecosystem where they would otherwise need to go elsewhere and is part of what makes RKT a one-stop-shop. Amrock Title Insurance (ATI) Company - basically does underwriting for Amrock. The “business end” in my simple understanding of the world. Nexsys - provides a streamlined approach to the closing process with their Clear Sign and Clear HOI technologies - taking care of closing day authentications and sharing of homeowners insurance information. Lendesk - Lendesk specifically provides solutions for the mortgage market in Canada Edison Financial - Basically the “front end” of Lendesk that Canadian clients would interact with. Home Sale and Search Rocket Homes - Rocket Homes is a proprietary home search platform and real estate agent referral network. Basically this matches buyers, sellers, and agents, and is a key aspect of keeping clients completely working within RKT for all aspects of real estate buying/selling/financing. For Sale By Owner - A digital marketplace designed to let clients buy and sell real estate on their own. I think it’s absolutely brilliant that RKT owns this, but more on that later. Auto & Personal Financing Rocket Auto - Supports rental and online car purchasing platforms. Rocket Loans - online personal loan solutions for clients. Media Core Digital Media - a major advertiser in the mortgage, financial, insurance, and education sectors. Lower My Bills - this company is basically a “portal” business model that connects people with providers of various loan and insurance products. Services & Technology Development Rock Connections - Basically a sales and support platform that handles appointments, prequalifications, generating leads, and data analysis among other things. Rock Central - I will generalize this as “business support”. HR, administration, etc. Rocket Innovation Studio - A tech incubator to gather and engage top talent and ideas. Recent Acquisitions RKT, through Lendesk, acquired Finmo back in October of 2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-companies-subsidiary-acquires-fast-182042594.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALnvnNBoglSnmMP0O61AqgXBJokNS53LjJYuG3NvYKhayp4I6ZH2RpfmFUbSsCAU4xmnBNGMTwiEG-Ly29EabVy1-OjPIGfkYoQ3389gn3Edebs9sIwWOy1tPzqjRwOwwGA_PWg0cNzEFCe7HBTilMwADUT_y0QxWw8vizWecGcv) Finmo is a rapidly growing Canadian digital mortgage platform and this acquisition I think was perfect - it shows RKTs dedication to embracing a fully digital experience, and making sure they’re the ones leading that charge. Management I do not have much to say here, aside from this. The RKT team is not the new kids on the block, they have decades of industry experience. Also, I value leaders that make people feel valued. And on that note, under CEO Jay Farner Quicken Loans has been in the top 30 of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list for 17 consecutive years. Financials and Growth When it comes to the numbers, RKT is killing it. I don’t want to just spout a bunch of numbers that anyone can easily go look up so here’s a couple that stood out to me from the Q3 earnings announcement and related data: $4.63 billion in revenue, which is 163% YoY growth. From that revenue, they beat EPS estimates with $1.21 for the quarter vs $1.09 expected. Net income was $2.4 billion which represents a YoY growth of 365%. Closed loan volume YoY growth was 122% to $89B. Net rate lock volume was $94.7 Billion (101% growth). RKT has brought in $13.1 billion in revenue in the first 3 quarters and seems to be on track to close out Q4 with yearly revs above $15 billion. That’s awesome but what I really like is that they pair this amazing growth with $3.5B cash on hand. That’s great because I want them to be able to scale as they grow, and make acquisitions as needed (see Finmo) to ensure they can keep that growth going without getting overextended and failing to capitalize. RKTs ability to recapture clients is one of the keys to their future success in my uneducated opinion. Their recapture rate is 4.6x the industry average. The Q3 earnings transcript includes a statement by the CEO on how when interest rates fall, retention rate falls, refinance activity is larger. The high recapture rate RKT has serves as a natural hedge to their retention of existing clients because their recapture is so much higher than average in the industry. Quick aside - RKT announced a $1 billion share buyback program. They’ll be able to repurchase shares from time to time starting Nov10 2020, ending in two years. I don’t love the idea of share buybacks because I think this can be detrimental to actual business growth for the sake of shareholder value. However, with the large cash position RKT has (and it doubled from December 2019 to September 2020) I think this is a reasonable way to deploy some of that cash for now. Ok so what about valuation using DCF, free cash flow analysis, something like that? Honestly I’m not convinced this is as useful as some people make it out to be. It’s nice to know what the numbers indicate, but I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about an exact price target based on anything like this. That said, you can crunch the numbers yourself or check out something like the Finbox resources: https://finbox.com/NYSE:RKT/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr I don’t believe that fair value estimate for an instant, but it's a part of the puzzle to consider. Finbox has various models you can check out, but it’s also just a nice place to view aggregate data other than directly from the SEC filings. Product Channels RKTs direct-to-consumer channel is their main source of revenue right now, but I think they will be successful in their efforts to grow their partner channels as well. Why do I say that? Numbers don’t lie: Direct-to-consumer Q3 growth: 131% YoY ($53.5B closed loan volume) Partner Network growth 127% YoY ($29.6B closed volume) Adjusted Revenue for Partner Network is up 502% YTD vs 2019 ( see Q3 earnings transcript) The partner network volume is a little over half of the direct-to-consumer volume but the growth rate is just so damn juicy. That revenue growth is hellathicc. Current Market and outlook Right now, rates are low. The average 30-yr mortgage fixed rate is 2.92% (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/mortgage-refinancing-surges-but-high-home-prices-stop-buyers.html) I cannot say how long interest rates will remain low but I believe RKT is positioned to continue to grow regardless of what rates do moving forward. They just cover so much of the space, and they do it with a focus on applied technology. Here’s some blatant speculation. I think as we move into 2021 and the vaccine becomes more prevalent, millennials will buy, sell, and borrow against real estate with renewed intensity. I think RKT is uniquely positioned to capture that market. Positions: RKT shares. Cost basis of $21.14.
Mid-20s, feeling lost. Would appreciate some much needed advice.
TLDR (because this is really long)
My constraints:
24M, lower middle class, third-worlder, with a physics degree
ADHD (=> low conscientiousness, high-variance attention to detail)
have in-person, context-dependent social skills, but not enough to network aggressively
otherwise good at math, programming and word-y things
My inner desires:
achieve FIRE in a first-world country and start whichever moonshot company I want
start Astral Codex Eleven and write enough words so that GPT-N can emulate me
found a László Polgár cult
get me and my dog into a liquid nitrogen tank
Hi, ssc. I feel like I fucked up my trajectory in life by deliberately straying off the beaten path. I got Silicon Valley-pilled very early on and it didn’t work out as well as I’d hope it would. So… Anyway, so first things first:
There’s this trope that entrepreneurs make for bad employees and I feel like I played it straight here. I founded a company when I was 18 and it flopped after five years, leaving me with nothing to show for it AND also a glaring lack of employment history.
In the meantime, I spent waaay more time on extracurriculars in college than on schoolwork (physics) and that left me with a 2.4 GPA. Sure, I had trouble completing my homework and got myself diagnosed with ADHD too late, but that number is still a number and thus I’m severely limited to the kinds of places I can apply to.
Third: I was born in a developing country. The worst thing you can do in your career is to be born in a developing country, so don’t do it.
Let me explain that last point. Before COVID-19 and its rapidly multiplying cousins, I had places to be in. Got accepted into newfangled Silicon Valley fellowships, went to international hackathons, all that jazz. But I couldn’t follow through with all of them for the simple reason that the US denied me a B1 visa. Which is like, great, right? Try again, live another day, not an AI takeover-level doomsday scenario. There were other options but I had no money and there was no way in hell I could keep studying while trying to get $10 000 just to pay for lawyer fees for an O-1 which wasn’t guaranteed to work out anyway…so yeah. That was all Q1 2020. Instead, I had to become a freeloader in my mum’s metaphorical basement who’s also supporting my currently unemployed older brother. The thing is, lots of career advice out there is aimed at 20-somethings in the US. Which makes sense, because the Internet is American, but it also means a dearth of advice for people like me which a) do not fail Economics 101 (Become a nurse! Everyone and their mother became nurses 30 years ago when it was still lucrative to do so and now they’re in Canada licking syrup off maple leaves and barely conscious seniors), or b) aren’t borderline illegal. For example, since I’m not white, even if I speak English fluently it’s going to be an uphill battle for me to move to some East Asian country to teach ESL. I can’t just move to Europe too and pluck diamonds out of some newly discovered diamond mine because, well, the Schengen visa is almost as hard to get for people like me as a US visa. And it’s not like I can sell bathwater… I know the Ideal Entrepreneur isn’t supposed to be whiny, and the Ideal Rationalist doubly so, but god fucking dammit I want things! I wanna be out there doing stuff. So, okay. In the spirit of shutting up and multiplying, what’s my n-step plan then?
Step 1: Suck it up and move to Canada
Months of scouring iwantout and immigrationcanada have led me to believe that Canada and Australia are the only places in the world which are actively trying to minimise the number of pulled hairs per immigrant they get. Their immigration systems are points-based, which means you can actually plan your life around them instead of going on wild goose chases and trying to seduce people into committing immigration fraud. My reasoning goes: anything and everything I do from here on out is partly constrained by money, and partly constrained by the trustworthiness of the institutions around me. For reference, it took ~6 months for me to register my company in our version of the SEC. And that’s with lots of ‘applying grease’ and other unscrupulous-but-necessary activities which I very much would not like to do again. So the first step in my plan is to give up trying to found yet another company and get a real job. To do that, I have to tick the following boxes:
[ ] achieve ⩾B2 level in French
[ ] get 1/2/3 x 1560 hours on the clock (either through full-time employment or freelancing)
[ ] earn at least 12 960 CAD in the meantime OR somehow trick a Canadian employer to offer me a LMIA-category job
Doing all these will get me enough points to potentially be invited into the country without having to go back to school. These are pretty easy/hard depending on how much time I’m willing to allow myself to achieve them. If I hurry and make the right choices, I can probably accomplish the first two by 2022. The third ones’ tricky though, and thus we go back to the whole developing country issue again. Most local job postings offer salaries that fall within 4000-8000 USD/year, which is not nearly enough to survive on while also saving up to immigrate BUT the advantage of choosing them is I can probably get any one of them quickly with the stuff I already have in my résumé. On the other hand, most decent-paying programming jobs are restricted to US/EU timezones (I live along UTC+8) and there’s the problem of, well, I don’t really know how to apply to jobs and their job postings are much more intimidating. At least, with local jobs, I already have an idea of what to expect during interviews from conversations with my peers. I know it’s HR people who write those things and you don’t have to match all the requirements 100% to get accepted but the competition right now is fierce, right? I see people sending out 100+ résumés without getting so much as a canned response, so what are my odds being in a weird timezone AND not having several GitHub repos with 1000+ stars? If on the other hand I niche down and stalk the monthly Who is Hiring? posts on Hacker News, well, those guys are even more serious about posted requirements and are probably holding LeetCode interviews. Still, not getting a job from the Western Hemisphere is leaving a lot of money on the table so I’m thinking there’s two ways I can go about this: either a) I spend 2-3 months obsessively padding my GitHub then interviewing with EU companies, or b) I grind LeetCode for much longer and try my hand at US/Canada companies directly. Hell, if I do it right, maybe I can get transferred and not have to worry about my CRS points. A lot of people have warned me over the years that immigrating to a first-world country will probably mean I have to do some manual labor for a couple of years, and going by LMIA-category job postings the reality might not be far off. And I get that, I really do. I’m not trying to toot my own horn, but it just feels like such a waste, though. I can code my way out of a paper bag, I can teach graduate-level math to children, I can run a proper business and yet to better my living conditions I have to change toddlers’ diapers? I know dignity is one of those snooty things which people like me shouldn’t feel entitled to especially if I’m LARP-ing rationality and trying to Systematically Win, but it still sucks, y’know?
Step 2: ./financial-independence.sh, sign up for cryonics
Another sage comment I keep hearing from Canadian immigrant-would-bes is that, it’s a thankless achievement. You basically uproot your life so your children can frolick in cut grass instead of trash piles infused with rusty nails. Since this is a pseudonymous post anyway, I can be shamelessly ambitious. I want to raise the next John Stuart Mill, and this is a huge part of why I want staying in my country of origin isn’t an option. But that also means I have all sorts of soft deadlines, e.g., peak fertility, income level by said peak, my own capacity to homeschool my children, etc. that I have to meet to maximise the success of this…err…project, not to mention having my own intellectual body of work to pass on. Lots of things to do, time is so short, and I can already feel my mortal coil unwinding by the second… Another constraint my utility function has imposed on me is an otherworldly attachment to my 8-month old puppy. I would very much not like him to die, and so I would like to be in a position to take advantage of biotech advances from companies like Loyal in a couple of years AND then maybe sign us both up for cryonics down the line. I know ssc has a love-hate relationship with cryonics and cryonics-adjacent technologies but I’ve been an LW-er far longer and the anti-cryonics arguments I’ve seen have yet to shift my priors as strongly as the original discussions on that darned green website. It’s weird, actually. I used to not want to get pets, because I knew it would make things 10x harder for me (e.g., I can’t squeeze myself into six-person 3BR apartments anymore) but he was bequeathed to me and it was downright creepy how quickly my values drifted. Literally, within four days, I became so enamored with my furry friend that I had pre-mourned his probable death. In any case, by this point I should have produced a voluminous body of work in some discipline. Which is basically the same thing as saying I have no idea what to do with my life. I am clever. Or rather, I have to believe I’m clever because otherwise I have nothing else. I have no other genetic endowments. I will probably lose a sprint to a guy in a wheelchair, and my parents were dirt poor before they became not-as-poor so I don’t have a pile of gold to sit on. In a way, my insistence on naïvely thinking of life as a munchkinable game protects me from the harsh reality of not really having great odds when it comes to doing any of the things I want to do. So instead of playing statistical tennis, why not work with what I have, right?
Step 3: Do what I would have done in my 20s
There are lots of interesting people doing interesting things, and most of them can be found on Discord, Twitter, and Clubhouse. wookay that statement sort of outs me as a grifter, huh, but it's becoming clear that this is LinkedIn 2.0 especially for people in the Bay Area memespace. Savvy careerists have recently been touting cosigning-style credentialism everywhere, and discussions in these spaces tend to feel very permissive (?), high Openness to Experience (??) in a way that’s hard to pin down. What’s even better is, even though I’ve given up on migrating to the Bay, I now have access to these pockets of techno-optimism that I otherwise wouldn’t. And that’s great! Entrepreneurs get a lot of flack for many things (some fully deserved, admittedly) so it’s nice to have a place where people try their darned hardest to see the good in your ideas. If the coming Singularity somehow turns out to be underwhelming , I would very much like to start a space shipping/manufacturing company or hell join these folks who are trying to build self-replicating factories on the Moon. Barring that, I’d like to be the first to take this tech to market. I mean, I can’t be the only one seeing the trillion-dollar genital enlargement bill lying on the ground here, right? Given all this, it’s really painful for me to even consider getting a job, even if saying that sounds so…socially unacceptable? Insert CW designator here? It means I have to give up working on this promising new idea I recently had (or at least take it up as an evenings-and-weekends affair), just as I was able to finally find a cofounder [*]. I’ve always known I rolled badly so I took great pains to rebuild my environment to maximise my chances. That’s how I was able to start a company without having any capital: I found co-founders who were willing to foot the bill. Similarly, I’ve convinced my entire family to let me disentangle myself from the typical Asian path of being my parents’ retirement plan, even though culturally speaking that was a very selfish thing to do. I don’t know how I could have done things differently, to be honest. There weren’t win-win options in my case, but then again maybe I should have looked harder. One thing I would have if I was born in the average household in the US are equally palatable options. If I don’t drop out of high school and immediately move to the Bay, I would have gone to apply to the best universities in the world. Of course, there’s no telling if I’m actually going to get into any of them, but the alternative is what I have: a degree from some no-name university as my only real credential. Sure, what I learned in my uni was probably not that far off from what I would have learned in say Dartmouth (according to people I’ve asked) but if employers really cared about what people knew, we wouldn’t be in this pickle we’re in right now, would we? Barring all that, I still have so many other options to chose from. Work in a trade, own a farm, become an au pair in some cozy European country, join a commune, backpack in Southeast Asia with my powerful visa, pull a Matt Damon and audit classes, write the next Great American Novel, join the formless matrix like Gwern, work remotely in an RV, etc. Either that or I just have a very, very unrealistic view of how things work over there.
Outro
I've heard all sorts of horrible things about jobs. In fact, my mom works 16 hours a day, six days a week for ~8700 USD/year with unpaid overtime and a boss who keeps telling her she should be "thankful that she didn't lose her job during a pandemic". They even have their employees on a minute-by-minute-accurate pseudo-surveillance app where bathroom breaks are written off one's worked hours and not moving her mouse every three seconds is grounds for a being told off come performance review time. And she's supposed to be the head of her department! So I'm thinking if that's how things are, right now, and by good ol' Copernicus there's nothing special about her, then don't I have enough reason to stay away from office work forever? I will vomit my spleen out if I get into such a dystopian state. Of course, something tells me that her case is somewhat out there in terms of being y’know, healthy? And it does show. She’s been having breakdowns every other week and it’s a real worry for us that she’s going to pop a vein or two soon, if things don’t change. But yeah, even if I know intellectually that not all jobs are like hers, I can’t absorb it on a visceral level. I can’t make my inner brain follow my outer brain. So that’s why I’m here. Our monthly (Slack-free) fixed costs amount to like 720 USD/month which I’m guessing is below the US poverty line so I am sorry if I’m trying to take away your jobs. But all this remote business means that the bar shouldn’t be high for people like me, right? I just have to earn enough money to allow my mum to get a new, not-run-by-Satan-himself job and hopefully allow me to save for Canadian Express Entry. Lastly, a final complicating factor is I don’t know if I can stomach programming as a job. I love programming for programming’s sake, so I worry that unlike in my first startup where I could dictate what needs to be done, a soulless job would leave my interest a likewise soulless husk. If anything, I’m currently under the throes of the Lisp curse after having avoided the language family for so long. I feel like I'm having tunnel vision here. Surely there are more career paths than engraving technomancic runes into electrified rock? I did scour the subreddit for other career-advice threads, which seem to crop up every season (sorry!) and there are jobs like business analysis that seem to be up my alley (aside from being the CTO in my last startup, I also did a ton of market research and spun various internal processes directly from it) But then again, I am writing all this down so I’m at the point where I’m desperate enough to compromise on this. What do you think, ssc? Any glaring errors aside from this entirely incoherent mess? Alternative paths I’m not seeing? [*]: We could bootstrap a less risky SaaS company and grind towards $1000 MRR but that could take at least two years to come to fruition, if I'm being honest.
If you guys are interested in where this whole crypto thing may be headed, I believe you should not overlook SingularityNET (AGI) What is SingularityNET (AGI)? - SingularityNET is a decentralized marketplace for artificial intelligence applications. App developers earn money from the apps they upload every time they are used. - SingularityNET is a connection point for artificial intelligence applications. All AI applications on chain can interact with each other via the platform. One AI may enlist the services of many AI to achieve it's goals. A trading AI may call on price prediction AIs which may call on various AIs themselves to make their predictions. The goal is to eventually reach singularity. - SingularityNET is a gateway for computer programs and mobile phone apps. Anyone can incorporate AI operations from the SingularityNET marketplace into their programs via development tools. If your photo app needs facial recognition, you can interact with SingularityNET AI services via the interface to the marketplace. Each of these operations triggers a microtransaction via the AGI token. - SingularityNET is a point of contact for AI requests. If your company needs an AI application that has to be programmed first, programmers can be found via "Request for AI" to program the order. The payments take place in AGI tokens. - SingularityNET is a common database which any AI developer can access free of charge. The more apps that are released there, the more data is added to the marketplace, the easier it is for future developers to develop new apps. Network effect! Technical Features - Publisher Platform: Any AI app developer can publish their apps here similar to Github. They can modify, track and analyze apps via a browser interface. - Paypal gateway: The future customers have something to do with crypto, so there is the possibility to pay via Paypal, which triggers an AGI purchase in the background. The tool is already ready. - AGI Staking: It is also possible to stake AGI and generate monthly interest. But the return is modest. Phase 2 (in progress): SophiaDAO is the brain of "Sophia the robot" decentralized to the blockchain. Sophia's artificial intelligence can then be integrated by any developer in the world into their devices or robots. For example, if you want to build a car radio, you can integrate SophiaDAO via the marketplace and your radio will be able to talk to you. The more often this happens the smarter SophiaDAO becomes. Each of these voice inputs and outputs triggers a microtransaction via the AGI token. Sophia is already a lot smarter than all Alexas and Googlehomes combined. In the near future, we will have a real human-like intelligent assistance in our devices and robots. This project is in collaboration with Hanson Robotics. SingularityDAO is SingularityNET's new advanced DeFi spin off project that will soon create vast liquidity for low-cap altcoins through advanced AI auto trading, lending and yield farming across all DeFi platforms. Instead of buying a trading bot and setting it up yourself, this will give you the ability to simply invest and have an artificial intelligence do it for you. Everything will be completely transparent and controlled via smartcontracts. If this works, it will be a whole new level of decentralised finance and will dwarf anything that has gone before. Team SingularityNET was founded by Dr. Ben Goertzel and Dr. David Hanson) of Hanson Robotics. Hanson Robotics is one of the most famous companies in the robotics field world known for "Sophia the Robot". Dr. Ben Goertzel is a pioneer in artificial intelligence research. Active since the 80's and in the top list of the best AI researchers in the world. The dev team is also remarkable and so the AGI Coin always made it into the top 20 coins with the most progress on Github in the last few years. Partnerships - PingAn (The largest insurance company in the world) - The Goverment of Malta - UNESCO - CISCO And some more Market SingularityNET operates in what is predicted to be the world's largest market. Artificial intelligence is expected to add $15 trillion to the global economy in the next 10 years! There are many competitors in this market but there are currently only 3 marketplaces/developer portals of this kind. Google AI, Amazon Webservices and SingularityNET. As the trend is towards decentralization and away from censorship. This could be a great incentive for developers not to be dependent on large corporations. Conclusion: The AGI coin is a sleeping giant in my opinion. The problem in crypto is that new coins get their attention shortly after their release and then make the rounds among investors. SingularityNET had its ICO at the end of the last bullrun in 2017/18 and so the interest was gone for new coins after the crash. However, SingularityNET has delivered compared to the vast majority of other coins from that year. The marketplace and all the tools and features described above are finish. Also the first big AI experts on Youtube and blogs already report about the marketplace and give reviews. AGI was also listed for free on Binance, was recently in a report about alt-coins on NASDAQ and the project is followed by Twitter CEO Jack. There will be also a switch from Ethereum's ERC20 to Cardano to take advantage of the advanced features offered by the Cardano technology namely Hydra and the low friction treatment of tokens. But there is one small negative detail and that is. Much like Charles at Cardano, Ben and the team believe so thoroughly that the technology will speak for itself, they do not care about generating hype for the coin. That's why I've written this. I think this is an absolute juggernaut in the making. Once AI tradingDAOs are running and tokenized equities are being traded... I'm pretty excited.
Unusual Options Activity 101: Whale Watching Tips (repost of my WSB one)
My VXX 101 was shared here so I figured I’d be helpful and post my other 101 and 102s from WSB* some image links and stuff didn’t convert. I’ll clean it up later Original link: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ky9m34/unusual_options_activity_101_whale_watching_tips/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf ——————- This is long, if you’re uninterested skip to the ten tips list or TLDR A while ago I started mixing unusual options activity into my gamblinginvesting. At first I lost a shitload of money chasing dumbass whales with zero plan, but now I actually have a pretty good feel for it. I still fuck up alot, but more often I do not fuck up. This is to help those of you who want to start chasing whales, or are at a basic level and want to do it better. I'm using some plays from this week as examples because they are fresh in my mind and I have a couple screenshots. Tools I use barchart in tandem with Unusual Whales. For barchart, you can honestly get by using their free version, you just can't sort as well. They have a free month trial too. I also pay the 20 bucks for Unusual Whales to confirm what I scan, and they have a good stocks volume standard deviation tool. I have zero affiliation to either, just saying what I use. There are way more technical ways to do this, but I like to use my eyes to scan sporadically throughout the day like a boomer. *Basic Concept * Long story short, you're ideally chasing the options purchases of what are, presumably, deep-pocketed individuals or institutions. UOA identifies certain options contract orders that are higher than the average daily contract order. For example, if the average daily option volume on an GME weekly is 4,000, and an option order enters for 4,000 or higher, it's flagged as unusual activity since it's a multiple of that daily average volume--sometimes it shows as multiple orders if "they" push through a few smaller purchases that produce heavy volume. MM are sneks who like to move in silence, which they can do with with stock positions via dark pools and the like. However, they can't get away with that with options activity--it all shows. That fact, young autist, is your slingshot against the institutional goliath. *Hunting the Whale * So I've got my unusual options activity page open on barchart or wherever for the current day. I adjust the expiration date option so that the options I'm looking at don't expire past a couple weeks out (more on why later), then I'm ready to eye scan. I typically start by looking for one of two things: 1) large clusters of orders that belong to one ticker or 2) sporadic orders for a ticker that consistently show up over a couple hours, but belong to non-hot, non-meme stonks that do NOT have earnings imminent. To make sure I'm looking at something potentially weird, I choose to exclude options that expire more than a couple weeks out. *1) Clusters of orders—ABNB example * The way I scope it is kind of a tiered process. First, I'm looking to see if there are any clusters of orders that catch my eye on a quick scan. Second, I'm looking to see if those clusters of orders contain both calls AND puts, with some OTM activity and spreads preferred. Third, I look to see if the number of seperate call orders outweighs the number of put orders (or vice versa), and additionally I look to see if the volume of the calls drastically outweighs the volume of the puts (or vice versa). Why? Because it helps you determine if the options order is just a hedge, or if it’s hedging against itself as it’s own position. This is super important so try to follow along-- most UOA is just institutions hedging; Mr. MM has a nice, busy life and fancy yacht and can't just exit his positions back and forth all day like a WSBer. He also has like a billion shares of his stonks, so if he dumps it when he's got paper hands it will siginficantly tank the value and cause a ripple effect. So, instead of hedging by dumping his shit, he hedges by adding OTM options against his position--next level fucking diamond hands. That would be the type of whale order from Mr. MM we don't want to follow. But, if Mr. MM buys 4,000 FB call options in a few blocks, and you see like 1,000 in FB puts go through right alongside it, the odds are that someone is betting big on FB and using the puts as a hedge, since the puts represent a smaller volume in the call/put ratio. Instead of the options being a hedge for a bigger stock position they hold, these types of option clusters indicate that the option order itself is the big, independent play, and it's hedging itself with lower volume order vs the higher volume (4,000 calls to 1,000 puts). Then I do an easy confirmation. I check the tickers general trend the past week or so in a chart, do a news search on twitter of their ticker for news catalysts and sentiment, and google and YouTube to see if the crayola kids think it's a good nerd play. Example: Here's the screenshot on some ABNB UOA I noticed and played this week. It went to 200% and change within a couple hours, but I had unfortunate diamond hands and sold for about half that. ABNB UOA So, this a softball. First, you can see that ABNB all of a sudden explodes with all these options showing up at 12:52–that's our cluster. Second, the clusters have both calls and puts in that minute timespan, with some put orders showing at the bottom of the cluster. Some of the calls are deep OTM, as far as 200c. Third, the call orders far outweigh the put orders in both amount and volume. Awwwww shit, looks like we got more than a hedge—we’re onto something. Confirmation time: ABNB had been on a general uptrend, and I typically don't like to chase, but I combed twitter and saw their were rumors of the CEO speaking the following day, and that news had just broken of their DC booking cancellations. I looked back into the morning, and saw a few more unusual blocks, and a few more rolled in just after the cluster pictured above. Passed the smell test. Options bought, tendies gained. Sparse Orders: SNAP example The same principles can apply to orders on tickers that pop up individual orders, not large clusters, which a) haven’t had much attention b) have been on a steep downtrend—this makes the order unusual, and/or c) seem to keep popping up in single orders over a few hours to a day.The same principles as above apply, but if you see these types of orders with very little time left until expiration, you can assume assume it's probably not a hedge. SNAP isn't the best example of the week because there wasn't a put order in this block. But, there was positive TA sentiment when I searched, SNAP had been on an oversold downtrend, and I don't have screenshots left of the better ones I saw and went after. Plus, importantly, IT WAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY (this is huge, EOD is prime time for AH news whales) SNAP UOA A better example from this week though is SPCE, which had only a few orders sprinkled throughout the day, and one toward the end of the day which was DEEP, DEEP OTM expiring 1/15. *That’s a flag for us—sporadic listing throughout the day, OTM toward the end of the day. * BAM! EOD SPCE OTM calls sprinkle in, ARK invests to kick off AH, SPCE moons. Sparse Orders Patterns: Connecting the dots on tech rebound with FB and SNAP Seeing the SNAP orders above sharpened my eyes that day to looking for a pattern with tech on the whole, since big tech had been so royally gaped the past week. I kept seeing FB options like this pop up https://i.imgur.com/muVGtq2.jpg Sometimes you can put together sporadic listings and create a working theory based on a sector. Because this and similar FB orders were deep OTM and one day out, I knew there was a risk they could a hedge, but also knew that the tech sector was due for a rebound and saw SNAP posting sporadic OTM as well. So, I bought my options for each of those two another week out and closer to ATM (important, more below), to give the whale some breathing room in case was it was a hedge, even though the technicals agreed with the bounce. The whales were right, and it was an easy little overnight profit. How I’ve Fucked Up 1: Don’t get tricked by trends Although we like to believe institutions are ahead of the curve, often they are just trend-riding lemmings who follow what's already way, way up. They buy the top, just like WSB tardies such as yourself specialize in. So, when you see shit like this below, take a minute to think before you get excited: NIO UOA LIKE THIS WAS NONSTOP It was the same for all the memes: PLUG, FCEL, MARA, and RIOT all week, dominating the orders. If something is already too popular, just stay away from it. You can ride something up, but when you see massive orders on shit that's already like 400% IV, just...don't. How I’ve Fucked Up 2:*DO give the MM’s some breathing room Even if you’re confident in a move you see that is a few days out, extend your play a week or two further out minimum, and strike it closer to ATM. If you can't do either of those things because you can't afford the premium just skip that play and check back for something new later; I promise a better opportunity will arise. You can recover from bagholding, but you cannot recover from blowing your account on an incorrect 0DTE. Breathing room is also important because often whales will have the news but not the exact timing. Two months ago I followed a DDOG whale on a Thursday 1DTE that expired worthless the next day. The following Monday (1 trade day later) DDOG made the announcement that rocketed them like 20%--if I'd given them a week's breathing room, it would've been a 15 bagger. Fucking F. So, to review: look for order clusters or sporadic ticker orders that a) have a mix of calls and puts with one dominating the other b) unpopular tickers that have deep OTM or close expirations c) always check chatter afterward and fundamentals and d) try to put together a narrative of things that are related that catch your eye (this Monday's EV run or this Friday's tech bounce could be next week's airline dominance or cruiseline craze--connect the dots). Initially look for options expiring soon, as they indicate the most riskiness--and therefore confidence--if the MM is not hedging. Shop with a short term eye, buy with a long term choice. 10 Things That Will Help You Not GUH: 1) Monday and Friday morning/afternoon are the most accurate whale times, according to data from Unusual Whales 2) If you don't have PDT always save some spending power for EOD shopping 3) If you don't have PDT never, ever follow a whale with a weekly. Sometimes the news the whale bets on is a 'sell the news' event, and you won’t recover from a drop especially if there is IV crush involved. 4) Always give the whale breathing room by purchasing an expiration at least a week further out 4b) Always give the whale breathing room by going closer to ATM strikes than theirs 5) Sign up for barchart monthly trial (then continue it) and unusual whales--they're each like 20 bucks and thats way less than you spend on an FD. 6) You don't need to learn TA, but you need to check technicals on the tickers you want to chase--almost every major ticker has youtubers or fintwits giving their daily or weekly TA. This way you know if it's a proper breakout happening if the whale hits, and you're not just guessing at when to take profits. Remember, whales can buy wayyyyyyy OTM and sell for massive profit at any point--they aren’t bagholding a call until it's in the money like you are. You may be 10% up waiting for the next 80% GME day while your whale has sold at their target 5% profits on the play and is chillin. 7) Leave at least 10% of your account spending power free each day. I promise, the one time you go full boat you will see the most obvious whale play at the end of the day. Then you won't be able to do shit about it and you'll hate yourself when it's a 10 bagger overnight. Trust me. 8) Make sure the ticker you're chasing isn't just ER anticipation/bets. Always check earnings dates before buying. 9) Remember whales are people, so they can be stupid, too. Don't baghold a position that is clearly fucked for some news that looks unlikely to come. They are gambling addicts just like you, except they have more money. 10) Always take profits if you ask yourself if it's time to. If it's good enough to screenshot, it's good enough to close the position. Positions: Dumped a ton of stuff and loading up Tuesday because long weekends scare me, but saw some ineresting 2/5s I held including WKHSc PLTRc SPYc (1/19, 1/22) LMNDp And a couple tickers that I couldn’t post lol. also have AAPL and JD leaps TLDR Use a service to follow whales so you can get ahead of announcements. Look for clusters of options activity that hedge themselves via call/put ratio, and do a legitimate check for TA and catalysts to confirm their moves. Never follow a whale into a weekly, but use weeklies are your best screener. I might do a pretty consistent DD post (a couple times a week) on what I’m seeing at the end of each day if there is interest, and if it’s not a day I don’t have a ton of real work. If something quick catches my eye I usually throw it up on my twitter @yourboymilt (there’s no notification thing on here mods, just trying to be helpful— not selling anything) I’ll also probably throw some more potential Monday positions on here over the weekend once I decide to do some more research. Later.
What's up dingleberry danglers! It's ya boy, Agent00Funk, here to welcome you back to another edition of the TendieDome! That's right, its time for another wall of text for your literary entertainment, definitely not for your financial advice. By popular request, I even figured out how to add pictures. Keanu help us. If you're as illiterate as a Mississippi high school drop-out, go ahead and skip to the bottom for the TL;DR and my positions. I don't wanna hear no bitching about your lack of attention span, alright, because I will call you a slack-jawed cousin-fucker. Bet. So staple your eye shades open, Clockwork Orange style, and get ready to be blown away by how one of America's worst companies is gonna make you tendies. Those of you that have been following my DDs know that I'm not about rocket ships, I'm not gonna send you to the moon or Mars (but Uranus is in the cards). No, no, no, my sweet little summer autists, my plays are are all about steady accumulation of tendies. The goal? Acquire enough tendies so you can buy a first class ticket on whatever rocket a superior autist says is launching. Most of my plays are LONG term HOLDs, today's is a slight exception as we're looking for a Q3 or Q4 pay out. Maybe one day I'll grace you with my casino plays, but before I do that, we gotta make sure you're bringing enough dough to the paste-eating competition. And I sure as shit don't want y'all dick whistlers to blame me when the casino play doesn't pan out, so we're sticking with safe territory for now. Alright, now that I've masturbated enough and have that post-nut clarity to tell you why you should be putting money in CMCSA. That's right you little chode yodlers, muthafucking Comcast. Lots of you are probably already their customer, and have evolved to instantly wanna shit on Comcast. I don't blame you, they seriously suck, bunch of fucking assholes. But you know what sucky fucky assholes do? Make stacks on stacks on stacks. They're fucking you, AND taking your money. These guys have prostitution really figured out....you don't even know that you their ho. So, let's channel our inner Charlie, and do some Pepe Silivia deep dive due diligence. That's right, it's not just a DD like your wife's bra, we're going for the DDDD! This is us rn. Would you take financial advice from this guy? So, CMCSA....where do even start? The highway-robbery pricing (tendies)? The understaffed and overworked employees (tendies)? The geographical monopolies they hold? (tendies). The reliance on dumbfuck Boomers as a customer base (I wanna hear the choir sing it with me now:...tendies)? No, no, no....you may be retarded, but you know when you're getting fucked, and you know you pay for getting fucked anyway, just like everyone else (tendies). fr fr CMCSA basically makes money in two ways: 1.) fucking you. 2.) fucking others. But wait! There's more! They have even more ways of taking money from you and everybody else, and if your goldfish attention span can handle it, you'll see what I'm talking about. Oh and charts. I do have charts. Fuck, me and Billie Eyelash have been spending so much time in the Crayon Room together, those charts have so many colors, most of them green. Before I bust out these fucking rainbow crayons, let's cover some ground facts. For the Europoors among us, you may be shocked to find out that most Americans have NO CHOICE in who their ISP is. I know, cue the Sarah McLachlan and charity pitch, it's fucking pathetic. Free markets, my ass. But you know what that means? Tendies. That's right, Comcast has the most little fiefdoms of all the ISPs in the land. Only $T can compete, but here's the kicker: people have been ditching $T for CMCSA. Why? Because $T offers DSL in a gigabit world, that's locked inside because of a pandemic, re-discovering what made cyber sex so awkward over AIM, but now with cameras! (All the real Gs were around for that A/S/L/ convo, shit was Catfish City). So, while all you fuckwads are going to work in your Superman pajamas on Zoom, more people signed up for that sweet, sweet broadband., so they too could go to work in their Cookie Monster pajamas. (Mine are camouflaged, my co-workers don't even know I'm there, they just see square burger patties getting flipped on the griddle and are like "woooooooooooooaaah") I know you bell-end ringers don't read, but you can read a little more about subscriber increases here: (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/comcast-cmcsa-q4-2020-earnings.html) Did you notice that link? CNBC? Reputable shit, right? I know some of you motherfuckers pay CMCSA like $200/month just to watch that shit, along with 400 other channels of garbage. That's right Europoors, CMCSA isn't just an ISP with a monopoly, it's a cable TV provider with a monopoly (tendies). And you know what else? They own CNBC. Fuck, they own ALL of NBC. Now, I know, some of you more erudite ballsack gargglers already know this, but let's let the retards catch up. Because, guess what you molasses racers, CMCSA also owns Universal Studios. For the nerds in the front row, shut the fuck up, we already know you're smart. Are you seeing this shit? Like, seriously, are you piecing this shit together? CMCSA owns the pipes, CMCSA owns the shit in them, large swatches of America have no choice except CMCSA, and more people need those shitty ass pipes, because it's way fucking better than the old ass copper $T is selling. "Alright," you say, "CMCSA would've been a good pandemic play, what's the bull case looking forward?" Well tug my dick and call me Rick, that's why we're here. I can already tell this is going become a damn book of retardation, so I'm going to add some chapters. TV Subscriptions. We've got the finest stock art, just for you This is the weakest part of CMCSA, everyone is cutting the cord, they're sticking to streaming, but if you check that link above, you'll see that they actually managed to add over 400k new subscribers. Sure, some of that can be attributed to people being bored as fuck at home during the pandemic and figuring they'll get 400 channels of dog vomit to help ease their soul-crushing ennui. There aren't a lot of reasons to expect these growth figures to continue, except one, which I will get to in a bit, but I do think they'll be a bit sticky. Why? Fucking Boomers man. Boomers have this very strange addiction to channel surfing. I don't get it. They just sit there and flip through 400 channels at 10 channels/second for hours on hours on hours. They aren't even watching anything, just surfing. Don't believe me? Go ask a Boomer near you how much time they spend channel surfing and why they won't give it up. They love complaining about it too: "all these fucking channels, and nothing to watch." If you point out that they could just STREAM something they want to watch, they just go right back to surfing, because they don't actually know what they want to watch. TV may be going the way of the dinosaur, but there are still lots of dinosaurs surfing channels for now, hell, they even picked up more. How? Is it all just bored people signing up for TV during the pandemic? Maybe, but I've got another theory about geography! Internet Subscriptions Yup. So, even though people may be cutting the cord, they can't do that without internet, and...well....yeah, CMCSA may see declines from TV subscriptions, but definitely not internet subscriptions, not this year anyway. Again, I refer to the earnings report to show you jello heads the subscription numbers. I'm not going to belabor this point much, surely you know people need broadband, and CMCSA is the only game in town in many places. Geographic Monopolies in Growth Markets Awwww yiiissss gimme Park Place If you've been reading along thus far, congratulations, you'll remember that we talked about the little fiefdom monopolies these guys have across the country. So, where are those fiefdoms located? Right here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_communities_served_by_Comcast Now, I won't bust out the charts for population growth in all of these, because there is a fuck ton, but even just looking at Alabama (Roll Tide), you see that 80% of their markets in that state are growth markets, and only 1 is showing population decline.... and they're only in 6 markets there! Now, they don't hold 80% of growth markets in every state, but they hold a lot. This means that as these cities attract more people and grow, those poor saps will have no choice but to sign up for CMCSA if they want TV and/or internet. Yes, goons and goblins, CMCSA doesn't just have a captive audience, it has a captive audience in places where the audience is growing. Do I really need to spell out how these equates to tendies? Want to know something even better? Biden's infrastructure plan includes heaps of money for increasing broadband access to underserved and rural communities, communities that will then become part of CMCSA's growing fiefdoms. Streaming Trying to catch my shows fresh from the stream with my bare hands CMCSA has also launched its own streaming service, Peacock, and if you look at the CNBC link, you can see subscriber numbers for that as well. Seeing the writing on the wall, CMCSA has gotten in on making money from cord-cutters. Again, CMCSA owns the entire NBC and Universal Studios catalog, but it really doesn't matter because just like a bunch of people signed up for Disney+ just to watch The Mandalorian, a bunch of people have and will sign up for Peacock just to watch The Office. And yeah, it fucking sucks that before you could have Hulu and Netflix and not need any more streaming services, that they are Balkanizing the streaming space just like they did with cable, and now you need like 20 different apps, but go look at the Universal/NBC catalog and tell me that you wouldn't pay $5/month for access to it if you couldn't get it anywhere else. I mean shit. WWE is exclusive to Peacock...do I need to say more? Do you smell-l-l-l-l-l what The Funk is cooking? Theme Parks and the Recovery Who else re-installing RCT2? Here's a kick in the pants that you didn't expect. Universal studios. That's right, these motherfuckers got their own janky-ass wannabe Disney World. Hell, if anyone ever does open a Jurassic Park, it'll be CMCSA because they've got the rights to it and know how to run a theme park. How much do they add? About $6 billion/year (pre 2020). How much did they make in 2020? $1.8 billion. There's $4 billion set to come back into the pot. But wait, there's more! They're going to open their largest park ever this year, been building it since 2016, and the opening has been confirmed despite the Rona. Where? In Beijing, so you know the place is gonna be huge and full. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Studios_Beijing So as the vaccine gets out there, the world returns to "normal" and people go spend absurd amounts of money to slide across bits of metal, not only will missing revenue return, but CMCSA is ready to make the pot bigger. When is it opening? May. This is important because we're not looking for a pay-out until after the park has opened. If you feel more retarded after having read this far, imagine how retarded I am for having written all that linguistic linguini. So, now that we know what the bull case for CMCSA is, let's bust out those crayons and look at some charts to get the full confirmation-bias effect and look at possible entry and exit points. CRAYON ROOM TIME! I don't know if this will be mo bigga when you fumble fucks look at it, I'm too retarded to figure out formatting. I really don't know fuck about shit when it comes to numbers, but I do know the lines look pretty. So, let's run this down real fast. This is a weekly chart going back to 2018. I wanted to go that far back to show you two things. 1.) CMCSA recovered from a dip in 2018 much like it has from the COVID dip, and is on pace to match or exceed it's growth average since 2018. 2.) Annual dividend increases of around 10%. Looking at the chart, there is no reason not to expect the same announcement towards the end of the year, and in fact the next quarterly dividend has already received the increase. I've got a few other lines in there, but what I want to point out is how much the price rises above the moving price average, weather measured as a simple moving price average or within Bollinger Bands. Dips below the average tend to recover and be above the average again within 2-3 weeks. Crayons are awesome. I should invest in Crayola. Now let's look a little at demand. Again, this is a weekly chart, but this time we're mostly going to be focusing on the right side of the chart. The top chart is a Stochastic Full measurement, the two horizontal blue lines represent oversold (top) and overbought (bottom). Generally speaking, if a stock is oversold, the price goes down, people buy, and the price goes up, leading to a position of it being overbought where people sell for profit, price goes down, and rinse and repeat. The squiggly lines are the two measurements of where the stock is in relation to being oversold or overbought. So what is it showing us? That the stock was recently oversold, and is heading towards being overbought. Best time to get in would've been 2 weeks ago, but try posting a DD on WSB back then that wasn't about the holy trinity cult. So what does this mean? Well, buying now could lead to a little rise followed by a little dip as it fluctuates between oversold and overbought. The second graphs is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) this chart essentially measures sentiment, if it's up, it's bullish, if it's down, its bearish. I know some of you eggheads will correct me with finer points, but I don't have time to write a textbook that I'm incapable of understanding. As you can see, it has leveled off, which makes me believe it will dip, this also corresponds to it's movements in the Stochastic measurements. So don't buy at open, watch it for a bit, it might dip. The third graph...I have no fucking clue y'all. It had the word "projection" in it, and the line is pointing up, and that was good enough for me. Timing and Prices If you can get in for under $50, do it. I'm not sure if it will dip that low again soon, but it's within possibility. Calls aren't terribly priced, they're not the value they were 2 weeks ago when I first wanted to write this, but they're still a good value, especially for July and beyond, which is the timeframe we're looking at for an exit. Or not. I mean, you could sit on this shit forever and not really have to worry, which is another thing I like about it. But I have calls for July and October and may even pick up the 2022 LEAPs. We're looking for two events to provide a nice pop for our exits; the new park opening and Q3 earnings report that should include initial earnings from the parks, both new and re-opened. We want to see if the customers are going back to the parks, and returning that missing money into the pot, and we want to see how growth of broadband customers has increased. But again, don't sweat too much about timing and prices, this thing just keeps marching upwards. Positions CMCSA Shares CMCSA 16 July $50c CMCSA 15 Oct $52.5c Tl;dr CMCSA. No rockets, but good value. 7/10 Would buy again. DISCLAIMER: I don't know what I'm doing, you listen to me at your own peril, please leave me alone SEC.
My family started in a trailer in a poor part of my city. First my parents had my sister, and then me a year later. My parents never married, but they tried to make it work for me and my sister's sake. They made it into an apartment, and then eventually worked their way into beginning to pay on the house my mom still lives in today. Up until I was about 10 years old, my father and mom stayed together in this house, and it was the definition of hell. Screaming/fights almost every day. Sometimes my dad would start it, sometimes my mom would, sometimes me or my sister. My dad has thrown me across the room, slapped and punched my mom multiple times, (my mom is 5'2', my dad is 6'3'). He has issues, some from his own father dying while he was young, some from using/selling coke and weed and drinking. My mom told me when I was young (maybe 7-8 years old) she was raped by two men in her home state of Oklahoma, and I don't think I really processed it well as a kid. Her dad also died while she was young, he fell to his death on a construction site. Me and my sister both have mental health issues nowadays, but she did make it through four years of college, which is more than either of my parents or me did. I personally have really bad anger issues and anxiety, PTSD from close range shoot outs and robberies. I struggle daily with depression and suicidal thoughts almost every day. I sold weed at a pretty decent level for a long time, 6-7 years. I started around 16 when I realized my parents didn't really have the money they were giving me for my weed/drug habit. 20 or so dollars every day was adding up and they would tell me. My mom was a manager at a Texas roadhouse around when I was 8-9-ish years old, and she ended up getting in between two drunk guys that were in a bar fight and she got punched in her neck. She ended up getting a $50,000ish settlement, but had to have multiple surgeries and will pretty much always be in pain and will always have metal in her neck to the point where she can feel it when its raining outside. My mom has never been great with finances, so that money after bills went by very fast. She did use probably 20-30 grand of it on a new truck. An brand new F-150. Remember she's 5'2" lol. That was definitely a mistake, and I think she knows it, but I've never been good with money either. My father has always been broke, to the point where he would ask my mother for money for his own weed and bills. I'm not sure where my dad lives now, last I heard it was in the mountains in North Carolina. He left the house when I was around 10 like I mentioned earlier. He went to his moms house for a while and then moved out. His mom took care of us a lot of nights that they couldn't because of work or other things. She's the sweetest most Christian grandmother you could imagine. She had four kids, and then as I mentioned her husband (my dads dad) died of a heart attack while they were all still young. I can't imagine the pain, I'm sure it messed my dad up pretty bad. I think these things are important to understand though, because they help me see why they were always so mad and upset always. So in comes when it started getting hard. I had almost no friends in elementary school, I remember getting a "red card" in maybe second grade for punching a kid in the back, yes the back, lol. Because he was literally just talking to a girl I had a crush on. I never really talked to girls then, I would just decide I had a crush on them. In second grade. Lol. He didn't even hit me back, he was kind of just like "What the fuck?" And then I just walked away until a teacher came up to me that's all I remember. I've always been a kind of small and skinny dude, and I especially was back then. In middle school I started making some friends but I was always annoying them because I was always asking to hang out and to come over to their houses. I remember my bus route used to go through the nicest neighborhoods on my side of the city, I'm talking retired NFL player nice. they make my moms house look like a shack, and I don't know if I realized it back then, but it was making me jealous. The friends I ended up making in middle school were not very healthy friends, we were always the loud and obnoxious ones. I got into a lot of trouble starting around this time, 7th grade. I spent almost half of my 7th grade year in In School Suspension, just staring at wall while "doing" class work. It was also this year toward the end of the year that I got into my first real fight. I was always outspoken, and so was this other guy, but he lived in a super nice house and was from a rich ass family. We had a social studies class together, and one day, I'm not even sure how it started, he started making jokes about my mother working at chick fil a. She got that job after her neck was healed up just enough to get a job. She had to get a job, as she was my house's income. She loved and still loves that job, she's a manager now. But back then and how he made fun of her in front of my whole class while my teacher just didn't do anything about it, I was just so mad. So I told him I was going to beat his ass and after class (and more trolling me) we met next to the side of the school and a huge crowd gathered to watch. A lot of people, not the whole school, but most of my grade, because we all exited the same door if you rode on the bus. I threw the first punch, missed, he grabbed my neck and slammed my head into the brick wall, I tried to throw another punch, missed, and I just yelled "stop making fun of my mom" grabbed my backpack and got on the bus, Just cried the whole way home, my sister on the bus was just wondering what happened. I've never been good at explaining my thoughts or feelings to people, so most people think I'm even more dumb than I actually am. I didn't tell my family about that fight for years, even though my sister did. I just will never forget it. I even tried to tell people that I didn't lose that fight even though everyone heard about it. I just couldn't come to terms with it. 8th grade I don't have many memories of. I was a goofball, and my grades were really slipping now, even worse than the year before. Most people just saw me as that weird kid who got his ass beat. I think around this time I started to get very, very cynical with my worldview and my attitude. I was always on the internet when I could be, playing shitty games on our homes only computer; a dell desktop, and reading stupid conspiracy theories. Later I would start gaming pretty hard, and I loved watching streams all the way back to the justin.tv days. My dad had a PlayStation 1, and I loved watching him play Call of Duty. It might be my only good memory with my dad, honestly, and he never got to play a lot. The internet and my cynical world view pushed me away from religion, even though my family was heavily Christian. Even before this though, I hated going to church. From a young kid onward every single Sunday was a screaming match between me and my mom about not wanting to go to church. Sometimes she would end up getting me to go, but that was less and less, and before even middle school I just stopped going completely. So in between middle and high-school I started smoking weed, it made me some new friends and got me into hanging out at a park near my moms house. This park would end up being where I spent most of my next 6-7 or so years. Most people knew it was a druggie park, would call us all "park rats" and make fun of us for wasting our time and money doing drugs. But I gained more memories here than I could ever write down, I probably could make a book out of those memories. There were all ages of people there, some young as me, some mid 30s-40s, a lot of weed smoking teens, a lot of acid tripping hippies, some Xanax/oxy fiends, and even some meth and heroine people. Most days it was just normal people getting fucked up to enjoy their time, but there was always plenty of drama. This park was known not just on my side of town but through the whole city. its kind of tucked away in woods, sits on a lake, and has a small disc-golf course, so you'd even have a bunch of random (probably) sober people show up to play some days, but they usually stayed on their course and away from us, minus a few of them. I started selling weed when my mom started telling me no to my almost daily asks of 20 dollars. I look back and realize she just didn't have the money to support my habits, and I understand now. But once I started selling weed, I realized I could start eating when I was hungry, I realized I could get and smoke weed almost whenever I wanted to. Being at the park always made it easier to sell it too, because people knew to come there to find some weed. I met a LOT of people selling, and I mean a LOT. I started moving up to QP's (quarter pounds) on the front (pay back later) and always found myself 100-200 short on my re-ups, usually just from smoking too much and cutting too many people deals, Like I said never been good with money. Then the serious shit started happening. I was maybe 17-18 when I was at my weed guy's small apartment downtown one day. I always liked going over there, not only because I knew we'd be smoking a lot, but because me and my plug were close, I looked up to him, and we had a decently similar shitty upbringing. One day, I get a call to come chill downtown at his apartment, even had two of our friends come pick me up from the park and bring me there. Took fat dabs on the way (THC oil/wax) and when I got there he surprised us with sheets of Gel-Tabbed Acid. Strong shit. I took my usual 2 doses, I was known for tripping a lot back then, haven't tripped since this day. It was going to be a "No Traffic" day, meaning no sales in his apartment so we could just smoke and enjoy our time. His girlfriend at the time had arranged a deal between him and 3 people he did not know. A young (17 at the time) girl, a mid twenties white dude, and a mid twenties black dude. What we didn't know until after this, was they had set this up, and once inside (mind you we were tripping pretty hard at this point), the white dude and the black dude pulled a gun on my plug and my plug instantly pulled his and fired back and 20-30 shell casings later everyone ran to get out. This was a very small apartment. I mean very very small, 7 or so people all feet away from each other. I was literally sitting on the floor because there weren't enough chairs for everyone, even before the 3 robbers came in. I ducked behind the chair I was sitting next to. One of the people that drove me there got shot twice, once in the thigh and one through the side of his asscheek, no joke. The white guy who was robbing us took at least one to the chest, and was also crushed underneath us all as we all ran out and flooded the small staircase down, I could not describe to you how twisted and contorted his body was, and I had no doubt he was dead. I ran to find my plug, I'm not sure why, but I saw somehow he had made it all the way to the other side of the street already, and was on the ground. I ran up to him, not wanting to touch him, and told him an ambulance is coming and not to worry, he was laying there bleeding out of his mouth and chest with what I later found out were SEVEN BULLETS IN HIS CHEST. I watched him die, or so I thought. I yelled for someone to call an ambulance and when I saw some random student walking past was doing that I ran away and back to the two friends who had drove me there. They were freaking out, it was a dude and a girl, they were a couple at the time. The dude had just gotten shot two times. His girlfriend needed me to go back in and grab her purse and phone that were left in the chaos, I said no at first, but she begged me so I ran back to the staircase and over the white guy on the stairs who had robbed us, I definitely thought he was dead the way his body looked. I went back up the stairs and into the apartment and grabbed the phone and purse and all I could see was blood and holes everywhere, it was disgusting, and it makes me tear up while I type this. I got back into the car and they drove to the nearby hospital (The guy that got hit twice actually drove, believe it or not) and I got out of the car right before they pulled into the hospital. I'm 23, and besides these last two years, I have been on probation/in legal trouble my whole life. When I was a juvenile, I was on Show-Cap probation, where a cop would most nights come check and make sure I was at home. A cop would wake my whole household up at anywhere from 10PM - 2AM just to make me show him a card I had and then would leave, almost every night. During the shooting I was talking about, I was on Show-Cap probation. That's why I got out of the car at the hospital. I wasn't supposed to be around certain people or things like guns, legally. I got out of my friends car and walked (still tripping balls) to a McDonalds a few blocks away, sat down, and called a friend, crying the whole time, and I just remember seeing black around the edges of my vision, like I was either dying or falling into a like dark area of some kind, definitely losing it to the drugs at this point. I got picked up and drove back to my moms house, I told the car full of people I was with what had happened and they couldn't offer much aside from positive words but I will never forget at least they came and got my ass quick. That was some real friend shit. I cried and cried the whole way back to my moms, got dropped off, and like clockwork a few minutes later my mom got home. I told her something had happened (but not the whole story yet) and I felt like I was going to be in a lot of trouble. About 30 minutes later, maybe in total 1-2 hours after the shooting, a black SUV pulled up to my moms house. I had to go downtown, I will say my mom even made me one of the Sur-gel drinks I had been using to pass drug tests to drink during the car ride there. They weren't even trying to drug test me, I didn't ask her to, she was just that cool I guess. I rode an elevator up a huge building and they sat me down with two cops who were pretty convinced this was my doing in some way. They kept asking me why I had been talking to my plug that day and when I said I hadn't, they pulled up my phone logs and texts. So they not only knew about my outstanding legal issues, they also knew I was lying. I really was just lying because I thought just being there was going to violate my probation. They had me on camera every single step from leaving the car at the hospital to walking into the McDonalds. They really wanted to blame me, they even told me my friend (my plug) was dead and it made me cry and cry and cry and cry. In the end, they couldn't hold me there. They forced me to point at a picture line up of people but I told them over and over I didn't know what they looked like and that you shouldn't use what I say because I just didn't know. Whole time during all of this 3-4 hour interrogation, they yelled and screamed at me and at one point left me in the room for maybe 2 hours while I just cried and cried. They were probably just watching what I would do when alone. I was still tripping acid, hard, and just felt like death was all around me. All I could do was cry. Like I said, they released me to my mother. They obviously had no evidence against me, but one thing that they asked me during the investigation was why was my plugs girlfriend outside talking to the 3 robbers (juvenile girl, white guy, black guy, the juvenile girl ended up getting some lesser felonies but she didn't have a gun or shoot anyone, she just tried to block the exit at first). That was enough for me to put together that she was behind this, set him up to have him robbed. She probably just expected my plug to just give up his shit without a fight, but no, no he would never just do that. Obviously this whole situation fucked me up pretty bad mentally. For weeks I thought my plug was dead. Until one day he literally just called me out of the blue. Told me to come see him at his moms house. I'm telling you, this was my brother. Got in my car and went to go see him. When I got there I tried to hug him but he said he couldn't hug anyone, he lifted up his shirt and it was like a Frankenstein stitching all across his whole chest. If I recall it was 8 bullets that hit him in total. He had to use crutches and a wheelchair to move around the little bit he could. He only has one lung now, and will never move the same. It was a miracle, but no one died during that shooting, not even the white guy robber, who was shot in the chest and trampled over on the staircase. The white guy (I keep saying white guy and black guy just because I'm not trying to give out names, I hate all people equally) ended up pleading guilty and sentenced to 30 something years in jail. The black-guy robber took it to trial and WON. No fingerprints on his taped up shitty little .22 caliber pistol. Jury found him not guilty, and he is a free man to this day. Plug's girlfriend that set it up was never even charged as an accessory, but she did violate her adult probation by being there. As if that's all she deserved. This is a true story, google Fort Sanders shooting, It'll come up. The only reason my name wasn't in the articles was because I was 17 years old at the time. Not even an adult yet. They subpoena'd me after the shooting to make sure I'd show up to court or to trial. It wasn't until 4-5 years later the black-guy robber had his trial. By this time I had moved up a lot in the selling game, my plug (same plug) had moved out to the west coast to step up his game as well. Had my own house I was renting in my hometown, Knoxville, TN. Nice car, shitty (but real) diamond ring, bunch of shoes and clothes, 2 shitty cars. Tons of memories, good times and bad, important memories in between then and the trial. I've had a lot of friends die that I went to school/smoked with, especially when Fentanyl started coming around. From what I've heard that's a problem a lot of people share, fuck Fentanyl. I have done most drugs, but luckily I was just smart enough to stay away from shit like heroine and meth. (not to say Knoxville powder wasn't dirty, because it was) I just really liked weed, it has always calmed down my bad emotions from my childhood and from the events I've been through, I don't get to smoke a lot anymore, mostly because I am poor again now. Its still Illegal as fuck in my state too, but that's another story. I declined to testify at the trial of the black guy robber, and they never asked me to testify at the white guys trial because he didn't have one, he plead guilty. I decided not to testify because of multiple reasons, one- I hate cops, and law enforcement. I understand some are actually decent people. But go through a day in jail without food, because they CO thinks you're lying about not getting a tray, and ask me how you feel about cops after. Go through getting kicked out of your high school during your SENIOR YEAR because someone told some teacher you had weed in your car. I got pulled out of class by cops and arrested, and my car wasn't even on school grounds. Cops used to roll through the park I grew up in and would get out and do pat downs on whoever couldn't run away in time. These things and many more have made me hate cops, and yes, I still to this day hate cops. Is me not testifying the reason one of the robbers walked free? Maybe. But I certainly had no new information to tell the jury they didn't already know. Especially if the no fingerprints on the weapon they recovered was the reason they acquitted him. Who knows, maybe me going in there and crying like a bitch or something would've made it the jury see the truth. Either way it does weigh heavy on my heart but even my plug didn't blame me for not testifying. During and before and after the trial, me and my plug were still at work. This is when I had moved into my house I rented, after living in a shitty apartment. I fully furnished it and everything. Washer, dryer, Ps4, Xbox 1, queen sized bed, the works. Even the little shower floor mat, I loved that home. Fast forward to early covid 2020, my plug was starting to get annoyed with me. I was always asking him about the next pack coming in, always wanting as much of it as he could get to me, and I was always on him about the quality of it, even though it was always above average and most of the time it was top shelf. He ran into some legal trouble driving through Texas, that and along with a few other things happening in his personal life, work for me started slowing down. I never was good at saving money, I knew I should, I'd always beat myself up for not having money when I needed it, but I just never could change my spending habits. I'm still not sold on the whole "trying to be something you're not" argument because I've never had to fake anything. Most of the people I was around have heard from others what I've been through. At one point people were driving 2-3 hours just to pick up from me. I've been robbed plenty of times and I've robbed others. One things for sure, if karma is real, then I've definitely paid my dues. I haven't been selling now or have been in any legal trouble for the longest stretch of time since I started it all almost 8 years ago. And yes, I am proud of that. Almost all of the friends I've ever had have either robbed me or wronged me in some way, or I've cut contact for my own issues or reasons. As of today, I have one friend that lives in Ireland, and he's a great friend, but he's got his own life to live. I got evicted for giving a bad check to my landlord, 3 weeks before they did the eviction halting for covid, which is still active today. Unlucky for sure, but my fault nonetheless. Finding somewhere to live has always been a challenge for me because of my lack of provable income. Today I have decent credit, a credit card, and a few thousand dollars I have invested in my Robinhood account that I seem to keep losing and gaining back. I stream on Twitch, but my last stream I just sat and cried for like 2 and a half hours, its still the latest stream on my channel. No one wants to follow me or give me a chance, which I understand, I probably could make it work if I grinded harder and harder at it, its just depressing as fuck to sit there and talk to yourself for hours at the beginning. Todays' (1/28/2021) events in the stock market made me write this. Me and my mom keep fighting and its BEEN PAST the time I move back out again. No one will lease to me. She wont even stay here until I leave, as of this last week. I'm waiting on my new debit card to get here in the mail, and whether I have somewhere to go or not, I told her I'd leave when it got here, I have been homeless a few times, lived in my car, extended stay hotels, other peoples' couches. Its hard, but I know that I can make it fine. Today I woke up and had $20,000 in my investments, up from $1,100 I started with at the beginning of January 2021. I finally felt a little bit positive about my future at least a little bit, after a very depressing Christmas and January. Then Robinhood and other brokers today cut off buying GME, AMC, and others. I was heavy into GME, having gotten in @ $69 (lol) dollars a share. It was $450+ per share this morning, after a week of mainstream media attention from every social media website, major TV news stations, and billionaires like Elon Musk, Mark Cuban, that Chamath guy (who seems awesome) and many more. Robinhood and a couple other brokers actually turned off the ability to buy the stock. Literally. All the stocks that were heavy volume "meme stocks" they cut off. I was in GME and AMC, but even Blackberry, Nokia, and others were cut off too. Needless to say, after the whole week of manufactured panic from all of these different sources, this straw broke the camels back. GME at this moment is trading @ 225, and I sold mine when I opened my app and saw it at 155, which was the lowest dip of the day. I came out in the green, I came out making a $1,500 or so dollars. But my portfolio by the time I cut AMC losses went from $20,000 this morning, down to $5,000 as I type this. I have never wanted to kill myself more than I do right now, mostly because this week it felt like I really earned this. I stayed diamond hands (held through the media pressure) through this whole week, only to give up at the end. It will hurt even more if GME recovers from this dip, but It's not because other people are making money without me, its because I could've used that money to move out, get some food to eat, get a new car that doesn't leak through the roof in case I'm living in it here in a couple days. And more importantly, I earned that money. I noticed the momentum before it even touched 40 a share. I've watch DFV's (roaring kitty on YouTube) 5-6 hour livestreams where he was going over the financials and spreadsheets of GameStop back in fucking 2019. I believed in this play and threw the money I had at it, and it should have worked out at least better than it did, I was planning to exit or at least hedge my earnings tomorrow, when shorts have to cover. But when I stepped away to eat lunch and take a shower because of how stressful this morning this morning was, I came back, opened my phone, and I was $15,000 down. So yes, my diamond hands failed. I sold. And while I still had a gain, its not at all what it should rightfully be. I can't even bitch and moan in the Wallstreetbets subreddit because apparently me being a lurker for a year isn't enough because of all of the newbies in there from all of the media attention. So to finally wrap this up, I feel like I tried my best in this life. I haven't always been a good person, but not once have I thought to myself that I was evil. I'm too nice sometimes, and its gotten me fucked over, and I'd still go back and front friends weed or give them money/weed for free because I'm just not having fun unless people around me are too. Everyone's struggling in their own ways. I do not want to live on this earth any longer. I wrote this to at least explain to everyone what happened to me. And while I left out some very important parts in my life, this should give you a summary of what was going through my mind today. I really have been a good human being these last 2 years. Maybe I'm greedy for not selling earlier today. I was just so caught up in finally "sticking it to the man" and making the best play I've ever made I didn't want to feel like they would win by making us sell. I didn't even come out in the red, but goddamn it feels like I lost everything. I don't want you to feel sorry for me, just learn from my mistakes and take care of yourselves. You have to be stronger emotionally than I was. Move out of the U.S. if you can, its just greed and money that rule here. Maybe nowadays that's just everywhere. Thank you to anyone that for some reason read all of this. To my dead friends Tad, Pmoney, Cierra, Raegan, Tina, I miss you guys and you better have a blunt for me when I see you all soon, I could really fucking use one about now. Much Love, - Bleezy
I'm in my late twenties and make $60,000 working as an architect in the northwestern US. Join me for a week in quarantine!
I am in my late twenties and make $60,000 working as an architect in the northwestern US. Not sharing exact details since the industry is a small world and I’d like to share candidly! I should also add that I mention my budgeting software a few times in this post - I’m not sponsored by them, I’m just a little obsessed with budgeting. INTRO QUESTIONS Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If yes, how did you pay for it? Absolutely. My parents both had to be on their own at a very young age, so they were focused on making sure I had solid footing for financial independence. College was a big part of that plan. (You can absolutely build a great career without a college education - this was just my parents' perspective.) Obviously you can no longer pay tuition by scooping ice cream during the summer like they did, but they were very against the idea of loans (to put it lightly) so I wouldn’t have been able to afford 90% of the schools I was accepted to. As a teenager that really bummed me out since I wanted to move away! I ended up going to an in-state university where my tuition was funded via a combo of scholarships from the school, my parents' college savings and state government scholarships. My parents paid my rent for the years I had to live off campus (I remember thinking $400 a month rent was so expensive.....lol) and I funded my spending money with a few different part time jobs, working two or three at any given time. Some of those jobs were at the university and related to my degree so it was good practical experience too! Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have about money? Did your parent/guardian(s) educate you about finances? My parents told me things but didn't necessarily explain in detail how everything worked. In hindsight I wish I'd started using something like YNAB much younger so I could understand the impact and potential of my money (whether I saved it or spent it). My parents talked a lot about avoiding consumer debt and warned me about interest as well as depreciation when it came to buying a car brand new or something like that. When I was a young adult they got me Bogle's book which was a good foundation for my knowledge about investing. Did you worry about money growing up? I wasn’t worried as much as I was confused. My parents’ advice and influence seemed so opposite of what I saw happening around me. For instance, they are generally against debt of any kind, whereas excessive spending and living on credit seemed to be the status quo for everyone else I knew. They invest money into their hobbies but don't buy flashy cars or new phones or anything like that, even now that they are empty nesters making good money. There was also a gradual shift where I realized that when I grew up I wasn't going to be making as much money as my parents did, and that was an adjustment. In hindsight, perhaps I should have chosen a career where I would be better compensated, but you'd be hard pressed to convince my eighteen year old self of that. I find my job fulfilling and I think our work has a positive impact on our community, which is worth a lot to me, but good will doesn't pay the rent. If you know anyone planning to become an architect advise them to take any route that doesn’t end in crippling loans. Compensation in this industry is not proportional to the education and experience it takes to get here (more on this later). Do you worry about money now? Yes and no. Money is definitely much more of a concern because I don't have a lot of excess, but I do feel I have a good handle on my financial situation and am making progress toward my goals. In the big picture affecting myself and others, I really worry about wage stagnation and income inequality. At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net? I became financially independent when I moved out of state after graduation. I definitely have a safety net in my parents, in the sense that I know I wouldn't end up on the street if things really went south - they've loaned me money when I've had to pay for expensive procedures and that sort of thing. I drive an old car that they transferred to me in exchange for doing all the work on their home renovation - perks of having an architect for a child! I marked the categories below where I had a leg up from my family with an asterisk and included those details. I like to be transparent because I feel like shit when I see people my age who own homes, go on vacation, and eat out at restaurants regularly while those things are not possible for me. It's all relative, so someone is probably looking at me the same way. I'm not living an extravagant lifestyle, but having a degree and a car debt-free is a big deal and I can confidently say I wouldn't be where I am today without my family's help. Do you or have you ever received passive or inherited income? If yes, please explain. Yes. A few years ago I inherited money following the loss of a family member. The majority of it went into my retirement accounts. I used $300 of it to buy a locket in their memory - I wondered if I would regret that purchase since I've never owned nice jewelry before, but I love it and wear it all the time! ______________________________________________________ ASSETS AND DEBT *Retirement balance: ~$12,000 split between 401k and Roth IRA. I started contributing as soon as I could, and some of this was the money I inherited. My employer doesn't do a 401k match and that plan has a higher expense ratio, so I put most of my retirement savings in the Roth IRA. Right now I have $100 deducted pretax for the 401k just so I have a mix of tax deferred savings. Checking account balance: $3,029. Money I will use to pay rent, bills, utilities, and pay off my credit card balance each month. I use YNAB to figure out if I have enough money to make a purchase, so I don't pay a lot of attention to the actual bank balance or let it fool me into thinking "Of course you can 'afford' to spend $200 at Sephora!" (Narrator: She could not.) Savings account balance: $3,235 spread across several accounts. Here are the specifics, if anyone is interested:
Irregular Expenses: $1,631. Money that is set aside for specific purposes but won't be needed for a while. This includes funds for car repairs, taxes, passport/drivers license renewal, annual memberships/subscriptions, and eventual phone, laptop and car replacements. I use the "target balance by date" feature in YNAB. Tracking each future expense is a little over the top, but it gives me a lot of insight into where my money is actually going. I used to have a vague budget but every month there was something "unexpected" that put me in the red, like needing new tires or an annual subscription renewal. Eventually I had to get real about the fact that most of those things COULD have been anticipated and prepared for, had I been paying attention. Once I have more of a financial buffer I'll likely consolidate into simpler categories - for instance, a car category that includes parking, gas, drivers license, registration, maintenance and repairs.
Emergency Fund: $1,604. The emergency fund is really only for income replacement if I get laid off or have to take time off due to injury/disability, which is why it's totally separate. The construction industry has ups and downs and I’ve already been laid off once, which is why I'd like to have a full six months of living expenses to fall back on. First milestone is $3,000 and I'm halfway there!
FSA account balance: $1,200. This covers copays and prescriptions. Credit card debt: $0. I'm proud of this! Before I started using YNAB I struggled with credit card float but I have a better handle on my expenses now. I am actually living within my means and auto-pay my card in full each month. *Student loan debt: $0. See the question above about higher education. Equity: $0, renting. Home ownership? In this economy? ______________________________________________________ INCOME Income progression: I'm skipping over all my minimum wage service industry jobs for the sake of brevity. TL;DR They all sucked. During college I had a few part time jobs during the school year and worked full time during the summer. These jobs ranged from $8-12/hr. My starting salary after graduation was $43,000. This job was a mess and I got "laid off" AKA taken off the projects I was specifically hired for, replaced by a man, and then told they didn't have enough work to keep me. The boss apparently wanted someone who could be his "right hand man" and I "wasn't the right fit." That was definitely true! This job did a number on my self esteem, since I didn’t have enough experience to know that the things I experienced were very inappropriate (even before the layoff) and that the “problems” with my performance were actually just blatant mismanagement and poor communication. Anyway, onward and upwards.... I was hired by my second job at $48,000 with paid overtime (yay!) but the next year I got promoted to $51,000 WITHOUT overtime, so I actually made less money than the year before. I call that my Demotion Promotion. The next year I went up to $55,000, which basically broke even with the paid overtime year. Then a multiyear shit storm of cancelled projects, pandemic, and economic instability happened. Thankfully I stayed employed and at the end of 2020 I was bumped up to $60,000. This is the first time my take-home pay has changed significantly in at least three years. I wish the raise were more, but obviously I'm lucky to even have kept my job during the pandemic, much less gotten a raise. I also asked to be promoted to a role that I am already doing the work for, and I didn't get that promotion, which made me have second thoughts about my prospects at my current firm. I am also in the process of getting my architectural license, and although it doesn't necessarily mean a pay increase, it will theoretically help give me leverage for promotions and an increase in responsibility. Architects are underpaid in general, especially considering the amount of education and experience required to legally call yourself an architect. Historically it's been a "gentleman's profession" for white men who were already wealthy and wanted to be seen as great artists. The whole foundation of the industry is toxic, although it seems to be changing slowly.. Right now I'm focusing on developing skills and getting experience while also advocating for better and more equitable compensation as much as I can. I am definitely concerned about my long term earning potential, but that might just be a result of my limited experience and stifled opportunities for growth. Monthly take home: ~$3,700 Gross pay is $5,000. Deductions:
Taxes: ~$1,050
Insurance: $20 (I get medical, dental and vision insurance through work and this is the only thing that gets deducted - yay!)
401k: $100 pretax
FSA: $100
This is my only income. I have thought about pursuing a second income source, but for now I am spending my time studying for licensure exams and focusing on learning and maximizing my earning potential in my industry. ______________________________________________________ EXPENSES Regular monthly expenses:
Rent: $1,400
I rent a one bedroom apartment with my dog. He is an asshole who doesn't pay his share of rent.
Groceries: $350-$450
I barely eat at restaurants, even before COVID, so this covers essentially all my food plus things like toilet paper and cleaning products. These days I use Instacart a lot and tip pretty generously, so I include the tips in my grocery budget. Part of my produce needs are currently covered by a farm share subscription I got as a birthday gift (such a good gift idea!)
Parking: $125
This is for a secured garage. There is a lot of theft/damage to cars in my neighborhood, and it keeps my car out of the elements. I'm trying to make this car last forever!
Carental insurance: $100
Utilities: $100
Includes electricity, water, gas, sewer, trash.
Internet: $45
Cell phone: $30
Pet insurance: $50
Monthly subscriptions: $45
Includes streaming, spotify, cloud storage, VPN.
Laundry: $30
Prescriptions: $50
Paid from my FSA.
Dog: ~$200
Average monthly cost for vet care, food, supplies, medications
Savings:
Emergency fund: $300
Roth IRA: $200
I have various other categories in my budget that I put money toward each month like donations, gifts, clothing, dining at restaurants. I'm not listing them here since I don't necessarily spend in those areas each month. ______________________________________________________ WEEKLY DIARY
FRIDAY Daily Total: $340.36 (starting off with a bang, apparently!)
7 am: I recently arrived home from traveling, so today is day 1 of the return quarantine. (Before you judge, I was helping a relative who had a big procedure.) I made an effort to use up everything in the fridge before I left, so it's nearly empty. I wake up ravenous and order a breakfast burrito, potatoes and coffee to be delivered: $18.22. I wore my mask door to door, and after a whole day of plane travel without food or water I'm essentially a raisin in human form. I chug water as fast as it'll come out of the tap, inhale my food and log on remotely for work. I have several meetings today. I'm thankful I only need to look presentable from the shoulders up. 11 am: I scheduled a grocery order with Instacart, which came to $202.90. While I'm waiting for the order to arrive and sorting through my inbox, I catch up on my podcasts and hear news of Instacart's recent union busting layoffs. Yikes. Not renewing this year! I hop back on the app and give the delivery person an even more generous tip than usual, and make sure the auto-renewal for Instacart Express is disabled. 1 pm: During lunch I do some online shopping. To thank my friend who house-sat (apartment-sat?) for me, I order a ceramic vase and I'm filling it with little presents and treats: $50. Another friend's birthday is coming up, so I order a few things from another local shop. Her gift comes to $40.46. Finally, I order some pillow inserts for my apartment: $28.78. 2 pm: After attending my meetings and responding to all time sensitive messages, I review consultant drawings and make some notes for what I need to tackle over the course of next week. I snack pretty much continuously. One of my favorite things about working from home is that I can eat freely without dealing with stupid commentary or diet talk. No, Sharon, I don't want to hear about how you're "so bad" for eating an entire cookie or how you're attempting keto for the millionth time. When we were in the office, some of my coworkers would make comments on how the lunch I packed was so healthy, as if it were some moral achievement. Bitch, I'm getting coffee and eating a piece of cake when I'm done with this salad! I have endocrine issues and have struggled with weight fluctuations my entire life. At this point I've done a lot of work to address my relationship with food and dieting, and I know that sort of talk is really not helpful for me. I'm sure my coworkers don't have bad intentions but I'm just over it. 6 pm: After work I sort through the mail and packages that arrived while I was away. I'm so tired. I stretch, do a face mask and eat half a THC gummy before bed. I sleep like the dead.
SATURDAY Daily total: $33.24
10 am: Nothing on my calendar this weekend! I devote the day to cleaning and doing projects around the apartment. I struggle with renting because I want to fix things up and make changes, especially since I do this sort of thing for a living! Even though I'm a really good tenant and have been here for years, my crappy landlord won't allow improvements even if I paid for the materials and/or labor myself. One of my windows has a crack in the glass that the property manager said isn't a problem because "it's not a hole." These windows are like ninety years old, so I'm pretty sure it's gonna become a hole any day now - I'm just hoping it's not winter when that happens. For my next apartment I'd really like to find an individual who owns and manages the property themselves so I have more flexibility and someone will actually appreciate my efforts to keep the place in good shape! Those landlords are few and far between these days. 12 pm: Even though it's cold AF, I open the windows to get some fresh air inside. Spring cleaning can be in January right? To complement my organizing efforts, I order some bins and refill tape for my label maker: $33.24. 3 pm: I lay on the floor, hoping to bask in the silence and lack of responsibilities. However, my neighbors are loud af. I wonder how much you have to spend on rent to get an apartment with any semblance of sound isolation? 7 pm: I mostly forget to eat today and end up feeling like crap as a result. This is not good for anyone but especially people with hormone issues. I end up eating a bunch of beef jerky and Starbursts for dinner instead of an actual meal (do as I say, not as I do, I guess.....)
SUNDAY Daily total: $0
9:30 am: Slept in late again. I had crazy night terrors the entire night - they get a lot worse for me during periods of stress and anxiety, and I’m sure my beef & candy dinner didn’t help. Weed helps, hence the gummies. I wear an Apple Watch and when I look at my sleep patterns it's really obvious which nights I used THC. Thank you, drugs! I eat a big bowl of fruit and yogurt for breakfast - I splurged on berries when I got groceries! I left coffee grounds steeping overnight for cold brew, so I prep that too. I don't mind drinking iced coffee in the winter and it's so much easier than doing pour-over every day. 1 pm: I schedule a drive-through COVID test for later in the week. The weather is pretty godawful - it was supposed to snow but that quickly became freezing rain instead. I manage to sneak in a few short walks with my dog but otherwise we spend the day snuggled under a blanket eating snacks and watching Schitt's Creek.
MONDAY Daily total: $95
8 am: Very few meetings today, so I dig through the rest of the emails and messages I missed while traveling last week. 12 pm: During lunch I lay in my bed - one of the luxuries of remote work, second only to elastic waistbands. On the other hand, I have pandemic fatigue and it's being exacerbated by the shitty weather. Returning to isolation in my apartment is jarring. The space is small. My loud neighbors suck. I wish I could go on a long walk. I miss my family. I want a hug. I am tired of hearing people complain about how hard "isolation" is when they have a house, partner, backyard, cable, and a ten person "pod" to socialize with. The only human contact I had for nearly a year was with my dentist drilling out an old filling. When I traveled to see my family I quarantined upon arrival and got tested, but I still didn't feel comfortable snuggling and hugging them since we would need to be in and out of hospitals for the procedure and appointments. It was still wonderful to see them in person, despite the circumstances. My stress and loneliness is fuel for the fire of my rage at people who still don't take this shit seriously. I cope by snuggling my dog, who I am always thankful for but especially now. I'm really glad that we are able to spend so much time together. 1:30 pm: I spend the rest of the day cleaning up drawings and prepping for a meeting tomorrow. 7 pm: I got a surprise bill in the mail for one of the COVID tests I took when I was traveling. I have to pay $95 on top of the copay at the visit - this is the price WITH insurance. Our healthcare system is garbage. 12 am: I can’t sleep. I get a tickle in my throat. I think it’s a result of having the radiator on for several days straight - my nose, mouth and eyes are all very dry - but I get up and check my temperature (normal) and make sure I can still smell the detergent scent on my pajamas (I can). I put in some eye drops before going back to bed.
TUESDAY Daily total: $0 and some sanity
8:57 am: I stay in bed until the very last minute. \a frenzy of anxiety that lasts the entire day** 5 pm: The focus of my anxiety runs the gamut from work to COVID to earthquakes to my dog’s health to increasing cost of living. I make it through work despite my rapidly crumbling mental state. I try to give myself a break and remind myself that it’s okay if I’m not doing my absolute best in the midst of all this. In any case, the meeting I prepared for yesterday got pushed to next week and nobody informed me. 🙄 I check my temperature. While I’m at it, I take my blood pressure and note that too. P.S. Regarding anxiety disorders, I am prescribed medication and go to therapy. I highly recommend seeking therapy if you’re having trouble dealing with things on your own - you don't need to have a diagnosed disorder to benefit from it. Many providers do sliding scale. 6 pm: The weather is absolutely disgusting. I have very few opportunities for exercise between bad weather, no gyms, and living in an apartment above someone else. Even if I suit up in all my rain gear, my dog refuses to walk very far when it's wet. Maybe I should move my coffee table tomorrow so I can do some weights or yoga. 7 pm: I catch up on the WSB/GME mayhem and memes, then I play around with the forecasting tool on my 401k website. After my upcoming paycheck I might experiment with bumping my 401k contribution up. If my living expenses don't increase, I might be able to get closer to 10% over the course of this year without too much pain. 9 pm: I snuggle my dog and play games on my phone until bedtime.
WEDNESDAY Daily total: $37.50
7 am: My farm share box arrives today. Thank god - I dropped the ball and got very few veggies in my grocery order, plus I've been rationing the berries I spent so much money on. 9:30 am: I get my COVID swab. I had to drive half an hour to get there. I wonder what the bill will be for this one. Results could take up to a week. Why isn't this easier? On the way home I get gas: $37.50. 10 am: Since I got back earlier than expected and it's not raining (!!!!) I take the opportunity to go on a walk with my dog. It's really nice to sweat and get my heart rate up a bit. 11:30 am: My dog was snoring so loudly that I had to mute myself during a call. I guess the walk wore him out! 8 pm: I finish up work and join a zoom happy hour with some friends. I bust out a bottle of wine that I got for Christmas. The call is pretty fun, although by the end I definitely have screen fatigue. I go to bed pretty much immediately.
THURSDAY Daily total: $7.89
6 am: After about 5 am I couldn't get back to sleep, so I get up and take the dog for a walk. Until I get a negative test I've been wearing my mask even outdoors, and it leads to condensation from my breath forming droplets on my eyelashes. When it's cold enough, they freeze. Facial icicles - just another thrilling pandemic experience. After I get home I towel off my dog's muddy paws, rinse my face and get to work, since I have six hours straight of meetings today. (Ugh) ~a million years later~ 6 pm: I order a new digital thermometer because mine consistently tells me my temperature is just above 96 degrees and that can't be true? Anyway, it's $7.89. I detach my butt from my desk chair and go make some pasta with pesto for dinner. 8 pm: I start getting my shit together to study for my next licensure exam. They've been looming over me. I got derailed by COVID - maybe I can pass the rest in 2021? If there were a guaranteed raise or promotion I'd probably be a lot more motivated to shell out $1400+ for these tests.... 9 pm: I figure preparing to study is enough for today. I download a few library books on my kindle, take half a THC gummy and snuggle in bed to read. 12 am: Before I go to sleep I check my phone and see that I tested negative for COVID! I'm glad the results came back so fast, and it's a huge relief - I'm very thankful for all the measures I took to travel safely even though it was not at all fun or comfortable. Stoned and sleepy, I dream sweet dreams of the paycheck hitting my account tomorrow morning, and I can't fucking wait to budget it. ______________________________________________________ WEEKLY EXPENSES
Food + Drink: $221.12
$202.90 groceries
$18.22 delivery
Fun / Entertainment: $0 (Thank god library books and fucking around on the internet are free)
Home + Health: $164.91
$102.89 medical
$62.02 home items
Clothes + Beauty: $0
Transport: $37.50 on gas
Other: $90.46 on gifts
GRAND TOTAL: $513.99 ______________________________________________________ REFLECTION This was definitely a higher spending week than usual, primarily due to the fact that I was just returning from out of town and had to put gas in the car, which doesn't happen often since I work from home right now and walk most places. I think my spending is typically pretty responsible. My main financial priority in 2020 was creating a realistic budget - I had been using YNAB for a while but kept underestimating how much money I needed in each category. I dialed that in, and now in 2021 I'd like to focus on minimizing expenses where possible (especially things that aren't important to me) as well as saving (both in my emergency fund and retirement) so I can get that sweet, sweet compound interest. In 2021 I'd also really like to improve my wardrobe and look a bit more professional, but I'm obviously not motivated to spend money on work clothes while we are still 100% remote. Long term I would really like to increase my income, especially since the cost of living is only going up. That means getting my license is high on the list of priorities. Hope you enjoyed the diary, and let me know if there is anything unclear that I can elaborate on further! (edited to fix a few grammar and math issues!)
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